Socio-Economic Implications of Climate Change Initiatives: Priorities & Implications for India

Socio-Economic Implications of Climate Change Initiatives: Priorities & Implications for India N. V. V. Raghava, Sr. Infrastructure Specialist, World Bank, India International Convention Centre, Hyderabad, India

Outline • Overview of Climate change • Climate Change - Development – DRM* • Social and Economic Vulnerability • South Asia Perspective • India – key climate change & DRM issues • Going Forward • World Bank’s Activities in India on CC** and DRM • Key points to take away * DRM - Disaster Risk Management; ** CC – Climate change

Outline • Overview of Climate change • Climate Change - Development – DRM • Social and Economic Vulnerability • South Asia Perspective • India – key climate change & DRM issues • Going Forward • World Bank’s Activities in India on CC and DRM • Key points to take away

Overview of Climate Change “Today's development challenges are complicated by climate change, a reality that threatens all countries, particularly developing ones” • The steep increase in greenhouse gases since the Industrial Revolution has transformed the relationship between people and the environment

Overview ..2 • Earth will get warmer on average, at unprecedented speed Global Temperature increases over time n Co2 concentrations Source: World Development Report 2010

Overview..3 • Individuals’ emissions in high-income countries overwhelm those in developing countries Source: World Development Report 2010

Overview..4 • Impacts will be felt everywhere, including developed countries. • E.g., the 2003 heat wave killed more than 70,000 people in Europe • but much of the damage will be in developing countries.

Climate Change – Development - DRM • Poverty reduction and sustainable development remain core global priorities, particularly for developing countries … • a quarter of humanity still lives on less than $1.25 a day • one billion people lack clean drinking water; 1.6 billion, electricity; and 3 billion, adequate sanitation; and • a quarter of all developing country children are still malnourished

Climate Change – Development – DRM ..2 • Development will get harder with climate change; particularly for developing countries • They are more vulnerable, bearing about 75 – 80% of the costs of damages caused by the changing climate. • Could result in permanent reductions in GDP of 4-5% for Africa and South Asia. • There is possibility increasing risks towards catastrophic events related to climate change • Though the probability distribution of such catastrophic risks is unknown, more aggressive mitigation efforts will always help.

Social and Economic Vulnerability Key Factor Uncertainty Uncertainty Uncertainty • Substantial uncertainties remain around climate change’s ecological and economic impacts Ability to adapt, cost Extremes of Weather Pace and Magnitude of Warming Effects on natural systems and humans New Technology – discovery, dissemination, adaption Quantum of un-avoided residual damages

Social and Economic Vulnerability ..2 • Developing countries are more vulnerable, bcz.. • They depend more directly on climate-sensitive natural resources for income and well-being. • Most are in tropical and subtropical regions already subject to highly variable climate. • They lack sufficient financial and technical capacities to manage increasing climate risk.

South Asia Perspective Geography, poverty and population density make South Asia more vulnerable to the impacts of climate change. • Possible impacts of climate change • Water resources get affected, through effects on the monsoon • Melting of Himalayan glaciers • Rising seas may submerge much of the Maldives and inundate 18 percent of Bangladesh's land • With increasing temperatures, and sea level rise, more intense and frequent cyclones, floods and winds are likely; increasing risks to coastal areas

India – Key CC and DRM issues • India is highly vulnerable to natural hazards, particularly earthquakes, flood, drought, cyclone and landslides. • 68% - susceptible to droughts • About 8% prone to floods • 5700 / 7500 km coast, prone to cyclones • 60% landmass – earthquake prone (of varying intensities) Reported Catastrophe losses in India, 1965-2001, US$M

Going Forward.. • an equitable and effective global climate deal is needed • between the countries of the world. • window of opportunity is closing • to choose the right policies and promote development • Success hinges on changing the behavior and shifting public opinion • That is why we are discussing these issues here

World Bank activities in India • Undertaking some analytical activities and pilot projects Climate Change • India – Options for Low Carbon Development • Develop analytical capacity to identify low-carbon growth opportunities • facilitate informed decision making • Andhra Pradesh Drought Adaptation pilot project • Management and Physical action plans. Learning from villages and scaling up • State Climate change action plans • Orissa, Himachal, Karnataka • Himachal Pradesh – Environmental Sustainability and Climate change

World Bank activities in India ..2 • More reconstruction support so far; now moved to mitigation Disaster Risk Mgmt • Assisting the GoI in effectively responding to disasters • Latur, Maharashtra earthquake in 1993; Orissa super-cyclone in 1999; Bhuj, Gujarat earthquake in 2001; Andhra Pradesh cyclone in 2005; the Tsunami in South India in 2004; Bihar floods in 2008 • National Cyclone Risk Mitigation Project • the first ex-ante risk mitigation project in SAR • concrete example in demonstrating the linkages between disaster risk reduction and climate change adaptation benefiting vulnerable coastal communities. • Shows India’s leadership

Key “Take Away” points “A climate-smart world is within reach …. ..if we act now, act together, and act differently” • Acting now is essential, or else options disappear and costs increase • Acting together is key to keeping the costs down and effectively tackling both adaptation and mitigation • Acting differently is required to enable a sustainable future in a changing world – transforming world energy systems, building infrastructure. THANK YOU

Socio-Economic Implications of Climate Change Initiatives: Priorities & Implications for India