Capturing the Green Jobs Opportunity

1. Capturing the Green Jobs Opportunity Joel Rogers UW-Madison, COWS, CSI, MIP, GLSC, Apollo, G4A EARN, Las Vegas, December 9, 2008

2. What I’ll talk about • What are green jobs? How do we improve them in state policy? • How dirty and inefficient our current energy generation and use is, and why efficiency’s progressive • An easy place to start

3. Skepticism welcome

4. Blinding self-concern not

5. I made some slides for you

6. Like this slide.

7. And this one.

8. I wonder about PowerPoint.

9. Power corrupts.

10. Absolute power corrupts absolutely.

11. Absolute PowerPoint just can’t be good.

12. The end of the Anthropocene? • 8M BC-1780, CO2 in atmosphere was steady (give or take 10 parts per million) at ~ 280ppm • Increased 35ppm over next 150 yrs (1930s), 15ppm over next 40 yrs (1970s), 20ppm over next 20 (199 ~ 0s), 20ppm over next ten (2005) • CO2 is 385 ppm today (2008) • At present rates of growth, it should reach 500 ppm before mid-century • Last time that happened was the Eocene period, 50 million years ago, when sea levels were 300 feet higher than today • Global warming already associated with massive ice cap melting, extreme weather, crop collapse, population migration

13. 700 CO2 in 2050 (with business as usual) CO2 in 2100 (w/BAU) 600 500 400 CO2 PPMV CO2 now 300 10 Degrees Celsius 200 0 100 –10 The last 160,000 years and the next 100 years Temperature difference from now °C CO2concentration (ppmv) 160 120 80 40 Now Time (thousands of years)

15. Green jobs: what’s real and what’s not and how to improve

16. What are “green jobs”? “Green” is work devoted to climate mitigation or adaptation or, more broadly, to improving productive use of natural capital “Green jobs” (GJs) are either actual jobs devoted to these tasks either wholly (close to zero) or partly (soon, virtually all) or FTEs devoted wholly to them Even on an FTE basis, most GJs look a lot like current jobs. The difference lies less in their technologies, materials, or skills than in what those are used for. This said, there are clusters of characteristic, or expected, green job activity that will require some reordering and reframing of skills transfer

17. GJ estimates in energy Today Projected in 2030 Source: Bezdek (MISI)/ASES

18. GJ jobs in misc related sectors Source: PERI & CAP

19. RE jobs per Project Investment Source: REPP

20. Potential RE MFG by state Source: REPP

21. A modest estimate on RE Source: Kammen, Kapadia, and Fripp, 2006

22. Wind Production jobs Source: COWS

23. Energy Efficiency Jobs Source: COWS

24. BioFuels Production Jobs Source: COWS/BLS

25. How to capture the GJ opportunity • Map your economy, identify competitive advantage or local demand, maintain real-time data on demand, wages, skills needs, etc. • Make public training responsive to but not bullied by existing employer demand; upgrade that demand using any tools you have, including regulation, subsidies, standards, etc. • Require local benefit, credentialing and transferability and recognition of skills, career ladders • Build an industry, not just project demand

26. A career ladder

27. How dirty and wasteful we are, and why improving that will help the poor

28. Dirty generation

29. Measure for measure • A quad is a quadrillion BTUs • 1.0 Btu = 252 calories • 1Btu/hour = 0.293 W • 3.413 Btu/hr = 1.0 watt • 1 Quad/hour = 293,000,000,000,000 W = 293,000 gW or 293 million mW • 1 Quad = 170 million barrels of oil equivalent (boe)

30. U.S. energy flows (1)

31. US energy flows (2)

32. Efficiency is the first fuel Source: ACEEE

33. 10.00 IGCC w/o CCS 9.0 Wind @ 29% CF 8.0 NGCC 7.0 Biomass 6.0 5.0 Pulverized Coal w/o CCS Nuclear 4.0 Energy Efficiency 3.0 0 10 20 30 40 50 Cheap and getting cheaper Cents per KWh Price of carbon per ton Source: ACEEE

34. Good financial returns

35. Building energy consumption • About $400B annually • About 50 percent savings available on “simple” cost-effective basis (i.e., lifetime energy savings from efficiency measures exceed their purchase, installation, and maintenance costs) • That’s a lot of money

36. Benefits of building energy retrofits Income to tenants and owners Climate and public health Extended building life and higher property values Tenant/occupant health and productivity Non-offshorable employment, at about 12.5 person years of employment per $1M invested

37. Median household consumption

38. “Drive ’til you qualify” Source: Center for Neighborhood Technology and National Housing Policy Center, 2007

39. Gains from one less car Source: ICF International, 2007

40. Comprehensive urban building retrofits as a project

41. Building contribution to CO2 emissions U.S. sources of CO2 Building contribution to CO2 emissions Building contribution to CO2 emissions Building contribution to CO2 emissions Transportation 32% Residential 21% Buildings 43% Commercial 17% Industrial 5% Industry 25% Source: Pew Center on Global Climate Change

42. 131.4 billion new square feet 213.4 billion new square feet of built space 82.0 billion new square feet from replacement 295.6 billion square feet in 2000 427.3 billion square feet in 2030 Rebuilding America? Source: Nelson, “Toward a new Metropolis”

43. 100 US Metros

44. Why cities are great • Big population with associated buying power • Strategic location and regional linkages • Population and firm density, with agglomeration effects, complementary skill sets, associated innovation • Infrastructure (ports, airports, other transportation networks) • Higher wages/productivity • Lower waste • Centers for research, education, health care, “knowledge” economy, finance, business services, hospitality, etc. • More diverse, tolerant, attractive to youth and immigrants • More progressive in politics • More easily organized

45. The riddle of unclaimed value

46. Benefits of building energy retrofits Income to tenants and owners Climate and public health Extended building life and higher property values Tenant/occupant health and productivity Non-offshorable employment, at about 12.5 person years of employment per $1M invested

47. RRIDDLLS Regulatory surround is bad (efficiency not encouraged) Risk aversion among tenants and owners, especially given uncertain duration of tenancy/ownership Information problems on everything (benefits, cost, reliable service) Disaggregated savings Disruption Lack of capital Lack of interest Split incentives (tenants vs. owners, developers vs. owners)

48. E2 will buy and install cost-effective energy-efficiency measures in your home or business with no up-front payment from you and no new debt obligation. The cost of this service included, your net energy bill should drop immediately and always be lower than it would have been without E2 participation. Your service obligation ends when you quit this property and is suspended during any period of measure malfunction, which we will repair at no cost to you. An offer they can’t refuse?

49. Solving the riddle

50. Sample utility bill Your expected (pre-E2-participation) energy bill $170 Your energy consumption this month $135 E2 service charge $ 25 You owe $160