MegaWatts on Main Street A Carbon Finance Speaker Series at Yale Presenting Lori Bird in

1. MegaWatts on Main Street A Carbon Finance Speaker Series at Yale Presenting Lori Bird in “Expanding Renewable Energy Markets in the U.S.: Current Drivers and Examination of Potential Policy Scenarios” Brought to you by the Center for Business and the Environment at Yale through the generous support of the Emily Hall Tremaine Foundation

2. Overview • Renewable energy development trends • Policy drivers – RPS, tax credits, incentives • Voluntary purchasers of renewables • Federal policy proposals and potential impacts National Renewable Energy Laboratory Innovation for Our Energy Future

3. U.S. Electric Generation Mix National Renewable Energy Laboratory Innovation for Our Energy Future

4. U.S. Renewable Generation by Technology (excluding hydropower) National Renewable Energy Laboratory Innovation for Our Energy Future

5. Renewable Electric Capacity Growth Annual growth rates (excluding hydropower) National Renewable Energy Laboratory Innovation for Our Energy Future

6. PV Production Surged in 2008 PV production surged globally just as economy declined National Renewable Energy Laboratory Innovation for Our Energy Future National Renewable Energy Laboratory Innovation for Our Energy Future

7. U.S. PV Installations Through 2008 Solar PV capacity grew 44% in 2008; Grid connected installations growing faster National Renewable Energy Laboratory Innovation for Our Energy Future

8. Policy and Incentives WorldWater & Power and Alternity Power Atlantic County Wastwater Treatment Plant, 8 MW solar-wind hybrid, NJ What is driving renewable energy development in the U.S? National Renewable Energy Laboratory Innovation for Our Energy Future

9. Recovery Act Funding within EERE(in $billions) • ARRA Incentives for RE: • Tax Credits or Cash Grants (§1603) • Loan Guarantees (§1703 and §1705) • Manufacturing Tax Credits (§48c) Total Funding for EERE = $16.8 billion National Renewable Energy Laboratory Innovation for Our Energy Future

10. RE Obligations: States Have Been Leading -- Collectively call for nearly 60,000 MW of new RE by 2020 -- New CA Executive Order calling for 33% by 2020 National Renewable Energy Laboratory Innovation for Our Energy Future

11. New RE Needed to Meet State RPS Source: LBNL National Renewable Energy Laboratory Innovation for Our Energy Future

12. States Leading Solar Energy Development State RES policies with solar-specific targets and other state solar programs (combined with federal financial incentives) are driving PV National Renewable Energy Laboratory Innovation for Our Energy Future

13. Regional Supply/Demand Balance • Analysis of regional renewable energy supply and demand from RPS and voluntary markets • State RPS demand is generally regional because of deliverability requirements • Some regions have already experienced shortages; high REC prices Examination of the Regional Supply and Demand Balance for Renewable Electricity in the U.S. through 2015 http://www.nrel.gov/docs/fy09osti/45041.pdf 13

14. Supply/demand analysis Shortages New England New York Mid-Atlantic Notable Surpluses Midwest Hartland Texas West Key uncertainties: transmission access, offshore wind Note: This analysis does not assume trading between the regions specified, though such trading may be feasible and could possibly address shortages 14

15. Energy Efficiency Portfolio Standards States (US) with Electricity EEPS and Stand-Alone Policies