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Grzegorz Dobroczek National Bank of Poland

New Polish estimation method based on migration statistics and migrant surveys International Technical Meeting on Measuring Remittances June 11-12 2009, Washington DC. Grzegorz Dobroczek National Bank of Poland. Agenda. Migration pattern after EU accession New estimation method

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Grzegorz Dobroczek National Bank of Poland

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  1. New Polish estimation method based on migration statistics and migrant surveys International Technical Meeting on Measuring Remittances June 11-12 2009,Washington DC Grzegorz Dobroczek National Bank of Poland

  2. Agenda • Migration pattern after EU accession • New estimation method • UK & Ireland - Survey among Polish migrants • Germany – compensation of employees • Other countries • Funds transferred to Poland

  3. Migration pattern after EU accession The stock of Polish migrants abroad (in thous.) Source: Polish Central Statistical Office Since Poland joined the EU, we have observed a strong growth of labor emigration and also itsreorientation. While few years ago the most significant country of destination was Germany, its importance decreased in favour ofthe United Kingdom and Ireland - two countries that opened their labor market as early as in May 2004. Source: Polish Central Statistical Office

  4. New estimation method The new estimation method rests to a greatextent on determining: • number of Poles working abroad, • period of their employment • the level of their compensation • their inclinations to transfer the money to Poland Estimation process has been divided into twoparts • part one – separate estimations for the United Kingdom, Ireland and Germany - countries of the greatest significance • part two - estimations for all other countries

  5. NBP Survey in the United Kingdom & Ireland • Designed by the NBP and conducted for the first time during the summer 2007 by a private market research company. • The sample size was equal in both countries - 800 Polish migrants in the United Kingdom and 800 in Ireland. • The survey was carried out for the second time in October and November 2008- 1500 Polish migrants in the United Kingdom and 1000 in Ireland. • To get more reliable results the sample was stratified accordingto ageand regional distribution. • The survey was carried out ina households as a face-to-face interview. • The questionnaire was divided into two parts: • migrants’ characteristics • transfers’ characteristics

  6. Polish migrants in the United Kingdom & Ireland Gender structure Education structure Age structure Polish migrants in the UK & Ireland are rather young and well educated Length of current migration The greatest part of Polish migrants have already spent between 1 and 3 years in the UK & Ireland Over 40% plan to remainfor more than 3 years. Source: own calculation based on NBP Survey made in 2007

  7. Remittances from the United Kingdom and Ireland The volume of last transfer from Ireland (€) Do you send money to Poland? Mean = 1300 € The volume of last transfer from the United Kingdom (£) Mean = 410 £ The fraction of remitters is higher in Ireland The average transfer is also higher from Ireland Source: own calculation based on the NBP Survey made in 2007

  8. Estimation method In case of workers remittances’ crucial deductions from the survey are: - - the size of fraction of migratns who remit - the size of average transfers in quarter. The NBP’s method of estimation: workers remmitances’=level of long-term migration (workers) * fraction ofmigrants who remit* average transfer Compensation of employees= level of short-term migration (workers) *wages Expenditure by seasonal and border workers= level of short-term migration(workers) *spendings abroad Taxes paid by seasonal and border workers (other private transfers)= level of short-term migration(workers) *taxes

  9. Germany – compensation of employees Since Poland joined the EU (2004), we have observed a decline of short-term emigration. Polish migration to Germany has short-term character (mainly seasonal workers in agriculture). German labour market in not open for Polish workers, so we have administrative data – number of work licences for Polish workers.

  10. Estimation for other countries Major data source is migrants statistics (Polish CSO): - number of Polish migrants, - fraction of migrants who stay abroad less then 12 months (about 50%) and more than 12 months. - fraction of migrats who work abroad Crucial assumptions (based on NBP’s survey): Workers remittances: - size of fraction of migratns who remit (40,1%) - size of average transfer (38% of wages) - wages (20% more then minimal wage) Compensation of employees: - interpolation of migrants statistics based on LFS (CSO) - migrants work for 1.5 months in quarter - size of expediture abroad (in 2008 40,3% of net wages) - taxes (in 2008 14,2%)

  11. Funds transferred to Poland Transfers* to Poland against Polish workers earnings abroad (in EUR million) In 2008 EUR 5 bilon has been transferred to Poland by Poles working abroad. In 2002 – 2008 the fastest increase has been observed in transfers from the United Kingdom and Ireland. In 2007 transfers from those countries were the biggest and amounted to EUR 1.3 and EUR 1.2 billionrespectively. Source: NBP Balance of Payments * Transfers = workers remmitances plus net compensation of employes (excluding taxes & accomodation abroad)

  12. Thank you for your attention!

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