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Project Participants

Synthesis of Arctic System Carbon Cycle Research Through Model-Data Fusion Studies Using Atmospheric Inversion and Process-Based Approaches (SASS PI Meeting – 26-27 March 2006) A. David McGuire Institute of Arctic Biology - University of Alaska Fairbanks. Project Participants. McGuire - UAF

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Project Participants

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  1. Synthesis of Arctic System Carbon Cycle Research Through Model-Data Fusion Studies Using Atmospheric Inversion and Process-Based Approaches(SASS PI Meeting – 26-27 March 2006)A. David McGuireInstitute of Arctic Biology - University of Alaska Fairbanks

  2. Project Participants • McGuire - UAF • Melillo, Kicklighter, Peterson - MBL • McClelland – Texas A&M • Follows, Prinn - MIT • Zhuang - Purdue

  3. Project Overview • Background • General Questions • General Strategy • Tasks • Time Line • Education and Outreach

  4. Interactions of High Latitude Ecosystems with the Earth’s Climate System Regional Climate Global Climate Exchange of radiatively active gases (CO2 and CH4) Delivery of freshwater to Arctic Ocean Water and energy exchange Impacts High Latitude Ecosystems

  5. 32-44% of global soil carbon stored in high-latitudes

  6. Key Fluxes of Carbon in the Arctic System Atmosphere CO2 CH4 CO2 Land Arctic Ocean DOC, DIC, POC Permafrost Total C Pacific Ocean Atlantic Ocean

  7. General Questions Guiding Research • What are the geographic patterns of fluxes of CO2 and CH4 over the Pan-Arctic region and how is the balance changing over time? (Spatial Patterns and Temporal Variability) • What processes control the sources and sinks of CO2 and CH4 over the Pan-Arctic region and how do the controls change with time? (Processes and Interactions)

  8. Atmospheric inversion estimates of Arctic System CO2 and CH4 dynamics Arctic Terrestrial and Marine Ecosystems • Observations of • Arctic System • CO2 and CH4 • dynamics: • experiments • fluxes • inventories • disturbance regimes • remote sensing • atmospheric and marine • concentrations Process-based estimates of Arctic System CO2 and CH4 dynamics General Strategy: Model-Data Fusion

  9. Tasks 1. Conduct model-data fusion studies with process-based models of various components of high latitude terrestrial C dynamics including a. Terrestrial CO2 (McGuire lead) and CH4 exchange (Zhuang lead), and b. Transfer of C from high latitude terrestrial ecosystems to the mouth of rivers in the Pan-Arctic Drainage Basin (Melillo/Peterson/McClelland/Kicklighter lead) 2. Conduct model-data fusion studies with a process-based model of marine CO2 exchange in oceans adjacent to the high latitude terrestrial regions (Follows lead) 3. Improve atmospheric inversions of CO2 and CH4 across high latitude regions through better incorporation of data and process-understanding on CO2 and CH4 dynamics (Prinn lead). 4. Project synthesis (All).

  10. Soil temperature Vegetation type;Snow pack; Soil moisture Terrestrial Ecosystem Model (TEM) couples biogeochemistry and soil thermal dynamics Tool for Process-Based Terrestrial CO2 Exchange

  11. 90° 60° 30° g C m-2 yr-1 -75 -60 -45 -30 -15 0 10 25 Sink Source Strategy to evaluate seasonal exchange of carbon dioxide simulated by terrestrial biosphere models Observed and simulated atmospheric CO2 concentrations at Mould Bay Station, Canada (-119.35oW, 76.25oN) during the 1980s Spatial patterns of change in vegetation carbon over the twenty year period spanning from 1980-2000 as simulated by the Terrestrial Ecosystem Model (TEM) Incorporation of freeze-thaw dynamics into the Terrestrial Ecosystem model improves the simulation of the seasonal and decadal exchange of carbon dioxide exchange with the atmosphere (Zhuang, Euskirchen, McGuire, Melillo, Romanovsky)

  12. Tool for Process-Based Terrestrial CH4 Exchange Methane Consumption and Emission Module (MCEM) Hydrological Module (HM) Water Table and Soil Moisture Profile Soil Thermal Module (STM) Soil Temperature Profile Active Layer Depth 40 35 20 10 0 –1 Terrestrial Ecosystem Model (TEM) Source Sink Labile carbon Vegetation Characteristics (g CH4 m-2 year-1)

  13. Methane Consumption and Emission Module Atmospheric CH4 Concentration (AM) Plant- Mediated Emission (PM) Ebullition (EB) Diffusion (DSA) Soil / Water Surface (Oxic Soil) Upper Boundary CH4 Consumption (MC) Water Table (Anoxic Soil) CH4 Production (MP) Lower Boundary (Zhuang et al., 2004 GBC)

  14. Net Methane Fluxes in the 1990s Emissions = 56 Tg CH4 yr-1 Consumption = -7 Tg CH4 yr-1 Net Methane Fluxes = 49 Tg CH4 yr-1 (Zhuang et al., 2004GBC)

  15. Tool for Transfer of C from Land to Ocean Shaded area = Modified TEM CO2 (g) CO2 (g) fire GPP abvR soilR Soil Inorganic Carbon Vegetation Chemical Weathering rootR HCO3- CO3-2 CO2(g) CO2(aq) harvest Soil Organic Matter RH leachCO2 leachALK evadeCO2 CO2 (g) CO2(aq) Alkalinity POC erodePOC leachDOC DOC Stream Export

  16. Yukon River Project Participants U. S. Geological Survey: National Research Program National Stream Quality Accounting Network District Offices AK, CA, GA, OR, TX, WI Alaska Science Center Universities: Florida State University University of Southern Mississippi Yale University With thanks to: Environment Canada Water Survey of Canada Yukon Territorial Government Alaska Inter-Tribal Council Alaska Department of Fish and Game Bureau of Land Management National Park Service U S Fish and Wildlife Service Citizen Volunteers

  17. 2002 between Eagle and Stevens Village 2003 between Stevens Village and Pilot Station 2004 between Whitehorse, Canada, and Eagle

  18. Carbon Flux, Water Year 2002 5 6.55 Tg C 188 km3 DIC 4.5 PIC 4 DOC POC 3.5 Total C Export Total Water Discharge 3 3.63 Tg C 104 km3 Flux (g C yr-1 x 1012) 2.5 2.63 Tg C 76 km3 2 1.5 0.79 Tg C 24 km3 1 0.36 Tg C 12 km3 0.5 0 Porcupine River Tanana River Yukon River at Eagle Yukon River at Stevens Village Yukon River at Pilot Station

  19. Annual DOC Leaching from Contemporary Ecosystems in the Yukon River Watershed during the 1990s 0 0.5 1 2 4 8 16 22 g C m-2 yr-1 Total: 1.0 Tg C yr-1 or 1.15 g C m-2 yr-1 TEM 6.0

  20. PARTNERS Rivers River km3/y Mackenzie 308 Yukon 200 Kolyma 132 Lena 525 Yenisey 620 Ob’ 404

  21. Tools for Ocean C Transfers • MIT Ocean Circulation Model • MIT Ocean Biogeochemistry Model

  22. Physical Framework • MITgcm • Global configuration, 1/4o resolution • Cubed-sphere grid configuration • Polar oceans resolved, dynamic ice model • Dimitris Menemenlis (JPL), Chris Hill (MIT) et al.

  23. Physical model – flow speed

  24. Current Ocean Biogeochemistry Model • Explicit C, P, O, Fe, Alk (Ca) cycles • Prognostic variables DIC, O2, PO4, DOP, FeT, Alk • Air-sea exchange of CO2, O2 • DOC • linked to DOP with fixed stoichiometry • No continental sources • “Semi-labile”, 6 month lifetime • Simple parameterization of export production (P, Fe, light limitation) • Optional explicit ecosystem (2 phytoplankton classes, single grazer, explicit Si cycle) • Physics – coarse res, generally no Arctic Ocean!

  25. Previous work: Interannual variability of air-sea CO2 flux Ocean model McKinley et al. (2004) Atmospheric inverse model Bousquet et al. (2000)

  26. This work: Biogeochemistry • “Offline” model driven by ECCO2 physics • Hemispheric configuration • Estimate air-sea fluxes, distributions, etc 1992 – 2001 • Continental sources/treatment of DOC, DIC • Explore sensitivity to lifetime of DOC • Simple export production model (explicit ecosystem)

  27. Tool for Atmospheric Inversions of CO2 and CH4 • MATCH: Model of Atmospheric Transport • and Chemistry

  28. Sinks Sources Sample Sample observed modeled solved for Inverse Modeling Air Parcel transport transport Air Parcel Air Parcel

  29. Dargaville, McGuire, and Rayner 2002 (Climatic Change)

  30. Figure 2. MATCH simulates effect of North Atlantic Oscillation on CH4 AGAGE observations (red) versus MATCH (black) at MaceHead, Ireland NAO (+) winds MIRROR PLOT NAO (-) winds MIRROR PLOT Ref: Chen & Prinn, 2005; Chen, 2004

  31. Time Line of Research • First Year – Organize data sets and finish up any necessary model development • Second Year – Conduct model-data fusion studies with the models • Third Year – Project Synthesis

  32. Education and Outreach • Undergraduate and Graduate Curriculum • Courses • MIT Course on Global Climate Change • Undergraduate, Graduate, and Postdoc Research • Graduate Students – Purdue • MIT – UROP • Postdocs – UAF, MIT • Public Outreach • Presentations: Policy Meetings/Workshops • MIT Global Change Forum • MIT Knight Science Journalism Fellows

  33. End of slideshow

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