A problem-oriented categorisation of FTA-methods for transport planning

1. The 4th International Seville Conference onFuture-Oriented Technology Analysis (FTA)12 & 13 May 2011 A problem-oriented categorisation of FTA-methods for transport planning Jens Schippl and Torsten Fleischer Karlsruhe Institute of Technology Institute of Technology Assessment and System Analyses

2. A problem-oriented categorisation of FTA-methods for transport planning Challenges for Transport Planning Unintended effects are unavoidable • Transport is a socio-technical field that characterised by • immense importance for economic development and quality of life • high public interest / many controversies • complexity / transport is derived demand • risks and uncertainties • Policy interventions lead to unintended or adverse effects in the transport system and beyond (economic, social, environment). Examples: • new roads might lead to additional traffic; • Introduction of biofuels might lead to deforestation and pressure on the food sector • Flyvbjerg et al. 2003: cost of Megaprojects underestimated, revenues overestimated, environmental effects under evaluated > Uncertainties are a challenge for prospective analyses in transport

3. A problem-oriented categorisation of FTA-methods for transport planning Tools and Methods in Transport Planning • A wide range of tools and methods are applied in transport planning to anticipate unintended effects • The tools and methods are of very different character: • Sophisticated ICT-based models, CBA, MCDA but also focus groups, surveys, workshops, citizen’ consultation, pTA approaches etc. • In the last decades discursive methods became more prominent • Results of a planning are shaped by the applications of different methods • Difficult to understand the potentials and limits of different approaches > Key-thesis: simple and transparent classification is helpful • to better understand the pros and cons of FTA-methods • to support a more appropriate and transparent usage of methods • to reduce risks, uncertainties and, thus, unintended effects

4. A problem-oriented categorisation of FTA-methods for transport planning Risks and Uncertainties Different Approaches: • Long tradition in studies on risks and uncertainties (e.g. Renn 2008) • van Asselt and Rotmans 2002: Categorisation of the sources of uncertainty • Uncertainty due to variability (hardly removable) • Uncertainty due to limited knowledge (in principle removable) • Similar in Kleindorfer 2008: epistemic risks / aleatory risks • Knight (1921) on risks and uncertainties (also Runde 1998; Grunwald 2007): • Risk: knowledge and parameters available to assess the likeliness of an outcome • Uncertainty: more genuine lack of systematic understanding of causal relations • Hansson (1996) adds “Great Uncertainties” as a third category • situations in which a decision maker lacks most of the information about his options and of the values of the different outcomes. • > Three categories to classify unintended effects: risks (knowns), uncertainties (Known unknowns), great uncertainties (unknown unknwowns)

5. A problem-oriented categorisation of FTA-methods for transport planning Knowns and Unknowns The following categories are used: • Knowns: Solid knowledge is available, but still negative effects can not be fully excluded; risks in the Knightian sense • Effects of speed limits on emissions and number of accidents • Health problems caused by noise or pollutants • Known unknowns: There is rough knowledge about the situation or the effects of certain interventions; but the cause-effect relations are not understood; uncertainties in the Knightian sense • Segregation effects (new road) on biodiversity • Impacts of noise from traffic on human creativity • Unknown unknowns: There is no knowledge about potential effects or cause-effect relations; surprises or “great uncertainties” (Hansson) • Car friendly urban policy in the 60’ties leading to congestions and urban sprawl years later • From an 1970’ties perspective: heavy growth rates in freight transport in the EU on roads from and to eastern European countries

6. A problem-oriented categorisation of FTA-methods for transport planning Knowns and Unknowns II

7. A problem-oriented categorisation of FTA-methods for transport planning The Transport System as a “web of nodes” A climbing net as a rough approximation

8. A problem-oriented categorisation of FTA-methods for transport planning Methods and the Web of nodes • “Web” consist of nodes and linkages • All FTA-methods focus on – different – aspects of the web of nodes: • they either systematically cut out a certain area of the web (transport models) • or, at the other extreme, they provide more punctual knowledge from rather different areas (brainstorming, open space) • Transport models show a cut-out with selected nodes and linkages: • enables detailed studies with quantification • still, wide parts of the “ world” are not included • a decision was made on what to include or exclude; such decisions are usually based on norms and values (Grunwald 2009) • No methods is able to cover the full web

9. A problem-oriented categorisation of FTA-methods for transport planning Two Categories • Key questions for the categorisation of methods: • Does the structure of the method allow for a high degree in openness concerning the inclusion of parameters and linkages between parameters or is the method rather characterised by a pre-defined set of nodes and linkages between these nodes? • Two categories: structurally open / structurally closed: • Closed methods: focus on knows (risks) • Open methods: focus on unknowns (uncertainties and great uncertainties) • Overlaps with “quantitative” and “qualitative” but should illustrate that closed methods systematically exclude many nodes and linkages • > important for the type of unintended effects that can be anticipated • Categories are rather two points on a continuum

10. A problem-oriented categorisation of FTA-methods for transport planning The categorisation

11. A problem-oriented categorisation of FTA-methods for transport planning Knowns and Unknowns II Structurally Open Methods Structurally Closed Methods

12. A problem-oriented categorisation of FTA-methods for transport planning Mixed Approaches Characteristics • In praxis, different methods are often applied in combination • In principle, mixed approaches can cover the full range of unintended effects • Application of mixed approaches need a careful design Examples • Scenarios • Ability to detect effects depends on the methodology • Explorative scenarios are usually designed in a rather open way • Strategic Environmental Assessment (SEA) / Environmental Impact Assessment (EIA) • Combination of different methods (e.g. modelling approaches and discursive methods) • SEA more open, integrates qualitative and quantitative data • EIA more focussed on specifying and quantifying effects from the category knowns

13. A problem-oriented categorisation of FTA-methods for transport planning Conclusions I Problem-oriented categorisation • is feasible with the categories “structurally open” / “structurally closed” • is helpful for a better understanding of the potentials of different methods in dealing with knows, known unknowns and unknown unknowns • increase awareness for a more careful design and integration of methods • increases awareness for risks and uncertainties • underlines that methods from both categories are needed to reduce unintended effects

14. A problem-oriented categorisation of FTA-methods for transport planning Conclusions II Further research needed • regarding an optimised integration of structurally closed and structurally open methods in planning processes • regarding “generic principles” for the combination of methods • for example, the EU project OPTIC suggests (DLR, KIT 2010): • using open methods in the beginning; might be supported by simple pre-structured approaches for better orientation; involvement of all relevant groups such a experts, of stakeholder/citizens; reduction of unknowns; • closed methods in the middle; quantifications with models as a main task; mainly experts involved; reductions of risks • open methods in the end again; discursive methods for the interpretation of the results; potentially affected groups should be involved

15. A problem-oriented categorisation of FTA-methods for transport planning Thank you for your attention !