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The demographic forces shaping service provision - and demand

The demographic forces shaping service provision - and demand. Natalie Jackson. Professor of Demography, National Institute of Demographic and Economic Analysis (NIDEA) Natalie Jackson Demographics Ltd. Presentation to WasteMINZ ROUNDUP 2014, Queenstown April 3 rd 2014.

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The demographic forces shaping service provision - and demand

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  1. The demographic forces shaping service provision - and demand Natalie Jackson Professor of Demography, National Institute of Demographic and Economic Analysis (NIDEA) Natalie Jackson Demographics Ltd Presentation to WasteMINZROUNDUP 2014, Queenstown April 3rd2014

  2. Population ageing – what does it mean for WasteMINZ? • The demographic forces shaping our future • More elderly than children • Fewer labour market entrants than exits • More deaths than births > the end of growth • Urban agglomeration versus subnational population decline • Regional impacts of demographic and economic change (NgaTangata Oho Mairangi) - MBIE • The subnational mechanisms of the ending of growth – towards a theory of depopulation (Tai Timu Tangata, Taihoa e ) – Marsden • Jackson (forthcoming) Planning for a demographically-tight labour market - New Zealand’s ageing occupations and industries

  3. Population ageing – New Zealand style Me 8.6 % 65+ years 14.2% aged 65+

  4. The Big Picture

  5. The very big picture *US Census Bureau International Database; Statistics NZ 2012 Projected subnational population of New Zealand by age and sex, 2006(base)-2031 [2012 Update]

  6. Drilling down Statistics NZ 2012 Projected subnational population of New Zealand by age and sex, 2006(base)-2031 [2012 Update]

  7. Ageing-driven growth is not the same as youth-driven growth Source: Statistics NZ 2012 Projected population of New Zealand by age and sex, 2011(base)-2061

  8. Source: Statistics NZ 2012 Projected population of New Zealand by age and sex, 2011(base)-2061 Already crossed over in 22% TAs New Zealand - more elderly than children within 12 years Projected

  9. Ageing-driven growth • Between 2011 and 2031 all growth in 56 (84%) Territorial Authority Areas is projected to be at 65+ years; all are projected to see overall decline at 0-64 years: • Only 11 TAs escape this scenario • Growth will end in most TAs

  10. 2013 Census • 2006-2013: Auckland accounted for 52% of growth • Auckland plus 11 cities accounted for 75% of growth • Elsewhere - patchy growth, widespread/ deepening decline • Of 1971 census area units with resident populations in 2006, 35% declined (647) or had zero growth (39) • The data confirm past trends / mixed futures..

  11. 2001-2006 • End of growth / depopulation not a new issue, but it is spreading and its cause is changing • Old form of decline = net migration loss (was resolvable) • New form of decline = net migration loss plus natural decline (self-reinforcing)

  12. This disparate situation is projected to continue Source: Statistics New Zealand, Subnational Population Projections: 2006(base)–2031 (October 2012 update)

  13. Enter - the demographically-tight labour market Baby Boomer Retirement (NZ 1 mill.) Competition for labour supply Between industries (incl. education), regions, countries..

  14. What do these trends mean for your industry? NZ: 28,000 fewer school leavers over the next 10 years Source: Statistics NZ 2012 Projected population of New Zealand by age and sex, 2011(base)-2061

  15. ..it is happening - fewer school leavers are coming to a town near you

  16. ..it will get worse before it gets better – and then the respite will be patchy

  17. Already fewer younger than older employed workers

  18. Goodbye youth unemployment

  19. Enter ageing workforces - Source: The Economist, April 9 2011

  20. In 2013, Boomers aged 48-67 years New Zealand Employed Labour Force 1996, 2013 (+22.7%) 11.5% 9:10 27:10 Ratio 15-29: 55+ years: 1996 = 27:10; 2006 = 9:10 Source: Statistics New Zealand Customised Occupation Database

  21. New Zealand’s Refuse Collectors 1996, 2013 (+19.9%) 9% 10:10 32:10 Ratio 15-29: 55+ years: 1996 = 32:10; 2006 = 10:10 Source: Statistics New Zealand Customised Occupation Database National workforce 2013: 23.6% 55+ years

  22. New Zealand’s Heavy Truck/Tanker Drivers 1996, 2013 (+6.7%) 9% 4:10 28:10 Ratio 15-29: 55+ years: 1996 = 28:10; 2006 = 4:10 Source: Statistics New Zealand Customised Occupation Database National workforce 2013: 23.6% 55+ years

  23. NZ’s Senior Government Administrators 1996-2013 (+140%) 16% 7:10 4:10 Ratio 15-29: 55+ years: 1996 =7:10; 2013 = 4: 10 Source: Statistics New Zealand Customised Industry Database National workforce 2013: 23.6% 55+ years

  24. Specialised Managers 1996-2013 (+72%) 12% 14:10 6:10 Ratio 15-29: 55+ years: 1996 =14:10; 2013 = 6: 10 Source: Statistics New Zealand Customised Industry Database National workforce 2013: 23.6% 55+ years

  25. Growing competition - -hello increasing labour costs

  26. There will be increasing competition generally The Economist, April 9th 2011

  27. Regional competition

  28. Regions - ageing rapidly – who you ‘gonna call? 65+ years: 16.4% (11.7%) 65+ years: 25.6% (19%)

  29. Regions differ markedly – Auckland OK, Christchurch.. ?? 65+ years: 11.2% (10.1%) 65+ years: 14.9% (13.4%)

  30. Most TA’s will soon have fewer labour market entrants than exits Observed Projected Hamilton? Source: Statistics New Zealand, Estimated Resident Population;(1996-2013) ;Subnational Population Projections: 2006(base)–2031 (October 2012 update)

  31. Time to rethink demand/service delivery Population ageing is here to stay It is coming to a WasteMINZ service near you It will drive down labour supply and drive up labour costs It will see the permanent end of growth / onset of depopulation in most rural areas We urgently need to rethink most types of service delivery (and demand) Accept Buffer Collaborate/Conserve

  32. Thankyou • natalie.jackson@waikato.ac.nz • www.waikato.ac.nz/nidea

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