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Demographic Factors Shaping Personal Transportation Needs

Demographic Factors Shaping Personal Transportation Needs. Peter A. Morrison RAND Presentation on behalf of Population Resource Center, Washington, DC, June 9, 2009 E-mail: peterm3636@aol.com Voice: (508) 228-8018. Aims of Presentation.

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Demographic Factors Shaping Personal Transportation Needs

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  1. Demographic Factors Shaping Personal Transportation Needs Peter A. Morrison RAND Presentation on behalf of Population Resource Center, Washington, DC, June 9, 2009 E-mail: peterm3636@aol.com Voice: (508) 228-8018

  2. Aims of Presentation • Review evolving demographic context of personal transportation needs • Identify potential opportunities to • Accommodate forthcoming shifts • Design new initiatives • Guide Federal spending decisions

  3. A Changing Demographic Landscape • Maturing age distribution • Influx of working-age immigrants • Urban and rural settlement patterns

  4. 1. Maturing Age Distribution • Future population growth: concentrated mostly within the 50 + age range • Older workers: extending working careers • “Two-generation geriatric” families: growing more commonplace

  5. 14 12 10 8 6 4 2 0 0 2 4 6 8 10 12 14 A Maturing Age Distribution, 2000(National data) 85+ 80-84 75-79 70-74 65-69 60-64 55-59 50-54 45-49 40-44 35-39 30-34 25-29 20-24 15-19 10-14 5-9 0-4 Female Male Population (in millions) Source: U.S. Census Bureau, International Data Base.

  6. 14 12 10 8 6 4 2 0 0 2 4 6 8 10 12 14 A Maturing Age Distribution, 2020 85+ 80-84 75-79 70-74 65-69 60-64 55-59 50-54 45-49 40-44 35-39 30-34 25-29 20-24 15-19 10-14 5-9 0-4 Female Male Population (in millions) Source: U.S. Census Bureau, International Data Base.

  7. Mature Adults: An Expanding Segment (100%) (100%) 17% 65 + 19% 22% 50 to 64 26% 26% 31% 35 to 49 25% 31% 18 to 34 30% 2003 2013 Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics.

  8. Two-Generation Geriatric Families . . .

  9. 2. Immigrant Influx • Recent immigrants favor carpooling, public transportation • Most are in the prime working ages • Most immigrants live in just 5 states, but paths of immigration are branching out

  10. Age Distribution by Sex and Origin: 2000(In Percent) Native Foreign Born Age Male Female Male Female Source: Current Population Survey, March 2000, PGP-3

  11. Immigrants Are Concentrated Geographically All Legal Immigrants, 2008 NY 13 % CA 22 % NJ 5 % FL 12 % TX 8 % Source: Dept. of Homeland Security, Yearbook of Immigration Statistics: 2008, Table 4.

  12. 3. Urban and Rural Settlement Patterns • Today’s personal transportation needs reflect: • Core-based metropolitan & micropolitan areas • Nonmetro communities’ proximity to these areas • Other needs may materialize from: • Home-based and/or part-time employment • Naturally occurring retirement communities (NORCs)

  13. Nonmetro Households Without Cars

  14. Locales of Future “Naturally Occurring Retirement Communities” (NORCs)

  15. ?? Questions ??

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