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“GRAYSHORE: The Coming Senior Boom” October 27, 2004

“GRAYSHORE: The Coming Senior Boom” October 27, 2004. BEACON’s Study in Spring 2004 Aimed To …. Assess the impact of an aging population on the four counties of the Lower Shore. Help regional decision leaders with their program planning and community education efforts.

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“GRAYSHORE: The Coming Senior Boom” October 27, 2004

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  1. “GRAYSHORE: The Coming Senior Boom”October 27, 2004

  2. BEACON’s Study in Spring 2004 Aimed To … • Assess the impact of an aging population on the four counties of the Lower Shore. • Help regional decision leaders with their program planning and community education efforts.

  3. Research was generously supported by…MAC INCORPORATED -- Area Agency on AgingCommunity Foundation of the Eastern ShoreWorcester County Economic Development

  4. What We Did… • Extensive secondary research • In-depth Opinion Leader interviews across four Lower Shore counties • Multiple stakeholder meetings

  5. Demographics of Aging

  6. An Aging World… Average life expectancy: 1900 47 years 2001 77 years

  7. An Aging Nation…Elderly are Fastest Growing Segment • [1] U.S. Census Bureau, http://www.census.gov/population/www/pop-profile/elderpop.html. • [2] The Decade for Health in Aging: The Challenge, The AGS Foundation for Health in Aging, http://www.healthinaging.org/public_policy/decade_challenge.php.

  8. Characteristics ofAging Population: • Disproportionate number of women. Currently comprise: - 59% of 65+ - 70% of 85+ • More racially and ethnically diverse

  9. [1] Cultural Issues: Elderly, The New England ATTC (Addiction Technology Transfer Center Network), (http://www.attc-ne.org/cultural/elderly.html.

  10. National: Median Age 2000 U.S. Census Bureau http://www.factfinder.census.gov.

  11. An Aging New Jersey… Us Census Bureau http://quickfacts.census.gov/qfd/states/10000.html http://www.state.nj.us/labor/lra

  12. New Jersey (upper): Median Age 2000 U.S. Census Bureau http://www.factfinder.census.gov.

  13. New Jersey (lower): Median Age 2000 U.S. Census Bureau http://www.factfinder.census.gov.

  14. An Aging Delaware… http://www.state.de.us/dhss/dsaapd/population_projections_delaware.html

  15. Delaware: Median Age 2000 U.S. Census Bureau http://www.factfinder.census.gov.

  16. An Aging Maryland… Maryland Department of Aging, http://www.mdoa.state.md.us/demographicsn.html, 1. Us Census Bureau http://quickfacts.census.gov/qfd/states/10000.html

  17. Maryland: Median Age 2000 U.S. Census Bureau http://www.factfinder.census.gov.

  18. Maryland (Western): Median Age 2000 U.S. Census Bureau http://www.factfinder.census.gov.

  19. An Aging Virginia… • http://www.aging.state.va.us/download%20vecfinalloc.htm • http://www.areaconnect.com/population.htm?s=VA

  20. Virginia: Median Age 2000 U.S. Census Bureau http://www.factfinder.census.gov.

  21. Current and Projected % of Pop. 65+ (DE, MD, VA = 2030, N.J. = 2020) Maryland State Data Center, Projections, http://www.mdp.state.md.us/msdc/dw_map.htm Accomack and N.hampton http://www.vec.state.va.us/pdf/pop_projs.pdf Kent and Sussex http://www.cadsr.udel.edu/DOWNLOADABLE/DOCUMENTS/DPC_2001v0.pdf http://www.wnjpin.net/OneStopCareerCenter/LaborMarketInformation/lmi03/index.html

  22. What Will this “Senior Boom” Mean for Us…?

  23. Our Challenges…

  24. I. Long-Term Elder Care & Housing

  25. Health Realities of Older Pop. • Chronic diseases: - 75% of 65+ have at least one - 50% of 65+ have at least two • Mental health problems • Need “elder-friendly” care

  26. Not Enough Health Care Professionals • Geriatricians: Number needs to double • Nurses: 20% deficit by 2020 • Nursing Aides, CNAs, GNAs: 91% of nursing homes understaffed

  27. Not Enough (Affordable)“Shelter + Care” Options Most seniors “age in place” Goal = “least restrictive setting Needed = long-term “continuum of care”

  28. Public Programs Haven’t “Caught Up” • Medicare: no long-term care coverage • Medicaid: primarily nursing home • Assisted living = not covered • Subsidized senior housing: wait lists • State/Local senior aid programs: funding cuts

  29. Fragmented Service Delivery • Multiple agencies • Multiple points of entry and assessments • Lack of coordination between housing and social services programs

  30. II. Elder Finances

  31. The Good News… Senior poverty is down: 1959: 35% poverty rate 1999: 10% poverty rate

  32. The Bad News… • New challenges threaten seniors’ financial security • Will affect both low and middle-income seniors • Overall, retirees will have $45 billion less than needed to cover basic expenses/year by 2030 (EBRI)

  33. AARP says: “[T]he state of the 50+ population can best be described today as vulnerable.”

  34. “It could be a train wreck…” • Longer lives • Chronic illnesses • Rising medical costs • Decline in pensions • Inadequate savings • Drop in stock market • Credit card/mortgage debt

  35. Disparities • Black and Hispanic elderly more than 2x as likely to be poor • Women 2x as likely to be poor • Rural elderly more likely to be poor

  36. 2000 Poverty Rate: 65+ Maryland Department of Aging, http://www.mdoa.state.md.us/demographicsn.html, 1-2. http://quickfacts.census.gov/qfd/

  37. Public Resources: Inadequate • 1950 16:1 2004 3:1 • $27.7 trillion • DE – 15% 36% MD – 10% 36% NJ – 11% 46% VA – 10% 48% • 93

  38. III. Elder Mobility

  39. Mobility = Independence • “ Useless..” • “Miserable… • “Confined…” • “Lost…”

  40. Mobility = Danger • Teenagers and older drivers have highest per-mile fatal crash rates • By 2030, drivers 65+ are expected to account for 16% of all crashes and 25% of all fatal crashes

  41. We Also Have Opportunities…

  42. I. Senior Spending Power Americans who are 50+… - Control 70% of wealth - Account for 50% of discretionary spending

  43. II.Senior Markets • Elder care products and services • Retrofitted and Universal Design housing • Tourism, recreation, and education activities

  44. III. Seniors in the Workforce • 80% of boomers plan to work past retirement age • Hardworking, loyal, experienced • Include entrepreneurs / investors • May need training, flexible scheduling, “bridge benefits”

  45. IV.Senior Contributions to Community • Voluntarism (87%) • Civic Engagement: The elderly vote accounts for close to 1/3 of the vote nationwide (NY Times)

  46. Some Food for Thought… • What do we need to do NOW to prepare for the “senior boom?” • How do we balance inter- generational needs when resources are limited? • How can we meet the needs of both “from heres” and “come heres?” • Can we be “senior friendly” and still retain our youth (i.e., stop brain-drain)?

  47. “We are confronted by insurmountable opportunities.” Pogo

  48. Thank You!For This and Other Presentations… Visit us at http://beacon.salisbury.edu

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