Evolution Scenarios for Emerging Mobile Commerce Services: The MobiCom Project

1. Evolution Scenarios for Emerging Mobile Commerce Services: The MobiCom Project Dr. Nikos Mylonopoulos, MobiCom Scientific Coordinator Ms. Ioanna Constantiou, MobiCom Project Manager eLTRUN - The e-Business Research Center

2. M-Commerce Market Drivers • Mass Adoption • Booming Wireline Internet • Supplier Push • New Billing Principles • UMTS Licensing

3. Mobile Communications Attributes Ubiquity Today Reachability Convenience Security Localisation Tomorrow Instant Connectivity Personalisation

4. M-Commerce Obstacles • Multitude of network technologies • Complex Standardization Processes • Infrastructure investments (replacements) • Demand uncertainty • Slower than anticipated WAP adoption

5. M-Commerce Becomes Reality

6. NTT DoCoMo’s iModeThe Portal Benchmark • 19.4 million subscribersas of 18 February 2001 • 480+ content providers with specific apps. • Banks, credit cards,insurance, tickets, news, travel, CDs, books, • games, entertainment • 10000+ providers with HTML content • Automatic translation into Compact HTML • Messaging is key to achieve lock-in • Revenues: 50% use premium services for $1-3, commission 9%, iMode monthly subscription, cellular subscription, airtime, more voice, games & banner ads

7. NTT DoCoMo’s iModeThe Portal Benchmark

8. MobiCom Evolution Scenarios for Emerging Mobile Commerce Services • Project started 1 December 2000 • Total duration:20 months • Participating 9 partners: • (4 universities, 3 mobile telcos, 2 eCommerce companies)

9.  Athens University of Economics and Business Project Coordinator – Expertise in new business models  The University of Cologne Expertise in e-commerce  University of Jyväskylä Expertise in technology convergence  University of Brighton Expertise in mobile telecommunications and scenario planning methodology MobiCom Evolution Scenarios for Emerging Mobile Commerce Services Consortium

10.  STET Hellas Telecommunications SA Mobile Telecommunications Operator  Sonera Corporation Mobile Telecommunications Operator  Mannesmann Pilotentwicklungsgesellschaft mbH Mobile Telecommunications Operator  Verband der Vereine Creditreform e.V., Neuss Business Information and receivables management – e-commerce applications  Lambrakis Research Foundation Info-broker, internet portal – e-commerce applications and dissemination activities, MobiCom Evolution Scenarios for Emerging Mobile Commerce Services Consortium(Continued)

11. Impetus for Research on Mobile Commerce • MobiCom partners: • Recognize that Mobile Commerce will play a significant role in the European Information Society. • Argue that the value of Mobile Commerce for the economy and for the people will depend on: • Characteristics of the technology and the standards adopted • The structure of the technology and services markets • The role of technology providers, mobile operators and service merchants • The needs of consumers and the nature of demand • Agree that now (that the mobile markets are being shaped) is the time to plan ahead examining future scenarios and seeking consensus among the key players.

12. MobiCom Evolution Scenarios for Emerging Mobile Commerce Services Outcomes • Current trends and developments in mobile telecommunications and electronic commerce • Analysis of new mobile services and mobile business architectures • Scenarios for business models, market dynamics, social implications • Feasibility studies and business plans • Analysis of Mobile Commerce diffusion and adoption • MobiForum

13. Phase 1 Analysis of Mobile Telecommunications Industry Sectoral analysis of Ecommerce services Phase 2 Analysis of the convergence between Mobile Telecoms and Ecommerce: New Services and Applications Phase 3 MobiForum – Interactive Platform Mobile Commerce Evolution Scenarios New market dynamics New methods of work Policy andRegulation New businessmodels MobiCom Evolution Scenarios for Emerging Mobile Commerce Services At a glance

14. MobiCom Evolution Scenarios for Emerging Mobile Commerce Services Beneficiaries and Benefits  Mobile Operators A learning experience generating insight into alternative strategic directions for Mobile Commerce. Tangible feasibility studies and business plans.  E-Commerce Merchants Understanding the breadth of possibilities for new value added services. Market readiness information. Feasibility studies and business plans.  The European Commission Scenarios of new market development and dynamics. Assessment of socioeconomic impacts. Policy recommendations.  University partners Strengthening and widening existing expertise in e-commerce and e-business. Sharing and transferring methodological and research knowledge.

15. They believed it… (Schoemaker, 1995) • Thomas J. Watson, chairman of IBM, 1943 • I think there is a world market for about five computers • Ken Olson, President, Digital Equipment Corporation, 1977 • There is no reason for any individual to have a computer in their home

16. Scenario Planning Methodology • Key approach throughout the project • Avoids forecasting in a complex environment • Driving ahead by looking at the rear view mirror • Explores alternative futures • Manage the present from the future

17. Special Interest Groups • Objective • To open participation to scenario planning to a broad range of stakeholders • Expectations • To contribute the the debate • Benefits • To have your voice heard to the European Commission • Means • Local meetings, European Worshops, MobiForum

18. Special Interest Groups Join the MobiCom SIG if: • You are mobile operator • You are mobile infrastructure developer or provider • You offer mobile services to your customers • You develop third party mobile applications and services • You are involved in the standardization and policy processes