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Partisans vs. Independents

Partisans vs. Independents. Generally speaking, do you consider yourself a Dem., Rep., or independent [If D or r]: Would you call yourself a strong [D or R]? [If Ind]: Would you say you think of yourself as closer to the Ds or Rs. Partisans vs. Independents. As of 2008: Strong D 19

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Partisans vs. Independents

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  1. Partisans vs. Independents • Generally speaking, do you consider yourself a Dem., Rep., or independent • [If D or r]: Would you call yourself a strong [D or R]? • [If Ind]: Would you say you think of yourself as closer to the Ds or Rs

  2. Partisans vs. Independents • As of 2008: • Strong D 19 • Weak D 15 • Ind D 17 51 D • Ind1111 I • Ind R 12 37 R • Weak R 13 • Strong R 13

  3. Partisanship trends

  4. Partisans vs. Independents • When we lump independent‘leaners’ in w/ partisans, not much change in D vs. R distribution since 1984 • Slight GOP gain • some oscillation • What about those independents?

  5. Partisans vs. Independents Trends in US Party ID; 1952 - 2006

  6. Independents vs. Partisans

  7. Partisans vs. Independents • What do these responses mean? • Party Identification strongest predictor of voting • learned early, social transmition • rarely changes over lifetime • see F&Z figures

  8. Partisans vs. Independents Funnel of Partisanship Causality social background Party attachments campaign events vote Values Groups Time (years & years)

  9. Partisans vs. Independents • Partisans • identify w/ party early • identification stronger over lifetime • partisans more interested in politics • Today, Party ID an even stronger predictor of voting than ever • 90%+ of strong ID vote w/ party • hence, elections somewhat predictable

  10. Partisans vs. Independents • Independents • fastest growing group of voters ‘leaners’ • ID as “independent” but say they are “closer” to one particular party • Leaners may act more ‘partisan’ than weak partisans sometimes • Vote party if forced to chose btwn D and R • Highly interested

  11. Partisans vs. Independents • Independents • but, independents less happy w/ choices than weak or strong partisans • more willing to defect if offered a 3rd choice • Important aspect of dealignment • more independents, who are more volitile

  12. Partisans vs. Independents Does a party represent you reasonably well

  13. Partisans vs. Independents

  14. Partisans vs. Independents • Anderson (+ others) 1980 • 26% of Ind Dems, 14% of Ind, 12% of weak R • Perot 1992 • 23% of Ind Dems, 36% of Ind, 26% of Ind R, 25% of weak Rs • Nader 2000 • 8% of Ind Dems, 6% of Ind, 6% Ind Reps • 0% from weak/strong partisans

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