1 / 18

Presented at the opening of the Mohn-Sverdrup Center, Bergen Oct. 20, 2004

Numerical Ocean Weather Prediction at the Norwegian Meteorological Institute: S afeguarding life, property and the environment at sea. Anton Eliassen, Lars Petter Røed and Øyvind Sætra. Presented at the opening of the Mohn-Sverdrup Center, Bergen Oct. 20, 2004. The met.no mandate.

odette
Download Presentation

Presented at the opening of the Mohn-Sverdrup Center, Bergen Oct. 20, 2004

An Image/Link below is provided (as is) to download presentation Download Policy: Content on the Website is provided to you AS IS for your information and personal use and may not be sold / licensed / shared on other websites without getting consent from its author. Content is provided to you AS IS for your information and personal use only. Download presentation by click this link. While downloading, if for some reason you are not able to download a presentation, the publisher may have deleted the file from their server. During download, if you can't get a presentation, the file might be deleted by the publisher.

E N D

Presentation Transcript

  1. Numerical Ocean Weather Prediction at the Norwegian Meteorological Institute: Safeguarding life, property and the environment at sea Anton Eliassen, Lars Petter Røed and Øyvind Sætra Presented at the opening of the Mohn-Sverdrup Center, Bergen Oct. 20, 2004

  2. The met.no mandate Financed by the Norwegian Government to safeguard life, property and the environment at land and sea. • Provide: • general weather forecasts, • climate information, • warnings of severe weather to the general public and • forecasts for search and rescue operations • Broadcast: • Using Norwegian Broadcasting Company (public radio/TV), • Using Internet and • other generally available distribution channels • Services for military purposes: • In case of a war, the met.no services are transferred to military command

  3. But safety at sea is more than meteorology …. • stand-by emergency services ”Prestige” Oil drift and combatment Search and rescue

  4. ... more than meteorology …. • monitoring and forecasting of the transport and dispersion of nutrients, algae, fish larvae, contaminants 20.10.2004 18UTC Diatome concentrations Chlorophyll concentrations

  5. ... more than meteorology …. • safeguarding life and property regarding: Ship traffic Offshore operations Military operations Fisheries Recreation, leisure yachting

  6. Surface conditions: Waves Water level Ice drift Ice concentration Ice thickness Profiles with depth of Temperature Salinity Currents Current and salinity at 10m depth This requires timely predictions Wave spectrum

  7. OSI-SAF conc. OSI-SAF SST Altimeter Hs met.no’s NOWP system Atmosphere Ice Ocean circulation Drift Oil Ecosys. Waves

  8. Forecast samples Hs 20 Oct. 2004 18UTC SSH 20 Oct. 2004 18UTC

  9. Forecast samples SST 20.10.2004 18UTC SSC and SSS 20.10.2004 18UTC

  10. How good are the predictions? Validation of Arctic20 against SST from satellite imagery (OSI-SAF) OSI-SAF: SST 168 hr composite15.10.2004 00UTC Arctic20: SST 18.10.2004 00UTC

  11. Mean score Jul-Sep 2004 How good are the predictions? Validation of SST in terms of the mean RMS error (oC)

  12. SARSearch and Rescue: Leeway model • Split search area due to bimodal leeway (split is exaggerated for illustration) Individual trajectory • Initial cloud shows uncertainty in Last Known Position (LKP)

  13. Leeway bimodality • Experiments produce two stable drift directions, left and right of downwind, for same type of object. • NB! Jibing not important. • In practice, we cannot know which side will be “selected” by the object. •  leeway model must produce both trajectories

  14. http://moncoze.met.no POMS: Pilot Ocean Monitoring System

  15. OSI-SAF SST Sep. 28, 2000 01:15 UTC NORWAY Lista DENMARK

  16. Snapshot of surface currents Sep. 28, 2000 00 UTC Kristiansand Lista ● ● ● Reference point

  17. Seksjon oseanografi

More Related