Status of Capacities for Climate Services Provision in the Caribbean

1. Status of Capacities for Climate Services Provision in theCaribbean Adrian Trotman Chief, Applied Meteorology and Climatology Caribbean Institute for Meteorology and Hydrology National Consultation on a Framework for Climate Services in Belize 30 October to 1 November 2013, Belize City, Belize.

2. Caribbean Institute for Meteorology and HydrologyPRIMARY FUNCTIONS • Train various categories of meteorological and hydrological personnel • Operate as a centre of research in meteorology, hydrology and associated sciences • Data collection, storage, & dissemination • Maintain, repair, and calibrate meteorological & hydrological instruments • Advise regional governments on matters related to meteorology & hydrology • Provide consulting services to industry • Now Regional Climate Centre in demonstration phase An arm of the Caribbean Meteorological Organisation

3. The Caribbean Climate Outlook Forum (CariCOF)

4. Approach I

5. Approach II

6. Seasonal Rainfall Prediction with use of climate prediction models Global and Regional 3 to 6 months forecasts

7. Monthly Caribbean climate outlook newsletter Seasonal climate and impacts monitoring + Seasonal climate forecasts http://www.cimh.edu.bb/?p=precipoutlook

8. Climate MonitoringExampleCaribbean Drought and Precipitation Monitoring NetworkFocus next on temperature Monitoring

9. Why concerns over drought? Wet season rainfall as a percentage of annual rainfall (Enfield and Alfaro, 1999). Seasonal Impacts Moving 10 year averages of rainfall at Edgecumbe, Barbados (Burton 1995). Impacts potentially more severe during drier phases. Future dryer and warmer regime likely to increase frequency of drought episodes

10. Types of Drought

11. ResponseCaribbean Drought and Precipitation Monitoring Network (CDPMN) CDPMN launched under Caribbean Water Initiative CARIWIN in January 2009 expected to be fully operational by the end of 2010 • Two Scales of Monitoring • Caribbean Basin • Country-level • Precipitation status monitored using a number of indices • Final precipitation status determined, by consensus, by a network of persons from different sectors, institutions and communities embracing the diversity in definitions and impacts of drought • Short term and seasonal rainfall forecasts to provide a projection of future drought (1 - 6 months possible)

12. Depicting the 2009-2010 Drought Monitoring: Caribbean SPI and Deciles(Caribbean Drought and Precipitation Monitoring Network)Prediction: Caribbean seasonal precipitation outlook (CIMH and CariCOF)

13. In total contrast to 2010, the 2011 and 2012 dry seasons were forecasted to be wetter than normal in the eastern Caribbean, and that is how they turned out

14. CARICOM/Brazil programme in DRRDrought • Implemented by CIMH • Pilot Countries: Grenada, St. Lucia, Jamaica • Training in drought monitoring and planning (assisted by NDMC) • Provision of monitoring instruments (illustrative) • Upgrade of CWM • Draft Implementation plans for DEWIS (to Cabinet)… • In the context of a Drought Management framework

15. Framework for National Drought Management Focus on Drought Early Warning & Information Systems

16. Caribbean Agrometeorological Initiative (CAMI)An example of Weather and Climate Serviceswww.cimh.edu.bb/cami

17. CAMI Funded by the EU under the ACP S&T Programme Implemented by CIMH (Project Manager), CARDI, WMO and Ten National Meteorological Services to increase and sustain agricultural productivity at the farm level in the Caribbean region through improved applications of weather and climate information using an integrated and coordinated approach Information providers, users and media www.cimh.edu.bb/cami

18. Specific Activities of the Action 1 • Seasonal Rainfall Prediction through analysis of long-term climatic data and use of seasonal to inter-annual climate prediction models • Use of rainy season prediction and near-real time weather information to support management decisions such as especially irrigation scheduling • Working with the agricultural research and extension agencies in developing an effective pest and disease forecasting system

19. Specific Activities of the Action 2 • Preparation and wide diffusion of a user-friendly weather and climate information newsletters/bulletins • Organization of regular forums with the farming community and agricultural extension agencies to promote a better understanding of the applications of weather and climate information • Building capacity of the Meteorological and Agricultural Services and research institutions

20. Statistical Analyses Crop and Irrigation Simultion Developing forecasting systems for selected pests and diseases

21. Supporting management decisions such as for irrigation scheduling and quantities Using Aquacrop and INSTAT for example

22. Means for Dissemination and Effective Communication – Strategy involving any media that can reach farmers in a language they can understand Also a Regional Monthly Bulletin – already 23 volumes Preparation and dissemination of a user-friendly weather and climate bulletins and information Daily, week ten-daily, monthly, seasonally Print, radio, television, mobile/cellular, telecentres

23. Regular forums with the farming community and agricultural extension agencies to promote a better understanding of the applications of weather and climate information and feedback for Met Services Seasonal and weather Forecasting and information, drought, irrigation, crop simulation, pests and diseases 825 participants during 27 forums engaged

24. Rescue and Digitise hard copy information Data sharing, protocols All data to a centralised system Database developed – To pursue light versions – Synchrony Denser, strategic climate observation network, Global data systems, Remote Sensing IT support Effective Data Management and Observation System

25. Recommendations forPolicy Makers

26. Potential in Water Resources Management

27. Developing Useful Hydrological Services From Weather and Climate Science • High-resolution weather and climate scenarios are used in conjunction with hydrological models to predict water balance and dynamics for complex topography • Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model • Providing Regional Climates for Impacts Studies (PRECIS) model • ParFlow (coupled with CLM and WRF) hydrologic model • Operationalize predictions of spatial and temporal variability of climate-induced hydrologic changes • Short-term : generation of monthly, seasonal and annual hydrologic forecasts • Long-term : comprehensive projections of hydrologic impacts to year 2100 • changes in hydro-climate variability and extremes • causes of changes in extreme behavior • Near-term : decadal and multi-decadal hydrologic predictions including hydro-climatic predictions to year 2035

28. Climate Forecasts in Hydrological Terms • Downscale to resolve mismatch in spatial and temporal scales • Hydrologic models • solve equations subject to meteorological forcing • Compute water balance: • runoff • evaporation • transpiration • soil water storage • percolation/recharge HYDROLOGICAL / CROP MODEL

29. Example Output Day of Year

30. Thank you