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Operational Mechanisms for Provision of Climate Services Globally

Operational Mechanisms for Provision of Climate Services Globally . G Srinivasan/ Rupa Kumar Kolli WMO. National Consultation on a Framework for Climate Services in Belize, Radisson, Fort George, Belize City 30 Oct to 1 Nov 2013. Climate Services.

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Operational Mechanisms for Provision of Climate Services Globally

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  1. Operational Mechanisms for Provision of Climate Services Globally G Srinivasan/ RupaKumar Kolli WMO National Consultation on a Framework for Climate Services in Belize, Radisson, Fort George, Belize City 30 Oct to 1 Nov 2013 National Consultation on a Framework for Climate Services in Belize, Radisson, Fort George, Belize City 30 Oct to 1 Nov 2013

  2. Climate Services • Consolidation of knowledge about past, present and future state of the climate system; • Identification climate information needs within the communitiesand specific sectors to actions that are particularly sensitive to climate variability and change; • Development and delivery of a range of ‘products’ and advice based on climate knowledge and driven by the identified needs for climate services; • Ongoing efforts for building applications/products and capacities for effective uptake to help achieve benefits Generation Ultimate user National Consultation on a Framework for Climate Services in Belize, Radisson, Fort George, Belize City 30 Oct to 1 Nov 2013

  3. Distinctive Features of climate services • Available • at time and space scales that the user needs • Dependable • delivered regularly and on time • Usable • presented in user specific formats so that the client can fully understand • Credible • for the user to confidently apply to decision-making • Authentic • entitled to be accepted by stakeholders in the given decision contexts • Responsive and flexible • to the evolving user needs • Sustainable • affordable and consistent over time. Climate Risk Management Defined as a systematic and coordinated process in which climate information is used to reduce the risks associated with climate variability and change, and to take advantage of opportunities, in order to improve the resilience of social, economic and environmental systems. National Consultation on a Framework for Climate Services in Belize, Radisson, Fort George, Belize City 30 Oct to 1 Nov 2013

  4. Need to provide Climate information and Services on a continuum of time-scales for Climate risk management and adaptation actions Current Climate Variability Future Climate Change Impacts/Risks/Adaptation Seasonal 2100 Decadal Weather scale 20 – 30 yrs Inter-annual Climate, in a narrow sense can be defined as the average weather conditions for a particular location and period of time. Described in terms of statistical tendencies and variability. National Consultation on a Framework for Climate Services in Belize, Radisson, Fort George, Belize City 30 Oct to 1 Nov 2013

  5. Data and Product flows Framework Elements Feedback & Demand Global Centers receive and process nationally generated data and produce & distribute data and products • Observations • Research • Information System • User Interface • Capacity Building Respond to globally expressed needs from stakeholders at all levels both suppliers and users Global Data flows Feedback • Observations • Research • Information System • User Interface • Capacity Building Regional dedicated entities within the region collection and exchange of data & products Responds mainly to stakeholders within the region, particularly national organizations. Regional Products & Services • Observations • Research • Information System • User Interface • Capacity Building Source of all data & products, for within country use and international exchange Primary Focus on national needs, relationship with users and provide feedback on requirements National National Users National Consultation on a Framework for Climate Services in Belize, Radisson, Fort George, Belize City 30 Oct to 1 Nov 2013

  6. Food Security Climate is just one of the many factors !!

  7. Components of the Framework • User Interface Platform - to provide a means for users, user representatives, climate researchers and climate service providers to interact • Climate Services Information System - to collect, process and distribute climate data and information according to the needs of users and according to the procedures agreed by governments and other data providers • Observations and Monitoring - to ensure that the climate observations necessary to meet the needs of climate services are generated. • Research, Modelling and Prediction - to assess and promote the needs of climate services within research agendas • Capacity Building - to support systematic development of the necessary institutions, infrastructure and human resources to provide effective climate services. National Consultation on a Framework for Climate Services in Belize, Radisson, Fort George, Belize City 30 Oct to 1 Nov 2013

  8. Climate Service Information System (CSIS) • The CSIS is the component of the GFCS most concerned with the generation and dissemination (data flow) of climate information. • It is the ‘operational centre’ of the GFCS. It will include climate monitoring, prediction (monthly, seasonal, decadal) and projection (centennial) activities. • CSIS “to collect, process and distribute climate data and information according to the needs of users and according to the procedures agreed by governments and other data providers.’ National Consultation on a Framework for Climate Services in Belize, Radisson, Fort George, Belize City 30 Oct to 1 Nov 2013

  9. Elements of Climate Services Information System National Consultation on a Framework for Climate Services in Belize, Radisson, Fort George, Belize City 30 Oct to 1 Nov 2013

  10. Currently Designated GPCs Links to GPCs: http://www.wmo.int/pages/prog/wcp/wcasp/clips/producers_forecasts.html National Consultation on a Framework for Climate Services in Belize, Radisson, Fort George, Belize City 30 Oct to 1 Nov 2013

  11. Global Producing Centres of LRF • In 2006, WMO set up a process to designate centres making global seasonal forecasts as WMO Global Producing Centres (GPCs) of Long Range Forecasts • GPCs adhere to defined standards – aiding consistency and usability of output: • a fixed forecast production cycle • a standard set of forecast products • WMO-defined verification standards (for retrospective forecasts) • A comprehensive set of standard verification measures, with which to communicate the skill of forecasts, has been defined (the WMO Standard Verification System for Long-Range Forecasts – SVSLRF) National Consultation on a Framework for Climate Services in Belize, Radisson, Fort George, Belize City 30 Oct to 1 Nov 2013

  12. GPC products provided as minimum requirement • Predictions for averages, accumulations, or frequencies over 1-month periods or longer • typically, anomalies in 3-month-averaged quantities is the standard format for seasonal forecasts. Forecasts are usually expressed probabilistically • Lead time: between 0 and 4 months • Issue frequency: monthly or at least quarterly • Delivery: graphical images on GPC website and/or digital data for download • Variables: 2m temperature, precipitation, sea-surface temperature (SST), MSLP, 500hPa height, 850hPa temperature • Long-term forecast skill assessments, using measures defined by the SVSLRF National Consultation on a Framework for Climate Services in Belize, Radisson, Fort George, Belize City 30 Oct to 1 Nov 2013

  13. WMO Lead Centres for LRF • WMO Lead Center for Long Range Forecast Multi-Model Ensemble (LC-LRFMME)Jointly coordinated by Korea Meteorological Administration (KMA) and NOAA/NCEP http://www.wmolc.org/ • WMO Lead Center for Standard Verification System of Long Range Forecasts (LC-SVSLRF)Jointly coordinated by Bureau of Meteorology (BoM), Australia and Meteorological Service of Canada (MSC) http://www.bom.gov.au/wmo/lrfvs/ National Consultation on a Framework for Climate Services in Belize, Radisson, Fort George, Belize City 30 Oct to 1 Nov 22013

  14. Global and Seasonal Climate Update (GSCU) WMO CCl TT Global and Seasonal Climate Update (GSCU) Regular global consensus statements on seasonal climate – Global Seasonal Climate Update (GSCU); GSCU to include information on current and future seasonal anomalies and uncertainty aspects to assist risk management, adaptation policies and decision making of global partners Enhanced use of such products by RCCs and other regional entities; Global-scale climate monitoring results for the previous 3 months Potential evolution of the state of the climate over the next 3 months National Consultation on a Framework for Climate Services in Belize, Radisson, Fort George, Belize City 30 Oct to 1 Nov 2013

  15. NEACC BCC TCC ACMAD ICPAC CIIFEN SADC-CSC Designated RCCs Pilot RCCs Designated RCC Network Pilot RCC Networks by 2012 Pilot RCCs in development WMO RCC Status Worldwide Carbbean (CIMH) – in demonstartion phase. CIMH National Consultation on a Framework for Climate Services in Belize, Radisson, Fort George, Belize City 30 Oct to 1 Nov 2013

  16. Regional Climate Centres (RCCs) • WMO RCCs are Centres of Excellence performing regional-scale climate functions • Mandatory Functions: • Operational Activities for LRF • Operational Activities for Climate Monitoring • Operational Data Services, to support operational LRF and climate monitoring • Training in the use of operational RCC products and services • Highly Recommended Functions: • Climate prediction and projection (recognized as important need – WCRP/CORDEX linkage and linkage with the research communities) • Non-operational data services • Coordination functions • Training and capacity building • Research and development National Consultation on a Framework for Climate Services in Belize, Radisson, Fort George, Belize City 30 Oct to 1 Nov 22013

  17. Regional Climate Outlook Forums worldwide NEACOF EASCOF SASCOF ASEANCOF National Consultation on a Framework for Climate Services in Belize, Radisson, Fort George, Belize City 30 Oct to 1 Nov 2013

  18. RCOF Concept • produce and disseminate a regional assessment (using a consensus-based approach) of regional climate for the upcoming season. • Regional networking of the climate service providers and user-sector • RCOFs bring together national, regional and international climate experts, on an operational basis, to produce regional climate outlooks based on input from NMHSs, regional institutions, Regional Climate Centres (RCCs) and Global Producing Centres of long range forecasts (GPCs) and other climate prediction centres. • Through interaction with sectoral users, extension agencies and policy makers, RCOFs assess the likely implications of the outlooks on the core socio-economic sectorsin the region and explore potential applications of these outlooks. • RCOF sessions are expected to feed into national forums to develop detailed national-scale climate outlooks and risk information including warnings for communication to decision-makers and the public. National Consultation on a Framework for Climate Services in Belize, Radisson, Fort George, Belize City 30 Oct to 1 Nov 2013

  19. Capacity development • Human capacity • Infrastructural capacity • Procedural capacity • Institutional capacity Capacity development should: • address both demand and supply sides • be service oriented • respond to user needs • be balanced with climate science capabilities National Consultation on a Framework for Climate Services in Belize, Radisson, Fort George, Belize City 30 Oct to 1 Nov 2013

  20. In conclusion we have to build • Systematic and coordinated process for production and use of climate information • Integrated global to national levels • Capacities to build bridges and serve specific needs National Consultation on a Framework for Climate Services in Belize, Radisson, Fort George, Belize City 30 Oct to 1 Nov 2013

  21. Thank You gsrinivasan@wmo.int/RKolli@wmo.int For more information on GFCS: http://www.wmo.int/gfcs Google Group: http://www.wmo.int/gfcs/group National Consultation on a Framework for Climate Services in Belize, Radisson, Fort George, Belize City 30 Oct to 1 Nov 22013

  22. RCCs (contd.) – update • RCCs will be complementary to and supportive of NMHSs; warnings and national-scale products will continue to be the responsibility of NMHSs • Establishment of RCCs is initiated by Regional Associations, based on regional needs and priorities • Implementation Status: • Beijing and Tokyo designated as WMO RCCs in June 2009; North Eurasian Climate Centre (Russia) commenced RCC pilot phase in December 2010. • India, Iran and Saudi Arabia expressed interest to host RCCs • Pilot phase of RCC-Network getting completed in Europe; and designation completed. • Africa initiates RCC implementation by identifying six RCCs (two of them being RCC-Networks); ICPAC and ACMAD commenced pilot phase operations. • South America decides to establish 3 RCCs (two of them being RCC-Networks): CIIFEN, Brazil-Argentina and Brazil-French Guayana • Carbbean (CIMH) – has expressed inteerst and entered into demonstartion phase. National Consultation on a Framework for Climate Services in Belize, Radisson, Fort George, Belize City 30 Oct to 1 Nov 22013

  23. Regional Climate Outlook Forums (RCOFs) • A key component of WMO Climate Information and Prediction Services (CLIPS) project activities. • First established in October 1996 at the Workshop on Reducing Climate-Related Vulnerability in Southern Africa (Victoria Falls, Zimbabwe). • Gained momentum as a regional response to the major 1997–1998 El Niño event. • RCOF Concept was pioneered in Africa and spread worldwide. • WMO and a number of national, regional and international organizations (e.g., NOAA, IRI, Meteo France, World Bank, etc.) have supported their growth and expansion. National Consultation on a Framework for Climate Services in Belize, Radisson, Fort George, Belize City 30 Oct to 1 Nov 2013

  24. Climate Observations Climate Data Management Interaction with users Seasonal Climate Outlooks Climate Monitoring Specialised climate products Decadal Climate Prediction Long-term Climate Projections Customized climate products Climate Application Tools Categories of Infrastructural Capacities Basic Climate Services Cat 1 Essential Climate Services Cat 2 Full Climate Services Cat 3 Advanced Climate Service Cat 4 National Consultation on a Framework for Climate Services in Belize, Radisson, Fort George, Belize City 30 Oct to 1 Nov 2013

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