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CGE Training Materials National Greenhouse Gas Inventories Key Category Analysis

CGE Training Materials National Greenhouse Gas Inventories Key Category Analysis. Version 2, April 2012. Target Audience and Objective of the Training Materials.

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CGE Training Materials National Greenhouse Gas Inventories Key Category Analysis

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  1. CGE Training MaterialsNational Greenhouse Gas InventoriesKey Category Analysis Version 2, April 2012 Consultative Group of Experts (CGE)

  2. Target Audience and Objective of the Training Materials • These training materials are suitable for people with beginner to intermediate level knowledge of national greenhouse gas (GHG) inventory development. • After having read this presentation, in combination with the related documentation, the reader should: • Have an overview of how key category analyses are conducted • Have a general understanding of the methods available, as well as of the main challenges in that particular area • Be able to determine which methods suits their country’s situation best • Know where to find more detailed information on the topic discussed. • These training materials have been developed primarily on the basis ofmethodologies developed, by the IPCC; hence the reader is always encouraged to refer to the original documents to obtain further detailed information on a particular issue. Consultative Group of Experts (CGE) Training Materials for National Greenhouse Gas Inventories 2

  3. Acronyms and Abbreviations • AD Activity Data • GHG Greenhouse Gas • GPG Good Practice Guidance • GWP Global Warming Potential • KCA Key Category Analysis • LULUCF Land Use, Land-Use Change and Forestry • QA/QC Quality Assurance/Quality Control Consultative Group of Experts (CGE) Training Materials for National Greenhouse Gas Inventories 3

  4. Definition • A key category is one that is prioritised within the national inventory system because its estimate has a significant influence on a country’s total inventory of GHG, in terms of the: • Absolute level • The trend, or • The uncertainty in emissions and removals. • Also, national circumstances may point at additional key categories (relevant even if they do not fully meet the requisites above) based on a qualitative analysis. Consultative Group of Experts (CGE) Training Materials for National Greenhouse Gas Inventories

  5. Rationale • It is good practice to: • Identify national key categories in a systematic and objective manner, i.e. to undertake key category analysis • Use the results of the key category analysis as a basis for methodological and resource allocation choices. Improved inventory quality, as well as greater confidence in the estimates that are developed. Consultative Group of Experts (CGE) Training Materials for National Greenhouse Gas Inventories

  6. Key Category Analysis • Non-Annex I Parties are encouraged to fulfil this good practice only if they: • Have the AD needed to apply the higher level methodology and • Can collect relevant data without jeopardizing the financial resources required for the whole inventory process. • If not, the level of detail must be reduced until a balance with the available AD is reached: • Tier 3 > Tier 2 > Tier 1 • Keep in mind that KCA is a tool that helps you prioritize limited resources by: • Focusing on the most important sources/sinks of emissions in the country • Determining the most appropriate methodological approach (more detailed, higher-tier methods should be selected for key categories). Consultative Group of Experts (CGE) Training Materials for National Greenhouse Gas Inventories 6

  7. General Guidance • The current guidelines for national communications (NCs) from non-Annex I Parties encourage the use of the GPG-2000 and the GPG-LULUCF for KCA analysis. • GHG inventory compilers are required to perform KCA twice: • The key (source) categories should first be identified excluding LULUCF (i.e., key categories should be identified for the energy, industrial processes, solvent and other product use, agriculture, and waste sectors) following the guidance in GPG2000, Chapter 7 (Methodological Choice and Recalculation). • The key category analysis should then be repeated for the full inventory including the LULUCF categories. Consultative Group of Experts (CGE) Training Materials for National Greenhouse Gas Inventories

  8. Caution! • It is possible that some non-LULUCF categories identified as key in the first analysis will not appear as key when the LULUCF categories are included: • These categories should still be considered as key. • In a few cases, in countries with small net LULUCF emissions or removals, the integrated analysis may identify additional non-LULUCF categories as key: • The analysis performed for the non- LULUCF sectors should be used to identify the key categories in those sectors, and the additional non- LULUCF categories identified in the combined analysis should not be considered as key. Consultative Group of Experts (CGE) Training Materials for National Greenhouse Gas Inventories 8

  9. Identifying Key Categories • Any inventory agency that has prepared a national GHG inventory will be able to identify key categories in terms of their contribution to the absolute level of national emissions. • For those inventory agencies that have prepared a time series, the quantitative determination of key categories should include evaluation of both the absolute level and the trend of emissions and removals. • Some key categories may only be identified when their influence on the trend of the national inventory is taken into account. Consultative Group of Experts (CGE) Training Materials for National Greenhouse Gas Inventories

  10. Decision tree to choose a method in a way that is consistent with good practice Box 1 Quality of estimates: Box 3 > Box 2 > Box 1 Box 3 KCA is done for the inventory as a whole Box 2 Consultative Group of Experts (CGE) Training Materials for National Greenhouse Gas Inventories

  11. Identifying Key Categories • Good practice in determining the appropriate level of disaggregation of categories: • Use subcategory disaggregation suggested by IPCC (see sector guidance) • Consider separately each GHG for each category (default choice unless otherwise appropriate) • If data are available, undertake a separate analysis for emissions and removals. • Table 5.4.1 of the GPG-LULUCF provides information on the recommended level of aggregation for all sectors. Consultative Group of Experts (CGE) Training Materials for National Greenhouse Gas Inventories

  12. Identifying Key Categories (continued) Consultative Group of Experts (CGE) Training Materials for National Greenhouse Gas Inventories 12

  13. Determination of Significant Subcategories • For each key category, determine whether certain subcategories are particularly significant: • A subcategory is significant when it has a high contribution to the key category emissions • If information on subcategories is available, those potentially significant ones could be included in the key category analysis at the level of categories. • It is good practice to estimate emissions from significant subcategories applying the most detailed and specific methodology alllowed by the available activity data. • Non-significant subcategories can be treated with Tier 1 methods. Consultative Group of Experts (CGE) Training Materials for National Greenhouse Gas Inventories 13

  14. Approaches • Quantitative approaches to determining key categories: • Basic Tier 1 approach (level and trend) and • Tier 2 approach (level and trend), which takes uncertainties into account. • In addition to making a quantitative determination of key categories, it is good practice to consider qualitative criteria, particularly when a Tier 1 assessment is performed or lower tier estimation methods are used. • The good practice guidance provided in the two GPGs is applicable to the full inventory of emissions and removals. Consultative Group of Experts (CGE) Training Materials for National Greenhouse Gas Inventories 14

  15. Start Here! • If it is the first time, prepare a preliminary inventory for the year of interest applying Tier 1 methods for all categories. • If you already have a GHG inventory, then use the available GHG data for the most recent year. • List source and sink categories separately. • Express emissions in carbon dioxide equivalent (CO2 eq) (using the IPCC GWP values). Consultative Group of Experts (CGE) Training Materials for National Greenhouse Gas Inventories

  16. Based on assessing the influence of various categories of sources and sinks on the level, of the national GHG inventory: Quantitative Approach Tier 1: Level Assessment Key categoriesare those that, when summed together in descending order of magnitude, add up to 95 % of the sum of all Lx,t. Consultative Group of Experts (CGE) Training Materials for National Greenhouse Gas Inventories

  17. Estimate GHG Emissions and Removals LULUCF Consultative Group of Experts (CGE) Training Materials for National Greenhouse Gas Inventories 17

  18. Step 1: Only consider emissions Consultative Group of Experts (CGE) Training Materials for National Greenhouse Gas Inventories 18

  19. Step 2: Order activities in descending order Consultative Group of Experts (CGE) Training Materials for National Greenhouse Gas Inventories 19

  20. Step 3: Sum up all emissions Consultative Group of Experts (CGE) Training Materials for National Greenhouse Gas Inventories 20

  21. Step 4: Find percentage contribution Consultative Group of Experts (CGE) Training Materials for National Greenhouse Gas Inventories 21

  22. Step 5: Add up to 95% of total emissions 95% Consultative Group of Experts (CGE) Training Materials for National Greenhouse Gas Inventories 22

  23. But, this is only half of the work! LULUCF Consultative Group of Experts (CGE) Training Materials for National Greenhouse Gas Inventories 23

  24. Step 6: Convert removals into “emissions” LULUCF Consultative Group of Experts (CGE) Training Materials for National Greenhouse Gas Inventories 24

  25. Step 7: Sum up all “emissions” Consultative Group of Experts (CGE) Training Materials for National Greenhouse Gas Inventories 25

  26. Step 8: Order all activities in descending order Consultative Group of Experts (CGE) Training Materials for National Greenhouse Gas Inventories 26

  27. Step 9: Find percentage contribution of all activities Consultative Group of Experts (CGE) Training Materials for National Greenhouse Gas Inventories 27

  28. Step 10: Add up to 95% of “total emissions” 95% Consultative Group of Experts (CGE) Training Materials for National Greenhouse Gas Inventories 28

  29. Key Categories • KCA (only emissions): • Activity 4 • Activity 1 • Activity 3 • Activity 2 • Activity 5 • Activity 6 • KCA (emissions and removals) • Activity 9 • Activity 4 • Activity 1 • Activity 3 • Activity 2 • Activity 5 • Activity 6 • Activity 10 Consultative Group of Experts (CGE) Training Materials for National Greenhouse Gas Inventories 29

  30. Example from the GPG-LULUCF Consultative Group of Experts (CGE) Training Materials for National Greenhouse Gas Inventories 30

  31. Categories that may not be large enough to be identified by the level assessment, but whose trend is significantly different from the trend of the overall inventory. Quantitative approach Tier 1: Trend Assessment Categories whose trend diverges most from the total trend should be identified as key, when this difference is weighted by the level of emissions or removals of the category in the base year. Consultative Group of Experts (CGE) Training Materials for National Greenhouse Gas Inventories

  32. Quantitative approach Tier 1: Trend Assessment Example 2: Calculate the % contribution to the trend for the variable below Refrigeration and air conditioning Consultative Group of Experts (CGE) Training Materials for National Greenhouse Gas Inventories

  33. Quantitative approach Tier 1: Trend Assessment Example 2: Step 1 Refrigeration and air conditioning Calculate (Ex,t - Ex.0)/ │Ex,0│  (5-10)/ │10│ = - 0.5 Consultative Group of Experts (CGE) Training Materials for National Greenhouse Gas Inventories

  34. Quantitative approach Tier 1: Trend Assessment Example 2: Step 2 Refrigeration and air conditioning Calculate (Total inventory t - Total inventory 0) / │ Total inventory 0 │  (76-95) / │95│ = - 0.2 Consultative Group of Experts (CGE) Training Materials for National Greenhouse Gas Inventories

  35. Quantitative approach Tier 1: Trend Assessment Example 2: Step 3 Refrigeration and air conditioning Calculate the trend assessment for refrigeration and AC  (0.09) * │- 0.5 - (-0.2)│ = 0.0261 Consultative Group of Experts (CGE) Training Materials for National Greenhouse Gas Inventories

  36. Quantitative approach Tier 1: Trend Assessment Example 2: Step 4 Refrigeration and air conditioning Calculate the contribution to the trend from refrigeration and AC  0.0261 / 0.122 = 21.4% Consultative Group of Experts (CGE) Training Materials for National Greenhouse Gas Inventories

  37. Example 2: Steps 5, 6 and 7 Quantitative approach Tier 1: Trend Assessment Refrigeration and air conditioning Repeat for all sources and sinks and then … Rank sources according to their contribution to the trend Calculate cumulative contribution Identify sources contributing to 95% of the trend (Key Categories) Consultative Group of Experts (CGE) Training Materials for National Greenhouse Gas Inventories

  38. Key categories are based on uncertainty analysis, level assessment Quantitative approach Tier 2: Level Assessment with uncertainties Results should be sorted according to decreasing order of magnitude. Key Categoriesare those that add up to 90 % of the sum of all LUx,t. They should be added to the KC identified with Tier 1 and can inform inventory improvements. Consultative Group of Experts (CGE) Training Materials for National Greenhouse Gas Inventories

  39. Key categories are based on uncertainty analysis, trend assessment Quantitative approach Tier 2: Trend Assessment with uncertainties Results should be sorted according to decreasing order of magnitude. Key Categoriesare those that add up to 90 % of the sum of all TUx,t. They should be added to the KC identified with Tier 1 and can inform inventory improvements. Consultative Group of Experts (CGE) Training Materials for National Greenhouse Gas Inventories

  40. Example 3: Identify Key Categories based on Tier 2 (including uncertainty) level assessment Quantitative approach Tier 2: Level Assessment with uncertainties Consultative Group of Experts (CGE) Training Materials for National Greenhouse Gas Inventories

  41. Example 3: Step 1 Quantitative approach Tier 2: Level Assessment with uncertainties Add uncertainty data Consultative Group of Experts (CGE) Training Materials for National Greenhouse Gas Inventories

  42. Example 3: Step 2 Quantitative approach Tier 2: Level Assessment with uncertainties Multiply % uncertainty by the % contribution Consultative Group of Experts (CGE) Training Materials for National Greenhouse Gas Inventories

  43. Example 3: Step 3 Quantitative approach Tier 2: Level Assessment with uncertainties Calculate Total Consultative Group of Experts (CGE) Training Materials for National Greenhouse Gas Inventories

  44. Example 3: Step 4 Quantitative approach Tier 2: Level Assessment with uncertainties Calculate % of Total e.g. 0.025/0.22 = 11.4% Consultative Group of Experts (CGE) Training Materials for National Greenhouse Gas Inventories

  45. Example 3: Step 5 Quantitative approach Tier 2: Level Assessment with uncertainties Rank high Low Consultative Group of Experts (CGE) Training Materials for National Greenhouse Gas Inventories

  46. Example 3: Step 6 Quantitative approach Tier 2: Level Assessment with uncertainties Calculate cumulative and identify 90% contribution Consultative Group of Experts (CGE) Training Materials for National Greenhouse Gas Inventories

  47. Qualitative Criteria • Mitigation techniques and technologies: If emissions from a category are being reduced or removals increased through the use of climate change mitigation techniques, it is good practice to identify these categories as key. • High expected growth of emissions or removals: If the inventory agency expects emissions or removals from a category to grow significantly in the future, they are encouraged to identify that category as key. Some of these categories will be identified by the Trend Assessment or will be identified in the future. Because it is important to implement a higher tier good practice method as soon as possible, however, early identification using qualitative criteria is important. • High uncertainty: If the inventory agency is not taking uncertainty explicitly into account by using the Tier 2 method to identify key categories, they may want to identify the most uncertain categories as key. This is because the largest reductions in overall inventory uncertainty can be achieved by improving estimates of highly uncertain categories. Consultative Group of Experts (CGE) Training Materials for National Greenhouse Gas Inventories

  48. Qualitative Criteria • Unexpectedly high or low emissions or removals: When emissions or removals are far higher or lower than would be expected using the methods in the IPCC Guidelines, these categories should be designated as key. Particular attention to QA/QC. • Large stocks: When a small net flux results from the subtraction of large emissions and removals, the uncertainty can be very high. Thus, when moving from the Tier 1 to higher tier estimation methods the order of IPCC Source Categories may change and previously insignificant categories may become significant. • Deforestation: In the quantitative key category analysis, deforestation is spread out under the different land- use change categories (e.g., Lands converted to grassland are considered separately from Lands converted to cropland). To ensure consistency with the IPCC Guidelines, countries should identify and sum up the emission estimates associated with forest conversion to any other land category. “Deforestation” should be considered key if the sum is larger than the smallest category considered key in the quantitative analysis. Consultative Group of Experts (CGE) Training Materials for National Greenhouse Gas Inventories

  49. Qualitative Criteria • Completeness: Neither the Tier 1 nor the Tier 2 approach gives correct results if the inventory is not complete. The analysis can still be performed, but there may be key categories among those not estimated. In these cases it is good practice to qualitatively examine potential key categories applying the qualitative considerations above. The inventory of a country with similar national circumstances can also often give good indications on potential key categories. Consultative Group of Experts (CGE) Training Materials for National Greenhouse Gas Inventories

  50. Reporting and Documentation • It is good practice to: • Clearly document the results of the KCA in the inventory report • List the criteria by which each category was identified as key • e.g. Level, trend or qualitative • Indicate the method used to undertake quantitative KCA • Tier1 and/or Tier 2 • Report results using the IPCC tables Consultative Group of Experts (CGE) Training Materials for National Greenhouse Gas Inventories

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