Fostering Collaboration Between Operational NWP and Academic Communities

1. Fostering Collaboration Between Operational NWP and Academic Communities Isaac Ginis University of Rhode Island 61st Interdepartmental Hurricane Conference, March 6, 2007

2. Collaboration of the URI Research Group with NOAA’s GFDL and NCEP/EMC • The URI research group (including graduate students and postdoctoral scientists) has collaborated with GFDL and NCEP/EMC in the development and improvements of the GFDL hurricane prediction system since it became operational in 1995. • Since 2006, the URI group has been actively involved in the development of HWRF. • The primary funding for our basic research effort has been provided by NSF and ONR and for transition to operations by NOAA’s CSTAR and JHT programs.

3. Steady Reduction in Track Errors by NWP models

4. Accelerated Reduction in Intensity Errors of the GFDL Model

5. URI contribution to the GFDL hurricane forecast system • Development of the GFDL coupled hurricane-ocean system (transitioned to operations in 2001) • A new ocean model configuration and data assimilation package with improved initialization of the Gulf Stream (transitioned to operations in 2003). • Implementation of the ocean coupling in the East Pacific (transitioned to operations in 2004). • Development of the high-resolution version of the GFDL model (transitioned to operations in 2005).

6. URI contribution to the GFDL hurricane forecast system • A new air-sea momentum flux parameterization (transitioned to operations in 2006). • A new ocean initialization method that improves the representation of the Loop Current and warm-core rings in the Gulf of Mexico (transitioned to operations in 2006). • Development of the fully coupled hurricane-wave-ocean GFDL model (not yet implemented operationally due to limited computer resources available at NCEP).

7. Impact of the improved momentum flux parameterization on the GFDL model intensity forecasts implemented operationally in 2006

8. Impact of improved initialization of the Loop Current on the GFDL model intensity forecasts Central Pressure Hurricane Katrina Forecast: Initial time: Aug. 26, 18Z LC 24oN LC 27.6oN

9. URI contribution to HWRF Development • Transition of the Princeton Ocean Model for coupling with HWRF (to be implemented operationally in 2007) • Transition of an improved ocean initialization package (to be implemented operationally in 2007). • Development of a new momentum flux parameterization including the effects of wind-wave-current interaction.

10. HWRF Hurricane-Wave-Ocean System Wind-Wave-Current Interaction Atmosphere HWRF Wind & Air Temp. Flux Wind & Air Temp. SST Wave Boundary Model SST & Current Wave Spectra Flux Flux Currents, NCEP WAVEWATCH III Ocean model POM (HYCOM) Elevations, & SST Ocean Waves

11. Thoughts on improving collaboration between Academia and NWP centers • Operational forecast systems are very complex. For successful transition the research findings to operations, scientists in academia should seek establishing sustained close collaboration with the NWP centers. • Close collaboration with the NWP centers will allow scientists in academia to better understand the operational constrains and requirements. • Not all new findings can be immediately implemented operationally due to limited computer power available at the operational centers.

12. Thoughts on improving collaboration between Academia and NWP centers • Often software written for a research model needs to be rewritten by the academic researcher to meet the operational requirements. • After the new software is implemented in the operational system, careful testing must be performed in a quasi-operational environment. • Sometimes the implemented software that showed promising results in a research model may not have positive impact on the operational model forecasts.

13. Thoughts on improving collaboration between Academia and NWP centers • During the transition and evaluation periods close coordination between the academic research group and the NWP center personnel involved in the project is essential. This requires sustained commitment ofbothparties. • After the new software is transferred to operations, the academic researchers may be asked to continue being involved in its maintenance until the NWP center staff is trained to maintain and use it optimally.

14. Thoughts on improving collaboration between Academia and NWP centers • Typically, testing and implementation of new software requires significant additional computational resources which may not be always available at the NWP centers. • Therefore it is imperative to establish super-computer facilities independent from the NWP operational missions.

15. Thoughts on improving collaboration between Academia and NWP centers • Access to super-computers should also be available to academia for conducting basic research. It will provide opportunity for • more efficient development and testing new physical parameterizations • using much higher spatial resolution hurricane models than those permitted operationally • training graduate students in NWP technology

16. Thoughts on improving collaboration between Academia and NWP centers • Significant advances in hurricane intensity and structure prediction with NWP models can only be achieved with substantial increase in funding to academia and the NWP centers.