‘Adapting Good Enough’ for a Complex World (using the science of complexity)

Rich Byrne Vice President, The MITRE Corporation rbyrne@mitre.org ‘Adapting Good Enough’ for a Complex World(using the science of complexity)

OPERATIONS: Why is Winning a War Easy, but Keeping the Peace Hard?

ACQUISITION: Have We Lost the Recipe forBig Programs?

CYBER:How Do You Fight a Virtual War where the Enemy has the all the Asymmetric Advantages?

And It’s Not Just in the DOD Financial Meltdown Healthcare Crisis

Complexity Theory May Have an Answer! 2002 2009 2003 2007 2005

Unpredictable Emergent Behavior is Ubiquitous From ‘Fixed Perfect’ Requirements (watchmaker) to ‘Adapting Good Enough” Requirements (gardener)

‘Adapting Good Enough’ Successes(80% Solution) >60% of Army systems in theater aren’t Programs of Record CPOF TIGR ROVER GMTI Predator Falconview Innovation Easier Than Integration (Healthy Complex Networks a Balance!)

Composable Capability on Demand (Harmonizing Innovation with Integration) RSS, Mashups, Chat, Office APPLICATIONS Loose Couplers for Global Integration across “Groups” SOA1 SOA2 SOA3 ESB ERP Web2.0 REST CoT, UCORE, Ontologies INFO INFRASTRUCTURE TADILJ Link-22 Nato-Ex JVMF USMTF EPLRS ACARS IP Gateways, IPoL, IP Continuous and Rapid Local Innovations in “Groups” NETWORKS INMARSAT JTIDS JTRS ARC210 TTNT CTII PRC117 GeoRSS, SensorXML SENSORS SIGINT IMINT OSINT MASINT Cellphones Humans Commercial

Virtualization (A Key Enabler of CCoD) • SPEED • ISPAN: Deployment from 1-12 wks to 8 hrs • WEIGHT • TDC: Reduced from 1800 to 600 lbs • FOOTPRINT • AOC: 60% less machines, 78% less power/HVAC • ADAPTABILITY • Composable Ops Centers on Demand using App Stores

Large NetworksHave Radically Different Statistics From Bell Curves to Power Laws

Direct Fire Mission: What: Hostile Where: 72.558º... When: 1950Z—… Details: www. biggun.army//... Surveillance results: What: ISR data Where: 73º—74º... When: 1930Z—… Details: www. intel.af//... Blue Force Tracking: What: Friendly Where: 72.31234º... When: 1930Z—… Details: www.4thBgd//... Air Space Deconfliction: What: Reservation Where: 72º, 73º, 74º, When: 1950Z—… Details: www. batttery.army... Loose Couplers Applied toEnterprise Data Sharing

UAV SA JFCOM Cmdr. James M. Joyner, “a de facto standard for tactical system integration." (1/06/05) Scan Eagle UAV Data Sharing Using Loose Couplers (Based on Power Laws) Predator-Link16 “we are using the C2PC adapter for our Scan Eagle UAV’s. ..working extremely well…we want more!” S/F, Maj Rob Buzby IMEF Info Management Officer Camp Fallujah Iraq (11/12/04) Pioneer

Diverse Local Innovations Above and Below the Convergent IP Loose Coupler Loose Couplers at Network Level Ecommerce Applications Searches Email Application Diversity Targeting Payroll DWM Datalinks Ethernet Dial-Up Cable Modem ATM Technologies IP (loose coupler) IP IP (loose coupler) DSL Datalink Diversity SONET Datalinks SONET Dial-Up ATM Ethernet Cable Modem Technologies DWM DSL

IP-Based System E-mail Imagery SA Chat IP Transport Radio Driver PC + Legacy Radio JSTARS & AWACS IP/Chat as Loose Couplers (Based on Power Laws)

Self-OrganizingCritical States Are Natural From Centralized (single failure point) to Decentralized (distributed failure points)

COIN Collector on the iPhone

Accept Uncertainty From Protection (they will get in) to Resilience (fight thru attack)

Resilient Cyber Solutions (Reversing the Asymmetric Advantage) Constantly Change the Attack Surface from a Million Random Variations VM ‘physics’ is very different Assume Attacks Will Succeed & Rebuild VMs Routinely Separate Internal/External Networks to Slow Down Massive Data Exfiltration

Complexity Best Shaped withLong Term not Short Term Variables From Short Term Targets (symptoms) to Long Term Targets (underlying diseases)

Internet and Proselytizing Recruitment and Education Media and Propaganda WMD Research and Development Safe Havens $ Facilitators, Smugglers Financiers and Front Companies Ideologically Sympathetic NGOs Sympathetic Members of Legitimate Govt’s Human Capital Fighters and Leaders Technical Expertise Weapons Suppliers Training Camps Smart Power’s Longer Term FocusFor “Deep Security” AQAM EXTREMIST IDEOLOGY

‘Adapting GoodEnough’for aComplex World Emergent Behavior (CCoD)From: Perfect, fixed req’ts To: Adaptive, good enough req‘ts Power Laws (LOOSE COUPLERS)From: Uniform data interopreq’ts To: 80/20 data interopreq’ts SOC (POWER TO THE EDGE)From: Centralized solutions To: Decentralized solutions Uncertainty (FIGHT THRU ATTACK)From: Eliminating uncertainty/risk To: Accepting uncertainty/risk Deep Security (SMART POWER)From: Short-term symptoms To: Long-term diseases

Changing Impossible Problems Into Great Opportunities CYBER: Taking Back the Initiative in Cyber • Asymmetry: Dramatically increase the cost of cyber attacks • Mission focus: Use technology for effectiveness, not efficiency • Doctrine: Learn to leverage the ‘new’ physics of cyber (time, space, cost) OPERATIONS: Winning Battles of Complexity • Decentralize: Push power to the edge • Adapt: Enable warriors to compose new capabilities on demand • Focus: Address the long term networks, not just the short term threats ACQUISITIONS: Getting Back the Recipe • Cost: Maintain continuous competition and evolution of small things • Schedule: Build integrate-able components not integrated systems • Performance: Fixed perfect req’ts become adaptive good enough req’ts

Enterprise Systems Eng The Gardener: Plant, Fertilize, Weed; Repeat. Dynamic: Constant Change Competitive: Crops compete Scale Free: 80-20 Rule ‘Adapting Good Enough’For a Complex World Traditional Systems Eng The Watchmaker: Everything has its place. Static: As Is – To Be Views Passive: One Design Choice Uniform: All Parts Are Equal

‘Adapting Good Enough’ for a Complex World (using the science of complexity)