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Adapting Good Enough for a Complex World using the science of complexity

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Adapting Good Enough for a Complex World using the science of complexity

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    1. ‘Adapting Good Enough’ for a Complex World (using the science of complexity) Rich Byrne Vice President, The MITRE Corporation rbyrne@mitre.org This talk proposes a common root cause for the pervasive problems that plague DOD acquisitions and operations. The traditional systems engineering thinking being used today no longer holds when the systems and their environments are so complex that they require a radical rethink of the basic engineering principles used. A set of these new principles and examples of their impact will be discussed from adaptive C2 systems to enterprise data sharing to reversing the cyber asymmetric threat.This talk proposes a common root cause for the pervasive problems that plague DOD acquisitions and operations. The traditional systems engineering thinking being used today no longer holds when the systems and their environments are so complex that they require a radical rethink of the basic engineering principles used. A set of these new principles and examples of their impact will be discussed from adaptive C2 systems to enterprise data sharing to reversing the cyber asymmetric threat.

    2. OPERATIONS: Why is Winning a War Easy, but Keeping the Peace Hard?

    3. ACQUISITION: Have We Lost the Recipe for Big Programs?

    4. CYBER: How Do You Fight a Virtual War where the Enemy has the all the Asymmetric Advantages?

    5. And It’s Not Just in the DOD

    6. Complexity Theory May Have an Answer!

    7. Unpredictable Emergent Behavior is Ubiquitous

    8. ‘Adapting Good Enough’ Successes (80% Solution)

    9. Sensor breakthrough will change all radar designs of the future Networks to the edge using mobile devices and adaptive algorithms promise dramatic connectivity improvements in theater Infrastructure efficiency through virtualization and rapid, cheap enterprise data sharing through loose coupler concepts App stores for military mobile devices and App stores for building ops centers on demand Sensor breakthrough will change all radar designs of the future Networks to the edge using mobile devices and adaptive algorithms promise dramatic connectivity improvements in theater Infrastructure efficiency through virtualization and rapid, cheap enterprise data sharing through loose coupler concepts App stores for military mobile devices and App stores for building ops centers on demand

    11. Large Networks Have Radically Different Statistics

    12. Loose Couplers Applied to Enterprise Data Sharing

    13. UAV Data Sharing Using Loose Couplers (Based on Power Laws)

    14. Loose Couplers at Network Level 14

    15. JSTARS & AWACS IP/Chat as Loose Couplers (Based on Power Laws)

    16. Self-Organizing Critical States Are Natural

    17. COIN Collector on the iPhone 17

    18. Accept Uncertainty

    20. Complexity Best Shaped with Long Term not Short Term Variables

    21. Smart Power’s Longer Term Focus For “Deep Security”

    22. ‘Adapting Good Enough’ for a Complex World

    23. Changing Impossible Problems Into Great Opportunities CYBER: Taking Back the Initiative in Cyber Asymmetry: Dramatically increase the cost of cyber attacks Mission focus: Use technology for effectiveness, not efficiency Doctrine: Learn to leverage the ‘new’ physics of cyber (time, space, cost)

    24. ‘Adapting Good Enough’ For a Complex World

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