Brutal Facts and Big Steps

1. Brutal Facts and Big Steps Dr. Scott Ralls, President North Carolina Community College System www.nccommunitycolleges.edu

2. Education is Economic Development

3. Divergent Skill Distributions Demographic Shifts Changing Economy

4. North Carolina Population Pyramids Percent of Total Population: Age and Gender 2030 2000 Male Female Male Female

5. Diverging Hourly Wages Total dollar wage for manufacturing workers in U.S. $

6. Third International Mathematics and Science Study • Percentage of eighth-grade students reaching the advancedbenchmark in 2003 • Singapore 44% • Taiwan 38% • South Korea 35% • Hong Kong 35% • Japan 24% • United States 7%

7. China • Increasing scholarships and other student aid from $240 million in 2006 to $2.7 billion in 2008 • Plans to expand government spending on education from 2.8% of GDP to 4% by 2010.

8. Share of foreign-born scientists and engineers in U.S. By degree level: 1990 and 2000

9. Young People Losing Ground: High School Attainment of Younger and Older Adults U.S. and OECD Countries, 2005 Source: Education at a Glance, 2007, Organisation for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD); prepared by National Center for Higher Education Management Systems (NCHEMS). *Japan data is from 2004.

10. North Carolina High School Pipeline

11. …at 2-year colleges? * Median of top five states. Source: Source: National Center for Public Policy and Higher Education, Measuring Up 2004, http://measuringup.highereducation.org/database.cfm.

12. Brutal Fact #1 • The emerging "nontraditional" student and the vanishing African American male student

13. "Traditional" but not normal • "Traditional" = recent high school graduates enrolled as full-time residential students • One out of five undergraduates -- 20% -- in US now "traditional"

14. "Nontraditional" = older, working, rearing families, commuting, stopping in and out, part-time Most of 72% national increase in undergrads since 1970 driven by "nontraditional" students Almost 2 out of 3 -- 64% -- of highly nontraditional students go to community colleges. "Nontraditional" the new normal

15. The VanishingAfrican American Male Student • African-American males = 16%of NC K-12 public school students • African-American men = 8% of NC Community College System's curriculum headcount (06-07), 16,885 total. • Number of African-American male community college graduates declining in each of past three years as benefits of education rapidly growing.

16. Brutal Fact #2 • Facing the consequences of North Carolina's community college completion rates and the costs of remediation

17. "Traditional" 23% leave first year 57% complete their programs "Non-traditional" 46% leave first year (48 % in NC) With at least two risk factors, <15% complete programs Completion Rates

18. North Carolina:Going the wrong way • National community college completion rates improving • North Carolina's worsening,because: • Lack of intent to earn a degree • Work recruitment prior to graduation • Financial pressures • Inability to quality for financial aid • Lack of academic preparedness

19. How many high school students graduate on time? * Median of top five states. Source: Manhattan Institute, April 2006, Leaving Boys Behind: Public High School Graduation Rates.

20. Understanding Completion – Achieving the Dream • Full and part-time students • Six years after entering (not 150% of “normal time”) • Earned degree or certificate • Transferred without award • Enrolled in year six with at least 30 college credits

21. Brutal Fact #3 • North Carolina's looming work force shortage, the emerging role of immigrants, and the consequences of low college-going rates.

22. Key Labor Source: Immigrants • By 2016, NC population likely up 15%(US just 9%) • Last 10 years, NC foreign-born population grew 272% -- tops in US • Asian --up128% • Hispanic/ Latino -- up394%

23. Brutal Fact #4 • Balancing rising enrollments, lagging faculty salaries and inadequate equipment funds with expanding needs for graduates

24. 2002-2009 Enrollment Increases in NC Community College SystemFull-Time Equivalent Students (FTE)

25. Technology Utilization and System Simplification • Effectively utilize existing technologies and simplify procedures, policies, and communications so that colleges may be more nimble, efficient, and accountable. • Essential for staying ahead of changing economy, demographics, skills distributions

26. Name these places Dubai Dubai Today Ten Years Ago

27. 1900 American Cotton Oil American Steel American Sugar Ref. Continental Tobacco Federal Steel General Electric National Lead Pacific Mail People’s Gas Tennessee Coal/Iron U.S. Leather U.S. Rubber 2000 General Motors Wal-Mart Exxon Ford General Electric IBM Citigroup AT&T Phillip Morris Boeing BankAmerica SBC Communications 12 Largest U.S. Companies

28. University of Phoenix Stadium

29. Axia College at the University of Phoenixhttp://www.axiacollege.com/how-axia-college-works.asp

30. 2002 Miami-Dade Comm. College54,926 University of Texas (Austin)52,261 The Ohio State University49,676 University of Minnesota48,677 2004 University of Phoenix115,794 Miami-Dade Comm. College57,026 The Ohio State University50,995 University of Minnesota50,954 Four Largest Colleges in U.S.

31. Economic and Workforce Development • Enhance economic and workforce development by transforming customized training programs, strengthening technical education, expanding health care programs, and developing strategic partnerships.

32. Program Completion and Low-Income Students Increase program completion rates and college opportunities for low-income students.

33. Seamless Education Promote seamless education by collaborating with public schools (to increase college and workplace readiness, reduce the number of high school dropouts, and increase dropout recovery) and with the UNC System (to increase strategic two-plus-two program completion opportunities).

34. Budgeting, Planning, and Advocacy Develop long-term budgeting and planning strategies and increase the advocacy and financial support of community colleges throughout North Carolina.

35. Terry Sanford You will hear some whisperings abroad saying that we have done enough, have moved well and far and rapidly, and so it is time now to slow down, rest, and catch our breath.These whispers come from the fearful and those who have always opposed the accomplishments from which they would now rest. This cannot be and is not the spirit of North Carolina. Much remains to be done,to provide better educational opportunities for the competition our children will surely face, to encourage broader economic developmentso everybody will have a better chance to make a better living. Now is the time to move forward.Now is no time to loaf along.