Lecture 22 FACING BRUTAL FACTS AND THE STOCKDALE PARADOX

1. Lecture 22 FACING BRUTAL FACTS AND THE STOCKDALE PARADOX

2. Good To GreatJim Collins

3. The Bus Trip To Greatness 1 Who? 2 What? 3 How? 4 Why? 5 Where? 5 When? 5 Cost? What Are The Challenges?

4. THE GOOD-TO-GREAT FRAMEWORK Level 5 Leadership First Who…. Then What… 1. Disciplined People 2. Disciplined Thought

5. Confront The Brutal Facts The Good-to-Great Organizations displayed two distinctive forms of DISCIPLINED THOUGHT: • They infused the entire process with the BRUTAL FACTS OF REALITY; • They established A SIMPLE, YET DEEPLY INSIGHTFUL, FRAME OF REFERENCE for all decisions;

6. THE GOOD-TO-GREAT FRAMEWORK Level 5 Leadership First Who…. Then What… Confronting Brutal Facts 1. Disciplined People 2. Disciplined Thought

7. CONFRONT THE BRUTAL FACTS Leadership is about vision as well as creating a climate where the truth is heard and the brutal facts confronted It is impossible to make a series of good decisions without first confronting the brutal facts.

8. CONFRONT THE BRUTAL FACTS There is a huge difference between the opportunity to “have your say” and the opportunity to be heard. The good-to-great leaders understand this distinction, hence creating a culture wherein people have a tremendous opportunity to be heard and, ultimately, for the truth to be heard and implemented.

9. Confront The Brutal Facts Case Study IV: Kroger vs A&P • Both old companies (Kroger 82 yrs, A&P 111 yrs); • Heading into 1970s: both had nearly all their assets invested in traditional grocery stores; • Both had had knowledge of how the world around them was changing; • Yet one confronted the brutal facts of reality head-on and completely changed its entire system in response and succeeded; the other stuck its head in the sand and failed.

10. CREATING A CLIMATEWHERE TRUTH IS HEARD Lead With Questions not Answers Engage in Dialogue and Debate not Coercion Conduct Autopsies Without Blame Build a “Red Flag” Mechanism

11. SOUTH AFRICA’S HDI: TRENDS 1980 – PRESENT

12. NORWAY’S HDI: TRENDS 1980 -PRESENT

13. Rwanda’s HDI

15. MOST RELIGIOUS NATIONS OF THE WORLD

16. GLOBAL PEACE INDEX(GPI) 2009

17. GLOBAL PEACE INDEX (GPI) 2009

18. WORLD POPULATION GROWTH RATE 2005-2010

19. REGIONAL STATISTICS FOR HIV & AIDS, 2009

20. PEOPLE LIVING WITH HIV/AIDS WORLD MAP

21. MALARIA ENDEMIC COUNTRIES 2003

22. WORLD HOMICIDE RATES

23. URBAN POPULATION LIVING IN SLUMS

24. KENYA’S KIBERA, NAIROBI SLUM

25. WORLD ALCOHOL CONSUMPTION PER CAPITA

26. Confronting The Brutal Facts It did not matter how bleak the situation or how dampening their mediocrity, the good-to-great companies maintained unwavering faith that they would not just survive, but prevail as a great company. And yet, at the same time, they became relentlessly disciplined at confronting the most brutal facts of their current reality.

27. Good To GreatJim Collins

28. Admiral James Stockdale "I never lost faith in the end of the story, I never doubted not only that I would get out, but also that I would prevail in the end and turn the experience into the defining event of my life, which, in retrospect, I would not trade.”

29. Retain faith that you will prevail in the end, regardless of the difficulties and at the same time confront the most brutal facts of your current reality, whatever they might be.

30. CASE STUDIES • Pitney Bowes(PB) Vs Addressograph(AD) Chapter 4, page 70,paragraph 2 • Sir Winston Churchill

31. Kroger was like Stockdale, and A&P was like the optimists who always thought they’d be out by Christmas. • Pitney Bowes versus Addressograph both facing the loss of their monopolies; and Churchill faced with the might of Hitler; all demonstrated this paradoxical psychological pattern – the Stockdale Paradox. • The Stockdale paradox is a signature of all those who create greatness, be it in leading their own lives or in leading others.

33. Chapter 43, page 756, 3rd Paragraph: Would my colleagues and I have embarked on our journey had we known the hazards and perils we would face when we formed the People’s Action Part (PAP) in November 1954? Had we known how complex and difficult were the problems that lay ahead, we would never have gone into politics with the high spirits, enthusiasm, and idealism of the 1950s

34. Chapter 43, page 757, 1st Paragraph: We pressed on, oblivious of the dangers ahead. Our visceral urges were stronger than our cerebral inhibitions. Once plunged in, we were sucked ever deeper into the struggle. We had to fight the communists sooner than we expected, contending against their open-front labor, student, and cultural organizations, all backed by their armed underground.

35. Chapter 43, page 757, 1st & 2nd Paragraphs: We overcame one problem only to be faced with an even more daunting one. There were times it looked hopeless. We learnt some valuable lessons in those early years as apprentices in the exercise of power. We never stopped learning because the situation kept on changing and we had to adjust our own policies.

36. Chapter 4, Page 87, 2nd Paragraph: If I have to choose one word in explaining why Singapore succeeded, it is confidence. This was what made foreign investors site their factories and refineries here. Confidence…

37. Public Sector Private Sector NGOs Nationalities Education Integrity, Quality, Patriotism Mature Society Strong Moral Foundation United Confidence in the Future of Singapore Ethnicity Social Class Nepotism Religion Ignorance Immature Society

38. Developing the Indomitable Spirit “I am a slow walker, but I never walk backwards” Abraham Lincoln

39. Developing the Indomitable Spirit • Walt Disney went to 312 banks before he was financed for his cartoon animations • He went bankrupt seven times • John Creasey received 753 publishers’ rejections before the first of his 550 books was published