Will Strategic Housing Market Assessments in England be given an appropriate role ?

1. Regional Studies Association Conference Winter 2013“Mobilising Regions: Territorial Strategies for Growth” Will Strategic Housing Market Assessments in England be given an appropriate role? Theme : Cooperation, disputes and resistance around particular territorial development strategies, models, and interventions • Dr Martin Field & Dr Bob Colenutt , University of Northampton, UK Prof Allan Cochrane, Open University, UK [martin.field@northampton.ac.uk]

2. PRESENTATION CONTENT • SHMA policy in the UK • Focus of SHMA practice • SHMAs in ESRC study • Reports in study area • Drawbacks in practice • 2013 amendments • Unaddressed shortfalls • Suggestions for change • Conclusions

3. SHMA objectives in the UK Key objectives of SHMA [DCLG, 2007]: • to enable practitioners to assess housing need and demand in their areas • to enable local authorities and regions to gain a good appreciation of the characteristics of housing market areas and how they function.

4. Focus of SHMA practice • ‘HMA’ = “geograph[ies] defined by household demand and preference for housing” • ‘Demand’ = housing required for sale or rent • ‘Need’ = unable to access housing without assistance • Develop long-term strategic views.... [and] appraise strategic options • To think spatially • Deliver “robust and credible” reports Typical core outputs (MKC) : - Estimates of current dwellings - Analysis of past & current market trends - Estimate future number of households - Estimate of current households in need - Estimate of households requiring market housing - Estimate of the size of affordable housing required - Estimate of household groups who have particular requirements

5. SHMAs in ESRC study (1) • Study area is a part of two previous UK regions (UK government does not now support ‘regional’ concept) • East Midlands region, with Northamptonshire containing seven local councils, in two HMAs • South East region, containing the unitary authority of Milton Keynes in an HMA by itself

6. SHMAs in ESRC study (2) • Dates of assessments : - NN 2007 / 2012 update - WN 2010 - MK 2008 / 2013 update • Context from Regional Plans, and feeding into Core Spatial Strategies • Individual local authorities tied into joint collaborative work and data collections

7. Indicative reports in study area • Projections of population and growth • Use of primary or secondary data • Role of affordable housing ++ • Single adult households increasing • Unpalatable results to suppliers • Influence from government policy

8. Drawbacks in SHMA practice • SHMAs as useful aid to ‘territorial development’? • Inconsistent approachto practical assessments • ‘Needs’ based model not inclusive of wider ‘market drivers’ • Debates on “robust & credible” : results amended to suit local stakeholders • Small scope to steer meaningful ‘interventions’

9. Government amendments 2012/3 • Retained role in National Planning Policy Framework • New SHMA draft: assess “housing & economic development needs” • Evidence future quantity of market and affordable units • Include housing scale, mix & tenure across the market • Separate draft of new duty for “land assessment” Market areas to be now deduced from datasets: - House prices and rates of change in house prices - Household migration and search patterns - Contextual data : e.g. travel to work boundaries; retail and school catchment areas

10. Unaddressed SHMA shortfalls • Likely to be passive summaries of area data • Limited assessment of household aspirations • Small regard for business drivers : viability / supply • Overly ‘fluid’ approach to boundary changes • Limited engagement with local communities

11. Suggestions to revise SHMA approach • Assessments must look at all aspirations and drivers • Combine household, supply, land, viability & community inputs into one holistic tool • Promote neighbourhoods as fundamental to market compositions • Connect HMA context with specific support for local economic policies • Detail the basis and scope for legitimate local ‘market intervention’ Bob’s comments: • Make a more specific list of what should be in future assessments: - Land ownership, suppliers sub-sections, costs and prices, etc. - Simple description of the new stock required - relevance of parts to an holistic whole

12. Concluding remarks • Debate continues about strong or weak markets • ‘Failing market’ subsumed within UK ‘delivery crisis’ • Need remains to have tools to dissect localities • Frameworks must focus on sensible interventions • SHMAs currently focused on ‘assessment’ and not enough on ‘strategy’ Bob’s comments: Re-orientate concluding remarks on future SHMAs into making them much more dynamic, and effective as market analysis & influence

13. References • ESRC project ES/I038632/1 : “Tensions and Future Prospects for Sustainable Housing Growth” • DETR (2006) : Planning Policy Statement 3 : Housing [PPS3] • DCLG (2007) : Strategic Housing Market Assessments – Practice Guidance, Version 2 • DCLG (2010) : Housing Market Areas and Regional Spatial Geographies • DCLG (2012) : National Planning Policy Framework • DCLG (2013) : Assessment of housing and economic development needs, http://planningguidance.planningportal.gov.uk, August – October 2013 • DCLG (2013) : Land Assessment Guidance, http://planningguidance.planningportal.gov.uk, August – October 2013 • TSO (2011) : Localism Act 2011, www.legislation.gov.uk • E Ferrari, D L Laughlin & C Watkins (2011) : Planning and the Housing Market : reflections on strategic housing market assessment in England, Town Planning Review, 82(4), 2011, p393 - 423 • S Hinks & M Baker (2013) : Housing Market Areas and the strategic planning of housing In England, Town Planning Review, 84(1), 2013, p127 – 152 • KPMG / Shelter (2013) : Homes for the next generation : Lessons from the West Midlands, www.kpmg.com/uk • North Northamptonshire Joint Planning Unit (2012) : SHMA Update, August 2012