The Global Voice of ATM: ADS-B Benefits in APAC

1. The Global Voice of ATM ADS-B in APAC and ADS-B Benefits The global voice of ATM

2. Background • In July 2008, CANSO agreed to conduct a Cost Benefit Analysis for the ADS-B project over the South China Sea involving Indonesia, Vietnam and Singapore. • The study was conducted with the support of IATA and CANSO members (FAA and CAAS) and completed in 2009. The global voice of ATM

3. Objectives • To determine the benefits & costs of ADS-B implementation for the project • As an example of good governance in developing a business case for the project • To promote regional collaboration and harmonisation among ANSPs and users The global voice of ATM

4. Project Scope The global voice of ATM

5. Project Scope The global voice of ATM

6. Project Scope The global voice of ATM

7. Study Assumptions • ADS-B data sharing across FIRs • Provision of VHF communications to adjacent ANSPs when required • Provision of radar-like separation in restricted airspace • Analysis based on extrapolation of CAAS traffic data and IATA’s demand projections • Estimated infrastructure cost The global voice of ATM

8. Traffic Demand Forecast • Given the recent economic downturn and the volatility of projections, we conducted a sensitivity analysis based on the following scenarios: Low: 3% growth Medium: 5% growth High: 7% growth Note: The medium and most probable growth rate for air traffic is set at 5% based on IATA’s Forecast AAGR (2007-2011) for APAC which is 5.9% for pax and 5.4% for freight. The global voice of ATM

9. Aircraft Equipage • Information presented at SEA ADS-B WG/1 in 2007 showed that about 60% of aircraft in the area were transmitting ADS-B data although this does not take into account the certification or accuracy of the data. • A review of flights operating in the area from Jul- Oct 2008 reinforced this point, where 61.9% were assessed to be ADS-B capable. • 25% of the remaining were assessed as retrofit ready (during scheduled maintenance) The global voice of ATM

10. Aircraft Equipage • New aircraft delivered are all ADS-B capable • Fleet retirements due to economic climate will enhance capabilities • Retrofit timelines would be encouraged by an effective mandate • With an effective mandate, more than 85% of aircraft would be ADS-B (Out) capable The global voice of ATM

11. Benefits - Optimum Flight Altitudes • Examine fuel savings for flights that currently do not receive optimum altitude • Examine flights that are currently delayed before receiving optimum altitude. ANSP B ANSP C ANSP A    DATA DATA DATA Optimum (Requested) Flight Level (FL) BENEFIT BENEFIT Assumed FL In FIR A Actual FL In FIR B Assumed FL In FIR C Destination Departure Estimated Elapsed Time The global voice of ATM

12. Benefits - Capacity Increase • Examine delays due to limited capacity vs. the demand forecast. • Examine hourly demand vs. hourly capacity and run a queuing model to estimate delay difference between baseline capacity and new ADS-B enabled capacity • Monetize delay savings benefit in terms of reduced Aircraft Direct Operating Costs and Passenger Value of Time Example of Hourly Demand The global voice of ATM

13. Costs - Infrastructure • ADS-B stations • VHF radio & communications circuits • ATM system upgrades where applicable • Project management & training • Recurrent costs e.g. maintenance and spares • Supporting infrastructure if needed The global voice of ATM

14. Economic Analysis • Business Case • Net Present Value (NPV) [> 0] • Benefit to Cost Ratio (B/C ratio) [> 1] • Internal Rate of Return (IRR) [> Cost of Capital] • Payback Year Example of outputs The global voice of ATM

15. Results of Cost Benefit Study(For a 5% medium traffic growth scenario) • Annual savings of nearly 3 million lbs of fuel burn • Annual reduction of 10 million lbs of CO2 emissions • Total Economic savings of over US $ 4m annually • IRR of 22% The global voice of ATM

16. Other Benefits • Improved safety – enhanced tracking of aircraft, weather deviations etc • Improved surveillance facilitates Search and Rescue efforts • Environmental benefits – greater operational efficiency leading to lower carbon emissions • Improved flight data collection for analysis and planning The global voice of ATM

17. Recommendation of SEA/BOB ADS-B WG/7 “ADS-B Out” based surveillance applications as modules be included in the Aviation System Block Upgrade Document. These modules should include: - Improved air traffic operations through provision of surveillance (using ADS-B or radar); - Improved access to optimum flight levels through climb/descent & cruise using ADS-B or radar; and Improved safety, efficiency and seamlessness using shared surveillance services across FIR boundaries. Post Meeting: ICAO Headquarters accepted this and agreed that an amended ASBU B0-85 Module would be developed to take this into account.

18. Cost Benefit Study for South China Sea project Completed and published in May 2009. Available to download from: www.canso.org/asiapacific

19. Project milestones for initial phase of ADS-B implementation over the South China Sea A Installation of ADS-B ground stations • Natunas and Matak - completed • Singapore - completed • Con Son - 2H 2012 B Installation of VHF stations and links  • Natunas and Matak - 1H2012 • Conson - 2H2012 C Signing of ADS-B data and VHF radio facility sharing agreement i) Between Indonesia and Singapore - 2H2010 completed ii) Between Vietnam and Singapore - 2H2011 completed D Signing of LOA between Ho Chi Minh and Singapore ACCs - 1H2012 E Issue AIC on aircraft equipage mandate - 2H 2010 completed F Technical Monitoring of ADS-B operations - 1H 2012 G Operational trial and implementaion - 2H 2012/implementation 2H2013 H Exclusive ADS-B operations for L642 and M771 above FL290 - 2H2013

20. CANSO ADS-B SEMINAR FOR CIVIL AVIATION AUTHORITY OF THE PHILIPPINES 11 August 2010, MANILA

21. Proposed ADS-B coverage for additional high density routes over the South China Sea Manila N884 M771 L642 Quezon Pahlawan Con Son M767 Brunei Natuna Matak Singapore Routes benefitting from the additional coverage Operational Trials on L642 and M771 Proposed ADS-B Coverage Current ADS-B Project Coverage

22. Automatic Dependent Surveillance – Broadcast (ADS-B) Seminar for Department of Civil Aviation, Myanmar Civil Aviation Training Institute, Yangon 22 February 2011

23. Myanmar ADS-B Implementation Plan Radar ADS-B Lashio Airport Manday International Airport Kyaing Tone Airport 5 ADS-B stations proposed Sittwe Airport 3 SSR radar for En-route 1 PSR for Terminal Yangon International Airport Pathein Airport Coo co island Airport Myeik Airport

24. Potential ADS-B coverage for high density routes over Bay of Bengal Calcutta Bubaneshwar Sittwe Vishakhapatnam Mahanadi Basin Pathien Coco Island Bangkok Krishna-Godavari Basin Chennai Andaman Nicobar Basin Port Blair Trincomalee Car Nicobar Phuket Aceh High Density Routes over Bay of Bengal Potential ADS-B coverage from sites on land Potential ADS-B coverage from offshore sites

29. 48th DGCA CONFERENCE Action Item 48/4: Recognising that the full benefits of ADS-B would only be achieved through harmonized implementation, the Conference urges States and Administrations to expedite ADS-B implementation and share with ICAO Regional Office their implementation plans.

30. Regional Collaboration The global voice of ATM

31. In 2009 intra-Asia Pacific travel eclipsed North America as the world’s largest aviation market. The global voice of ATM

32. The Global Voice of ATM CANSO Headquarters Transpolis Schiphol Airport Polaris Avenue 85e 2132 JH Hoofddorp the Netherlands tel: +31 (0)23 568 5380 fax: +31 (0)23 568 5389 email: info@canso.org The global voice of ATM