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Ideas for NWS EPS Advancement

This study focuses on the advancement of the NWS Ensemble Prediction System (EPS), covering components like observations, data assimilation, models, ensemble, post-processing, verification, and user education. It emphasizes the importance of value-based metrics and user-centric design, thorough verification, and user education for optimal decision making.

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Ideas for NWS EPS Advancement

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  1. Ideas for NWS EPS Advancement Tony Eckel Naval Postgraduate School

  2. EPS Components • Foundation: Observations, Data Assimilation, the Model(s), Model Resolution, … • Ensemble: Initial Condition Perturbations, Model Perturbations, # of Members, … III. Exploitation: Post-processing, Products, Verification, User Education, …

  3. Design all components based on Value first, Skill second • Evolving to “service paradigm” with focus on optimizing users’ decision processes requires different emphasis for measuring forecast quality since skill ≠value • Metrics of Value (e.g., ROCSS, VS, etc.) measure quality from user perspective • Metrics of Skill (e.g., BSS, CRPS, etc.) are important for scientific evaluation • Requires intimate relationship with users to understand their weather sensitivities and risk tolerances

  4. Post-Processing • Truth: Must capture phenomena and scales of concern to user • Reforecast dataset required for robust calibration • Match EPS design (no short cuts!) • Length dependent upon capturing user phenomena • Down-scaling critical to value • Meteorological consistency within each member may be challenging issue

  5. Thorough and Open Verification • Critical to building user confidence • Focused on user sensitivities • User-friendly: web-based, interactive, well documented, etc. • Continuously updated • Link with products and education

  6. User Education • Need campaign (concerted effort) to teach users methods for optimal decision making given forecast uncertainty information • Broad-based: Specific users and general public • Include detailed strengths and weaknesses of the EPS

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