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Crop Outlook and Farm Programs

Crop Outlook and Farm Programs. Farm Management In-Service Ames, Iowa May 11, 2010 Chad Hart Assistant Professor/Grain Markets Specialist chart@iastate.edu 515-294-9911. U.S. Corn Supply and Use. Source: USDA. U.S. Soybean Supply and Use. Source: USDA. Corn Planting Progress.

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Crop Outlook and Farm Programs

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  1. Crop Outlook and Farm Programs Farm Management In-Service Ames, Iowa May 11, 2010 Chad Hart Assistant Professor/Grain Markets Specialist chart@iastate.edu 515-294-9911

  2. U.S. Corn Supply and Use Source: USDA

  3. U.S. Soybean Supply and Use Source: USDA

  4. Corn Planting Progress Source: USDA

  5. Soy Planting Progress Source: USDA

  6. World Corn Production Source: USDA

  7. Corn – Argentina & Brazil Source: USDA

  8. World Soybean Production Source: USDA

  9. Soybeans – Argentina & Brazil Source: USDA

  10. Hog Crush Margin The Crush Margin is the return after the pig, corn and soybean meal costs. Carcass weight: 200 pounds Pig price: 50% of 5 month out lean hog futures Corn: 10 bushels per pig Soybean meal: 150 pounds per pig Source: ISU Extension

  11. Cattle Crush Margin The Crush Margin is the return after the feeder steer and corn costs. Live weight: 1250 pounds Feeder weight: 750 pounds Corn: 50 bushels per head Source: ISU Extension

  12. Exchange Rates (Jan. 2003 = 1) Source: USDA, ERS

  13. Corn Export Sales Source: USDA, FAS

  14. 2009 U.S. Corn Exports Source: USDA, FAS

  15. Soybean Export Sales Source: USDA, FAS

  16. 2009 U.S. Soybean Exports Source: USDA, FAS

  17. Renewable Fuels Standard (RFS)

  18. Ethanol Margins Source: ISU, CARD

  19. Ethanol Pricing

  20. Ethanol Blending Advantage

  21. Crude Oil Prices Sources: EIA, NYMEX

  22. Corn

  23. Soy

  24. Projected 2009 Season-Average Corn Price

  25. Projected 2009 Season-Average Soy Price

  26. Projected 2010 Season-Average Corn Price

  27. Projected 2010 Season-Average Soy Price

  28. Iowa Corn Prices vs. Costs Right now, about a nickel under breakeven with USDA about 15 cents over breakeven with futures

  29. Iowa Soybean Prices vs. Costs Right now, 7 cents over breakeven with USDA 32 cents over breakeven with futures

  30. Using Latest USDA Corn Projections 2009 ACRE revenue guarantee = $635.61/acre $4.13/bu. * 171.0 bu./acre * 90% 2009 Proj. ACRE actual revenue = $655.20/acre $3.60/bu. * 182.0 bu./acre No payments under this scenario Would need price to fall to $3.49 to trigger payments Current futures (5/10/10) point to a season-average price of $3.53

  31. Using Latest USDA Soy Projections 2009 ACRE revenue guarantee = $456.32/acre $10.04/bu. * 50.5 bu./acre * 90% 2009 Proj. ACRE actual revenue = $479.75/acre $9.50/bu. * 50.5 bu./acre No payments under this scenario Would need price to fall to $9.03 to trigger payments Current futures (5/10/10) point to a season-average price of $9.46

  32. ACRE Set-up for 2010 Iowa Corn The 2009 yields and prices are USDA’s May 2010 estimates. Projected 2010 ACRE Revenue Guarantee = $589.44 (’09 = $635.61)

  33. ACRE Payment Rate Matrix ($/acre) Price Yield For Iowa corn in 2010, based on May 2010 price and yield projections

  34. ACRE Set-up for 2010 Iowa Soybeans The 2009 yields and prices are USDA’s May 2010 estimates. Projected 2010 ACRE Revenue Guarantee = $447.07 (’09 = $456.32)

  35. ACRE Payment Rate Matrix ($/acre) Price Yield For Iowa soybeans in 2010, based on May 2010 price and yield projections

  36. SURE Prices

  37. Thank you for your time!Any questions?My web site:http://www.econ.iastate.edu/faculty/hart/Iowa Farm Outlook:http://www.econ.iastate.edu/outreach/agriculture/periodicals/ifo/Ag Decision Maker:http://www.extension.iastate.edu/agdm/

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