Post Carbon Cities: Planning for Energy and Climate Uncertainty

1. Post Carbon Cities:Planning for Energy and Climate Uncertainty Daniel Lerch, Program Director 8 May 2009 • Gaining Ground Summit, Calgary

2. Post Carbon Cities guidebook The first major guidebook for local gov’t on peak oil and global warming. • What are the challenges? • Why should cities and towns act? • What have some cities already done? • What can local governments usefully do? 113 pages, $30.00 2nd printing May 2008 www.postcarboncities.net

3. I. What’s happening? I. What’s happening? Demand is RISING... ...but Supply is LEVELLING, and will soon fall. • Developing world is rapidly industrializing (China, India)‏ • Western world demand growth • The “easy oil” is gone • Logistical (financial) limits to what can ultimately be produced The fundamental factors of oil supply and demand are changing.

4. I. What’s happening? July 10, 2008: $147/barrel 2008: $50-$60/barrel? The old assumptions no longer fit... May 2009: >$55/barrel 2008 U.S. Energy Information Administration, Annual Energy Overview 2006, p.64

5. I. What’s happening? ...which means we can no longer rely on the usual ‘experts'... http://money.cnn.com/2007/08/07/news/economy/cheap_oil/index.htm

6. I. What’s happening? ...but fortunately, more and more leaders do see the problems ahead. http://www.rigzone.com/news/article.asp?a_id=53040

7. I. What’s happening? II. The oil situation “Plateau” ? “Peak” ? Does it matter? A Summary of the Oil Situation(in four points)

8. II. The oil situation 1a. SUPPLY CONSTRAINTS: Conventional Oil

9. II. The oil situation Unconventional Oil Conventional Oil 1b. SUPPLY CONSTRAINTS: Unconventional oil Gap between ‘Business-As-Usual Demand‘and projected Supply

10. II. The oil situation 2. DEMAND CONSTRAINTS: West keeps growing,East keeps modernizing http://uk.reuters.com/article/oilRpt/idUKL139687720080413 (cc) Proggie/Flickr

11. II. The oil situation “Oil makes it possible to transport food to the ...megacities of the world. “Oil also provides the plastics and chemicals that are the bricks and mortar of contemporary civilization...” –Daniel Yergin, The Prize: The Epic Quest for Oil, Money, and Power. 1991. Image credits clockwise from upper left: Tony Tremblay (istock), caribb (cc), sillydog (cc), IRRI Images (cc) 3. OVERDEPENDENCE

12. II. The oil situation 4. NO GOOD SUBSTITUTES There is nothing of comparable versatility and quantity ready to replace oil. HYDROGEN BIOFUELS COAL NUCLEAR

13. III. The problem society faces III. The problem society faces What does this mean for the decisions we make?(as households, businesses, governments): Higher Oil Prices+ Oil Price / Supply Volatility Declining Supply + Rising Demand=

14. III. The problem society faces This complicates our assumptionsthat oil will continue to be... ...available... ...and affordable.

15. III. The problem society faces What does this mean for government decision-makers?: Peaking of World Oil Production: Impacts, Mitigation and Risk Management Prepared for the U.S. Department of Energyby Robert Hirsch, SAIC, et al, 2005 • “Timely, aggressive mitigation...” • At least “a decade of intense, expensive effort” • Intervention by governments necessary because the economic & social implications “would otherwise be chaotic”

16. III. The problem society faces Peak oil... when? OCTOBER 2007, Post Carbon Cities:“...we seem to be facing an undulating plateau of world oil production from 2007 onward, with permanent decline likely underway by 2010.” OCTOBER 2008, Richard Heinberg’s blog:“Lack of investment in new production projects, plus ongoing depletion and rising decline rates, probably ensure that we’ve now seen the all-time peak. It was in July 2008.” http://postcarbon.org/wither_oil_prices

17. IV. The problem for cities IV. The problem for cities Why is this a problem at the local level?(in three points)

18. IV. The problem for cities 2006 - 2007:“…higher fuel prices and energy costs; higher transportation costs…” 1. Price volatility of goods The Oregonian, 25 January 2008 Knoxville News Sentinel, 6 September 2006

19. IV. The problem for cities “... reported shortages.” “...airport ran out of fuel...” “...factories shut down...” 2. Potential for shortages and emergencies The New York Times, 1 September 2005 The Guardian, 12 June 2008

20. IV. The problem for cities 3. Long-term economic shifts • How will the global economy adjust? (global trade flows) • How will this impact regional and local economies? (relative advantage; provisioning systems)

21. IV. The problem for cities How can cities... • set meaningful budgets • make long-range land use and transportation plans • serve residents and the local business community ...with such uncertainty surrounding the most important material to our global, regional and local economies? “ Energy Uncertainty ”

22. V. What’s happening? V. What’s happening? Some of the fundamental factors that influence the global climate are changing. GHG concentrations are up dramatically, and RISING. The average global temperature is rising, with uncertain consequences. ? ? • Prior and continuning industrialization. • 16 years since Earth Summit, little to show for it. • Local effects? Economic effects? • Trigger points? Feedback loops?

23. V. What’s happening? CAUSES: The debate is over... “For us, as a company, the scientific debate about climate change is over. The debate now is about what we can do about it.”- Jeroen van der Veer, Chief Executive, Shell http://www.shell.com/home/content/responsible_energy

24. V. What’s happening? URGENCY: ...changes are already happening...

25. V. What’s happening? 550 ppm 550 GOAL:Avoid 2°C above 1990 levels 500 450 ppm 450 * ~387 ppm NOW 400 350ppm URGENCY: ...and we have less than 8 years to get emissions in decline.

26. VI. Why is this a problem for cities? VI. Why is this a problem for cities? Economic, social, environmental... • Dependency • Short-term challenges • Long-term challenges “ Climate Uncertainty ”

27. Why is this a problem for cities? VI. Why is this a problem for cities? The “Climate-Peak Convergence” Why is this a problem at the local level? GLOBAL WARMING PEAK OIL WHAT’S THE ISSUE? WHAT’S THE ISSUE? 1. Supply Constraints 2. Demand Constraints 3. Overdependence 4. No Substitutes 1. We know that some effects are inevitable in the short term. Economic, social, environmental... 2. We don’t know exactly how the global ecosystem will change in the long term. • Dependency WHY IS THIS A PROBLEM? WHY IS THIS A PROBLEM? • Short-term challenges • Price volatility of goods • Dependence on global ecosystem • Long-term challenges • Potential for emergencies(unexpected price changes, occasional shortages)‏ • Short-term challenges(dealing with first effects)‏ • Long-term challenges(how will global, regional and local economies respond? how can municipalities budget and plan?)‏ • Long-term challenges(long-term changes to climates and economies)‏ “ Climate Uncertainty ” “ Energy and Climate Uncertainty ”

29. VII. What are cities already doing? VII. What are cities already doing?

30. VII. What are cities already doing?

31. VII. What are cities already doing? Official Statement Internal Report Marrickville, NSWChapel Hill, N.C.Nottigham, U.K. Burnaby, B.C. Darebin, Vc.Maribyrnong, Vic.

32. VII. What are cities already doing? Resolution which creates... ...a Task Force. Portland, Ore.Oakland, Calif.Bloomington, Ind. San Francisco, Calif.Austin, Tex.Brisbane, QLD Spokane, Wash.Bristol, U.K.Alachua Cty., Fla Bellingham, Wash.Lawrence, Kan.Westerly, R.I.

33. VII. What are cities already doing? Portland (Ore.) Peak Oil Task Force • 12 members vetted by City Council • Split up into four subgroups: • In 6 months, meetings with over 80 stakeholders Land Use / Transportation Economy Public and Social Services Food & Agriculture

34. VII. What are cities already doing?

35. VII. What are cities already doing? “Descending the Oil Peak: Navigating the Transition from Oil and Natural Gas,” Portland (Oregon) Peak Oil Task Force, March 2007; online at www.portlandonline.com/osd.

36. VII. What are cities already doing? Land Use / Transportation Economy Public and Social Services Food &Agriculture Impacts and Vulnerabilities Two Pillars and 11 Recommendations ReduceExposure StrengthenCommunity

37. VII. What are cities already doing? 1. Reduce total oil and natural gas consumption... by 50 percent over the next 25 years. 2, 3. Educate and engage the public and leadersInform citizens about peak oil and foster community and community-based solutions. Educate and engage business, government and community leaders to initiate policy change. Recommendations of the Portland Peak Oil Task Force Reduce Exposure Strengthen Community

38. VII. What are cities already doing? Land use and transportation connection:Support land use patterns that reduce transportation needs... (cc) dmkphotography / Flickr 5, 6. Transportation infrastructure and choices:Design infrastructure to promote transportation options and facilitate efficient movement of freight... Reduce Exposure Strengthen Community

39. VII. What are cities already doing? 7. Energy-efficient buildings: Expand building energy-efficiency programs and incentives for all new and existing structures. 8. Farmland and food:Preserve farmland and expand local food production and processing. 9. The Green Economy:Identify and promote sustainable business opportunities. Reduce Exposure Strengthen Community

40. VII. What are cities already doing? 10. Social safety net:Redesign the safety net and protect vulnerable and marginalized populations. 11. Emergency Planning:Prepare emergency plans for sudden and severe shortages. Andrew Zahn, www.poex.org Reduce Exposure Strengthen Community

41. VII. What are cities already doing? What had Portland BEEN doing? • Most green buildings in US (LEED) • Highest per capita hybrid auto ownership in US • Transit ridership up 85% • Bike trips over bridges quintupled • Vehicle miles traveled decreased 7% per capita • Gasoline sales down 13% per capita • Household energy down 5% per capita • City energy-efficiency projects saving $2.6M/yr • Recycling rate more than tripled Portland Office of Sustainable Development

42. VII. What are cities already doing? Portland 2010 Goal: 10% below 1990 levels 2032 Goal: 50% reduction in fossil fuels Emissions level required to avoid severe climate disruption Portland Office of Sustainable Development

43. VIII. Getting to the post carbon city The goal: The post carbon city is a city on a path of resiliencefor a world of energy & climate uncertainty. How do we get there?

44. VIII. Getting to the post carbon city The “Five Long-term Principles”

45. VIII. Getting to the post carbon city 1. Deal with transportation and land use (or you may as well stop now).

46. VIII. Getting to the post carbon city 1. Deal with transportation and land use (or you may as well stop now).continued...

47. VIII. Getting to the post carbon city Zero-energy housing, Germany 2. Tackle private energy consumption.

48. VIII. Getting to the post carbon city 3. Attack the problems piece-by-piece and from many angles.

49. VIII. Getting to the post carbon city 4. Plan for fundamental changes... andmake fundamental changes happen. (cc) Robert Whitlock / flickr (cc) citizenhelder / flickr

50. VIII. Getting to the post carbon city 5. Build a sense of community(build social resilience).