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Electric Power Flows & Smart Grids in the Context of the Overall Energy Policy

Electric Power Flows & Smart Grids in the Context of the Overall Energy Policy. Ronnie Belmans William D’haeseleer K.U.Leuven Energy Institute. Overall Energy Policy. Global Energy Challenges. Climate Change. Worsening climate change and emissions…. 1912. 2000. Global Energy Challenges.

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Electric Power Flows & Smart Grids in the Context of the Overall Energy Policy

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  1. Electric Power Flows & Smart Gridsin the Context of the Overall Energy Policy Ronnie Belmans William D’haeseleer K.U.Leuven Energy Institute

  2. Overall Energy Policy

  3. Global Energy Challenges • Climate Change

  4. Worsening climate change and emissions… 1912 2000

  5. Global Energy Challenges • Climate Change • Security of Supply

  6. Jan 01 2006 & 2009 Increasing dependence on imported oil and other fossil fuels…

  7. Global Energy Challenges • Climate Change • Security of Supply • Rising Energy Costs & Competitiveness

  8. $ € Rising energy costs and falling competitiveness

  9. EU Energy Policy Primary Energy Sources Regulation of Monopolies Reliability and Quality Innovation and Competitiveness Internal Market Security of Supply Capacity Low Prices And Efficiency Lisbon Agenda Environment Climate Change Kyoto and Post-Kyoto Nature Preservation

  10. EU 20-20-20 targetsby 2020 100% -20% -20% +20% 8,5% Reduction of greenhouse gases Energy consumption, Efficiency increase Share of renewable energy

  11. Climate Change Copenhagen has not lived up to the promises Only “intentional declaration” to keep T at max 2°C above pre-industrial levels

  12. Climate Change 2°C above pre-industrial levels means: max 450 ppm CO2-eq in atmosphere currently at ~ 280 ppm EU keeps -20% instead of -30%

  13. Greenhouse gas emissionsSectorial Source: European Environment agency

  14. Thursday, December 10, 2009 – RMAH-KMKG Brussels Climate Change Annual energy related CO2 worldwide emissions 450 ppm scenario IEA WEO 2009

  15. Climate Change To limit temperature increase to 2°C above pre-industrial level

  16. GHG Target: -20% compared to 1990 A shared effort between sectors and MS -14% compared to 2005 EU ETS -21% compared to 2005 Non ETS sectors -10% compared to 2005 27 Member State targets, stretching from -20% to +20%

  17. EU Energy Mix

  18. EU ETSa predictable EU-wide cap beyond 2020 Starting point: 1974 Mt in 2013 Gradient: -1.74% 2083 Mt/yr 1720 Mt -20% 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024

  19. Thursday, December 10, 2009 – RMAH-KMKG Brussels Envisioned CO2 reductions possible if: - all options are considered - clear policy decisions / right framework / permits! - drastic increase energy R&D efforts

  20. Thursday, December 10, 2009 – RMAH-KMKG Brussels Need fertile ground for energy revolution • EU Strategic Energy Technology plan • 2020 targets • 2050 vision • Must take decisions now to turn ocean liner

  21. Thursday, December 10, 2009 – RMAH-KMKG Brussels Wedges approach Ref: Pacala & Socolow Science 2004

  22. Thursday, December 10, 2009 – RMAH-KMKG Brussels Wedges approach Ref: Socolow

  23. Thursday, December 10, 2009 – RMAH-KMKG Brussels IEA WEO 2008- technologies 550 450

  24. Thursday, December 10, 2009 – RMAH-KMKG Brussels IEA WEO 2009

  25. Part of the answer for • Climate Change • “may be” • renewable energies

  26. 2.2% 9.4% 5% 15.4% 5.8% 17.1% 3.1% 6.9% 8.7% 10.3% 5.2% 2.9% 34.9% 15% 0.9% 4.3% 0% 2.4% 23.3% 7.2% 20.5% 16.5% 16% 6.7% 28.5% 38.9% 1.3% EU-27 efforts in Renewables: RES share in 2005 BE BG CZ(*) DK(*) DE EE(*) IE EL ES FR IT CY LV LT LU HU MT NL AT PL PT RO(*) SI SK FI SE(*) UK RES share in 2005 (*) Figure adjusted by early starter bonus

  27. 2.2% 5.5% 5.3% 9.4% 5.5% 1.1% 6.1% 5.5% 2.6% 17.0% 5.5% 9.1% 5.8% 5.5% 6.7% 18% 5.5% 2.4% 3.1% 5.5% 7.4% 6.9% 5.5% 5.6% 8.7% 5.5% 5.8% 10.3% 5.5% 7.2% 5.2% 5.5% 6.3% 2.9% 5.5% 4.6% 34.9% 5.5% 1.6% 15% 5.5% 2.5% 0.9% 5.5% 4.6% 4.3% 5.5% 3.2% 0% 5.5% 4.5% 2.4% 5.5% 6.1% 23.3% 5.5% 5.2% 7.2% 5.5% 2.3% 20.5% 5.5% 5% 17.8% 5.5% 2% 16% 5.5% 3.5% 6.7% 5.5% 1.8 % 28.5% 5.5% 4% 39.8% 5.5% 5.6% 1.3% 5.5% 8.2% EU-27 efforts in Renewables: Early starter adjustment & cap BE BG CZ DK DE EE IE EL ES FR IT CY LV LT LU HU MT NL AT PL PT RO SI SK FI SE UK 1.5 RES share in 2005 7.5% 1.5 Flat rateincrease of 5.5% Additional effort based on GDP per capita Figures adjusted byearly starter bonus and cap 0.7 4.7% EU-27

  28. 13% 16% 13% 30% 18% 25% 16% 18% 20% 23% 17% 13% 42% 23% 11% 13% 10% 14% 34% 15% 31% 24% 25% 14% 38% 49% 15% EU-27 efforts in Renewables BE BG CZ DK DE EE IE EL ES FR IT CY LV LT LU HU MT NL AT PL PT RO SI SK FI SE UK RES share in 2020

  29. Renewables & Distributed Generation

  30. Thursday, December 10, 2009 – RMAH-KMKG Brussels CO2 free by 2030?

  31. Thursday, December 10, 2009 – RMAH-KMKG Brussels CO2 free by 2030? • Simplistic approaches misleading and lead to loss of credibility • Must think in terms of energy fluxes (“power flows”) not energy “packages” Get energy at right place at right time • Must optimize full integrated system with full dynamic characteristics

  32. Thursday, December 10, 2009 – RMAH-KMKG Brussels For Electricity system Energy policy and actions must be redefined in terms of power flows and controllability Dynamic behavior, flexibility of European generation system, globally and locally  intelligent networks / smart grids …

  33. EU 2050

  34. Energy losses Quadrillion Btu in US DOE: Smart Grid System Report, July 2009

  35. Electricity consumption Eurelectric: The role of electricity 2007 Importance of Energy Efficiency

  36. Energy Efficiency – CO2 abatement Source: The McKinsey Quarterly 2007 Number 1

  37. Energy Efficiency: Residential/ Tertiary Eurelectric: The role of electricity 2007 • Fiscal incentives • Energy Performance of Buildings Directive

  38. Reaching the targets • Reducingbarriers • Effective and costefficient support • RES-E support • CO2mitigation (EU ETS) • Fiscal incentives • Industrystandards • Energy Performance of Buildings Directive

  39. Electric Power Flows & Smart Grids Ronnie Belmans

  40. Agenda • Current situation • Transition towards a SmartGrid • What value is created? • Helping integration of renewables towards a CO2-lean society • Consumer engagement • Long term job growth Ronnie Belmans (ronnie.belmans@esat.kuleuven.be)

  41. Current European power system • 430 million people served • 2500 TWh used • 560 GW installed capacity @ 500€/kW = 280G€ • 230.000 km HV network @ 0.4M€/km = 90G€ • Approx. 5.000.000 km MV+LV network • 1500€ investment per EU citizen • Largest man-made system • 430 million people served • 2602 TWh used (+1.1% 2007) • 560 GW installed capacity @ 500€/kW = 280G€ • 230.000 km HV network @ 0.4M€/km = 90G€ • Approx. 5.000.000 km MV+LV network • 1500€ investment per EU citizen • Largest man-made system 2007 2008 Ronnie Belmans (ronnie.belmans@esat.kuleuven.be) Data provided by UCTE

  42. New grid challengesOverview • Future of energy demand • Generation paradigm shift • Ageing assets • Markets and regulation Ronnie Belmans (ronnie.belmans@esat.kuleuven.be)

  43. New grid challenges1. Future of electricity demand • Rise of consumption at 2% a year • 1250 TWh/year extra by 2030 • Dependence on imported fuels? • Plug-in Hybrid Electric Vehicles? Ronnie Belmans (ronnie.belmans@esat.kuleuven.be)

  44. New grid challenges 2. New generation paradigm • Current grid = hierarchical • One-way pipeline • Source has no realtime info on termination points • Peak demand reserve => inefficient use of grid Generation G G Transmission Supply Traditional one-way supply system Distribution Demand Ronnie Belmans (ronnie.belmans@esat.kuleuven.be)

  45. New grid challenges 2. New generation paradigm • Increasing wind generation & CHP units in Denmark Ronnie Belmans (ronnie.belmans@esat.kuleuven.be)

  46. New grid challenges 2. New generation paradigm • Importance of wind forecasting • Wind speed change of 1 m/s = variation of 320MW on a capacity of +-2400MW. • Control systems needed to avoid excessivebackup capacity “Fresh breeze” means somewhere between 200 and 1,600 MW Ronnie Belmans (ronnie.belmans@esat.kuleuven.be)

  47. New grid challenges 2. New generation paradigm • Offshore wind farm projects in Belgium • Why offshore? • Higher average wind speed • Less opposition • Thorntonbank • 27-30km offshore • Planning • 2007-2009: 6 turbines, totalling 30 MW • 2009-2011: adding 24 turbines and offshore transformer • 2012-2013: adding 24 turbines and 2nd 150kV cable • Bank Zonder Naam • 35km offshore • Construction planned for 2010-2011 Ronnie Belmans (ronnie.belmans@esat.kuleuven.be)

  48. New grid challenges • Thorntonbank 63 m 184 m 77 m 44 m Ronnie Belmans (ronnie.belmans@esat.kuleuven.be)

  49. New grid challenges • Costal nodes 150kV • Zeebrugge 477MVA • Slijkens 358MVA • Koksijde 270MVA • Slijkens – Koksijde • Underground • 33km • 240MVA • May 2006 Ronnie Belmans (ronnie.belmans@esat.kuleuven.be)

  50. Technical miracles of the 20th century • Electrification • Automobile • Airplane • Safe and Abundant Water • Electronics • Radio and Television • Agricultural Mechanization • Computers • Telephone • Air Conditioning and Refrigeration • Interstate Highways • Space Exploration • Internet • Imaging Technologies • Household Appliances • Health Technologies • Petroleum and Gas Technologies • Laser and Fiber Optics • Nuclear Technologies • High Performance Materials Still… new generation paradigms & ageing assets pose a serious challenge… (Source: National Academy of Engineering) Ronnie Belmans (ronnie.belmans@esat.kuleuven.be)

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