Social Sciences, Societal Impacts, & Weather

1. Social Sciences, Societal Impacts, & Weather ULW 2011 Julie L. Demuth, NCAR Societal Impacts Program

2. About me • School • BS and MS in meteorology • Pursuing my PhD in communication • Career path • From remote sensing of hurricanes (@ CSU), to policy (@ DC), to hospice (almost), to my love … social science research of weather with the NCAR Societal Impacts Program • I love… • My job, hiking and backpacking, animals, IPA and tripel beers, Italian red wine, snowshoeing, music, scotch, sunshine, mountains, clouds, sparking water, cappuccinos and coffee, painting, pizza, bouldering, the number 422, laughing, weather, my family and friends, hospice, … and so much more!

3. What questions do you have?

4. Questions you might/do ask • Who uses what weather information from which sources? • Do they understand it? How do they interpret it? • How can information be changed to better meet users’ needs? • What decisions do people make based on this info? • Do they know what to do? Do they have the ability to respond? Why do they respond the ways they do? • Why don’t people do what they’re “supposed” to do? How do we get people to respond “correctly”?

5. Societal Impacts & Social Science

6. Societal impacts • Societal – of or pertaining to the life, welfare, and relations of human beings • Impact – the effect of one thing on another • Societal impact of weather– the effect of weather on human life, welfare, and relations • Economic impact (crop loss) • Health impacts (heat stroke) • Emotional impact (post-tornado trauma, stress, anxiety)

7. Social sciences • The study and understanding of human cognitionand behavior … uses the scientific process! • Social scientists can have theories and concepts but (unlike physical parameters) they constantly change … humans and society are never static! vs.

8. Social science disciplines • “Social sciences” is an umbrella termreferring to many fields … parallel is “natural sciences” • Anthropology • Human geography • Communication • Psychology • Political science • Economics • Education • Sociology

9. Social scientists’ methods Qualitative and quantitative approaches • Interviews (structured, semi-structured) • Surveys • Focus groups • Content analysis • Direct observation • Participatory activities

10. How likely do you think flash flooding is to occur in Boulder in the next year? Ex: Data collection …in the next 24 hours if a flash flood warning is issued for Boulder?

11. Ex: Societal impacts • Number of injuries, deaths • Damage to homes, businesses, crops, land, etc. • Economic costs of damaged property, lost revenue from tourism, etc.

12. Ex. social sciences • What vulnerability characteristics influence people’s ability to get to safety? • How do the culture, norms, or common practices of an area influence people’s responses? Anthropology Sociology Geography

13. Ex. social sciences • How do people use social media to get information during a weather event? • How do forecasters’ knowledge and perceptions of their audiences influence the content of their warnings? Communication, sociology, social psychology

14. Ex. social sciences • How does one’s perception of place influence how they perceive a threat? Geography, communication

15. Some of “my” (Collaborative) Research

16. Communication • Communication practice vs. communication science • (Some) types of communication science • Interpersonal communication • Organizational communication • Mass communication • Risk communication • Crisis communication Source Message Channel Receiver S2 M2 R2 S4 M4 C2 R4 S1 M1 C4 R1 S3 M3 C1 R3 C3

17. Sources, messages, channels • So advanced, it’s simple… • Hurricanes in Miami area • NHC forecasters, Miami forecasters, media, public officials • Observations and interviews • Product generation& dissemination • Perceptions of partners and public

18. Risk communication and responses • Extended parallel processing model • Risk information seeking & processing model

19. Mental models & risk communication • Mental models – mental representations of systems or processes; how people understand the world • MM+ risk communication approach • What do people know? What do they need to know? • Compare expert model with lay model; develop risk communication where gaps exist • Flash floods in Boulder • Forecasters, local public officials, local media, public

20. Uses, perceptions, preferences • NWS-funded grant to improve point-and-click • Contact info from 88,000+ people • Surveyed 5000+ in fall

21. WAS*IS • WAS*IS is acapacity-buildingeffort • Builds an interdisciplinary community of people passionate about social science and meteorology • Promotes new ways of thinking about issues that fall at the interface of meteorology and society • Workshops provide a forum to discuss these issues • WAS*IS isnota research program • Can inspire collaborations • Can spur research ideas

22. Some Final Thoughts

23. AP news story morning of April 16 • “Forecasters warned of approaching danger as much as 3 days earlier, but the winds up to 80 mph and repeated lightning strikes cut a path of destruction across a region so accustomed to violent weather that many people ignored the risk — or slept through it.” Is this true? To what extent? What other variables are at play?

24. We make lots of assumptions • That people • …are complacent • …ignore threats due to false alarms • …feel overwarned • …have an “ideal” warning lead-time • …should be highly literate about weather information • These are empirical questions and they vary based on the weather situation!

25. Bounds of social science • Social sciences are not about controlling behavior • There is no universally “correct” behavior • Decisions are contextual … and weather sometimes (oftentimes?) isn’t the main factor! • Humans are like the atmosphere… • …they’re both • non-linear, dynamic, and chaotic!

26. Resources! • Julie Demuth (jdemuth@ucar.edu) • www.sip.ucar.edu • Weather and Society Watch newsletter • Societal impacts discussion board • WAS*IS information