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Seasonal Climate Forecast June – August 2014 (Issued: May 21, 2014)

Seasonal Climate Forecast June – August 2014 (Issued: May 21, 2014). This Product is Published by the Oregon Department of Agriculture (ODA), in Cooperation with the Oregon Department of Forestry (ODF). Contact: ODF Meteorologist Pete Parsons at 503-945-7448 pparsons@odf.state.or.us

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Seasonal Climate Forecast June – August 2014 (Issued: May 21, 2014)

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  1. Seasonal Climate ForecastJune – August 2014(Issued: May 21, 2014) This Product is Published by the Oregon Department of Agriculture (ODA), in Cooperation with the Oregon Department of Forestry (ODF). Contact: ODF Meteorologist Pete Parsons at 503-945-7448 pparsons@odf.state.or.us Get related Seasonal Climate Forecast information at http://cms.oregon.gov/ODA/NRD/Pages/weather.aspx

  2. Forecast Method Notes… • Analog years were obtained by tracking and comparing a variety of indices over the past several years (see Forecasting Methods). Priority was given to years with sea-surface temperatures (SSTs) most closely matching the current SSTs in the equatorial Pacific Ocean. • Analog years in the “Cool Phase” of the Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO) have been verifying much better than years in the “Warm Phase,” which intuitively makes sense, because we are currently in the “Cool Phase” of the PDO. • 2009 replaced 1957 as one of the top analog years used to create this month’s forecast. The other analog years (1963 & 1968) remained unchanged.

  3. El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO)Current Status and Forecast • ENSO-neutral (average) conditions continue across the equatorial Pacific Ocean, but significant warming of sea-surface temperatures (SSTs) is occurring across the tropical Pacific Ocean. SSTs are now above average. • The Climate Prediction Center (CPC) is forecasting the development of El Niño (warm conditions)this summer. • The “analog years” used in this forecast support the development of a “moderate strength” El Niño this coming autumn and winter. http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/lanina/enso_evolution-status-fcsts-web.pdf

  4. Tropical Pacific OceanAnimated (in PowerPoint only) SSTs (top) / Anomalies (bottom) Courtesy: http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/enso_update/sstanim.shtml

  5. Tropical Pacific OceanSSTs have warmed to above average, mainly west and east Courtesy: http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/enso_update/sstweek_c.gif

  6. ENSO Indices (2008-09;1967-68; 1962-63) La Niña ENSO-Neutral El Niño

  7. ENSO Indices (2008-09;1967-68; 1962-63) El Niño conditions developed, by the subsequent autumn, in each of the top 3 analog years. El Niño ENSO-Neutral La Niña La Niña conditions developed, during the winter, in 1 of the top 3 analog years.

  8. ENSO Predictive ModelsComputer models favor El Niño development this summer Model forecasts favor ENSO-neutral conditions through spring 2014; followed by El Niño development. El Niño ENSO-neutral La Niña Courtesy: http://iri.columbia.edu/climate/ENSO/currentinfo/SST_table.html

  9. June 2014 Forecast Temperatures Precipitation • No significant departures from average temperatures were indicated by the top analog years. • Rainfall slightly below average west and slightly above average east.

  10. July 2014 Forecast Temperatures Precipitation • Wide ranging temperatures during analog years lowers forecast confidence. Extremes in either direction are possible. • Drier than average conditions likely. Since July is typically a “dry” month, large negative precipitation departures are not possible.

  11. August 2014 Forecast Temperatures Precipitation • Once again, the analog years had enough variation of weather conditions to significantly lower forecast confidence. • Temperatures favoring slightly cooler than average. • Near to above average precipitation likely.

  12. June – August 2014 Forecast Temperatures Precipitation • A slight tendency for a cooler and wetter than average August skews the 3-month temperature and precipitation forecast graphics to cool and damp, but forecast confidence is low. • There is no clear signal, in either direction, from average conditions.

  13. Some Helpful Resources • CPC Official US Three-Month Forecasts (Graphics): http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/long_range/seasonal.php?lead=01 • CPC US 30-Day & 90-Day Forecasts (Discussions): http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/long_range/fxus07.html • CPC Weekly & Monthly ENSO Discussions: http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/enso_advisory • Australian Government Weekly Tropical Climate Note: http://www.bom.gov.au/climate/tropnote/tropnote.shtml • Australian Government ENSO Wrap-Up: http://www.bom.gov.au/climate/enso • IRI ENSO Quick Look: http://portal.iri.columbia.edu/portal/server.pt?open=512&objID=945&mode=2 • NRCS Western Snowpack Data & Water Supply Forecast: http://www.wcc.nrcs.usda.gov/cgibin/westsnowsummary.pl

  14. Updated Monthly(around the 20th) Your Feedback is Welcome Contact: Pete Parsons, ODF Meteorologist 503-945-7448 pparsons@odf.state.or.us ODA Production support from Diana Walker and Andy Zimmerman

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