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Enhancing Seasonal Forecast Prediction Accuracy using HadGEM3H N216L85O Model with Lagged Method

Learn about improving operational seasonal forecasts for DJF NAO circulation using the HadGEM3H N216L85O model with initial conditions from atmospheric analyses and NEMOVAR. Explore correlation significance, prediction methods, and the need for standardized verification. Dive into monitoring, verification processes, and statistical algorithms for enhanced forecast reliability.

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Enhancing Seasonal Forecast Prediction Accuracy using HadGEM3H N216L85O Model with Lagged Method

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  1. Wrap-up

  2. Predicting atmospheric circulation DJF NAO Met Office operational seasonal forecasts with HadGEM3H N216L85O(0.25) with initial conditions from operational atmospheric analyses and NEMOVAR, 24 members, start date around the 1st of November (lagged method). Winter NAO correlation significant at the 98% confidence level. A. Scaife (Met Office)

  3. Predicting atmospheric circulation DJF NAO seasonal forecasts using a multiple linear regression method (one-year-out crossvalidation) with the September sea-ice concentration over the Barents-Kara sea and the October snow cover over northern Siberia (one month lead time). r=0.79 J. García-Serrano (IPSL)

  4. Wrap-up • LRF training  3 blocks: • Monitoring and verification • Need of standarizedverification of prob. consensusoutlook • Need of monitoringinfoforverification

  5. Example verification seasonal forecasts from GCMs: RPSS

  6. Reliability diagrams for the first 10 years of PRESAO (seasonal rainfall forecasts Jul-Sept) Over-forecasting in normal category Weaksharpness Under-forecasting in below normal category

  7. Wrap-up • LRF training  3 blocks: • Monitoring and verification • Need of standarizedverification of prob. consensusoutlook • Need of monitoringinfoforverification • Availableinformationsources • Models: differentskill Everymodelused has tobeevaluated/verified • Systematicapproachtothesources of predictability  empiricalalgorithms • Methods, algorithms and projects • Roomforstatisticalalgorithms/downscaling • Need of updatedinfoonrelevantprojects/initiatives

  8. Way forward • Joint LRF training (MedCOF, SEECOF, PRESANORD)? • Once a yearrotating N-S, E-W? • Themesforthenext LRF training session? • Lectures/practicalsessions?

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