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E. C. Meyers, G. M. McFarquhar , B. F. Jewett, S. W. Nesbitt

Vertical Velocity and Microphysical Distributions Related to the Rapid Intensification of Hurricane Dennis (2005). S. W. N. E. E. C. Meyers, G. M. McFarquhar , B. F. Jewett, S. W. Nesbitt University of Illinois at Urbana-Champaign 11 May 2010.

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E. C. Meyers, G. M. McFarquhar , B. F. Jewett, S. W. Nesbitt

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  1. Vertical Velocity and Microphysical Distributions Related to the Rapid Intensification of Hurricane Dennis (2005) S W N E E. C. Meyers, G. M. McFarquhar, B. F. Jewett, S. W. Nesbitt University of Illinois at Urbana-Champaign 11 May 2010 Image Science and Analysis Laboratory, NASA-Johnson Space Center. "The Gateway to Astronaut Photography of Earth.” http://eol.jsc.nasa.gov/scripts/sseop/photo.pl?mission=ISS011&roll=E&frame=10221

  2. S W N E Image Science and Analysis Laboratory, NASA-Johnson Space Center. "The Gateway to Astronaut Photography of Earth.” http://eol.jsc.nasa.gov/scripts/sseop/photo.pl?mission=ISS011&roll=E&frame=10216

  3. Guiding Questions • How do such isolated, inner-core, most-intensevertical velocities (i.e., convective bursts) cause and/or respond to rapid intensification (RI) of tropical cyclones?

  4. Guiding Questions • How do such isolated, inner-core, most-intensevertical velocities (i.e., convective bursts) cause and/or respond to rapid intensification (RI) of tropical cyclones? • What statistics can be gathered from a high-resolution simulation regarding convective bursts’ distributions, magnitudes, verticalstructures, durations, proximities to the vortex center, and trends as precursors to RI?

  5. Motivation • Limited understanding of how RI may relate to convective bursts • 3-D structure • Timing • Distributions of latent heat

  6. Motivation • Limited understanding of how RI may relate to convective bursts • 3-D structure • Timing • Distributions of latent heat • Need to statistically characterize the morphology of these isolated, intense vertical velocities and associated microphysics within observational voids

  7. WRF Configuration Horizontal… d01 d02 d03 784 d04 736 1-km 3-km 9-km 27-km

  8. WRF Configuration Vertical…

  9. Dennis Track 00Z 08 July 2005 00Z 07 July 2005 00Z 06 July 2005

  10. Intensity * *10 min

  11. Intensity * -19 hPa (6 h)-1 *10 min

  12. Intensity * *10 min

  13. +36 kts (6 h)-1 * * *10 min

  14. Convective Bursts? [dBZ] • Guimond et al. (2010, JAS) • Are column-confined, averaged, and low-to-mid-level interpretations valid? [m s-1] 14:20Z-14:32Z 09 July 2005 14:45Z-15:03Z 09 July 2005

  15. 2-min 10-min

  16. 2-min 10-min

  17. 9 hours before RI Column Max Reflectivity CFAD s 9 hours during RI

  18. 9 hours before RI CFAD Difference during – before RI 9 hours during RI

  19. hourly 99.9th percentile w [m s-1]

  20. CONCLUSIONS • Interpretation of RI depends on: • Interval examined • ∆pmin or ∆|v10-m, max| perspective • Discrete vertical level statistics provide better identification of convective bursts than column averages or thresholds • Outlier (e.g., 99.9th percentile) w better indicators of RI than averages • Precursor to RI at upper levels (e.g., 14 km) • Continual broadening and convergence toward TC center

  21. CONCLUSIONS, CONT’D • Outlier (e.g., 99.9th percentile) w at lower levels (e.g., 6 km), however, increase only after onset of and during RI • Manifested as an increase in latent heating • Precursor w have unnoticeable impact on latent heating • Vertical structure • Thresholds for definition • Implications of these upper-level, rapidly accelerating updrafts for RI?

  22. Acknowledgements • AMS Graduate Fellowship, Earth Science Div. of the Science Mission Directorate • NASA Headquarters under the NESSF Program • NASA Hurricane Science Program – Grant NNX09AB82G • NOAA/GFDL • WRF Modeling Community • TeraGrid • Seemingly endless list of students, staff, and faculty at the University of Illinois at Urbana-Champaign and beyond THANK YOU! Boston.com “Hurricanes, as seen from orbit” http://www.boston.com/bigpicture/2008/09/hurricanes_as_seen_from_orbit.html

  23. *LH, Abe

  24. < -80

  25. Precursor to RI? Colin et al. (2009, Nature Geosci.)

  26. > 15 ≤ 5 > 3 *history interval accumulation

  27. < -10 ≤ 0 > -2 *instantaneous, @ output

  28. ≤ 0 > -60 < -540 *instantaneous, @ output

  29. > 1.0 < 5.0 > 30.0 < 40.0

  30. 2030Z7th

  31. 2036Z7th

  32. 2042Z7th

  33. 2048Z7th

  34. 2054Z7th

  35. 2100Z7th

  36. Observed onset of RI

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