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OECD /KOREA POLICY CENTRE

OECD /KOREA POLICY CENTRE. PAKISTAN: FAILURE OF POVERTY REDUCTION EFFORTS by Saifur Rahman Sherani. PAKISTAN PROFILE. Area 796,000 Sq. km Population 164 million Population Average Annual Growth Rate 1.7% GNI US$ 144 Billion GNI per Capita US$ 770

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OECD /KOREA POLICY CENTRE

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  1. OECD /KOREA POLICY CENTRE PAKISTAN: FAILURE OF POVERTY REDUCTION EFFORTS by Saifur Rahman Sherani

  2. PAKISTAN PROFILE Area 796,000 Sq. km Population 164 million Population Average Annual Growth Rate 1.7% GNI US$ 144 Billion GNI per Capita US$ 770 Domestic Debt Rs. 1,787 Billion (US$ 28 billion) External Debt US$ 45 billion

  3. POVERTY PROFILE • Poverty Line 2,350 calories per adult equivalent (Rs. 944 in 2006 prices) • Population Below Poverty Line: 23.9% • Regional variations: • NWFP (rural) and FATA 44% • Balochistan 47% • Punjab (rural) 32% • Below $ 1 a day 17% • Below S 2 a day 74%

  4. OFFICIAL POVERTY ESTIMATES

  5. POVERTY REDUCTION STRATEGY 2003 • Accelerating economic growth while maintaining macroeconomic stability. • Improving governance. • Investing in human capital. • Targeting the poor and the vulnerable.

  6. SOCIAL INDICATORS 2007 • Adult Literacy Rate 50% • Combined Gross Enrolment ratio 40% • Net Primary enrolment ratio 68% • Life Expectancy 64 years • Newborn with Low birth weight 37% • Children Underweight 30% • Infant Mortality 77 • Under 5 Mortality 99 • Maternal Mortality per 100,000 320

  7. Budgetary Expenditure as % of GDP2007 • Education 1.86% • Health 0.61% • Water supply and Sanitation 0.19% • Rural Development 0.25% • Food Subsidies 0.06% • Food Support Programme 0.04% • Population Planning 0.08%

  8. Social Assistance (Zakat) Disbursed

  9. INCREASING POVERTY • Food Crisis • Energy Crisis – 4,000 MW power shortage • Cottage Industry Shutdown • Textile units: 70% closed • Increasing Unemployment • Inflation 23% • Food Prices Increased 200%

  10. Government Management • Shortage of wheat - four fold increase in prices • (2007 Wheat production 24 million tonnes) • Exported 1.5 million tonnes – $208 /tonne • Imported 2.5 million tonnes - $400 / tonne • Shortage of Power and industrial shut down • Load Shedding • Shortage of gas and increasing prices of fuel

  11. Rush for Wheat Flour

  12. POLITICAL TURMOIL AND INSTABILITY • Military Rule October 1999 to 2008 • Popular Leadership Exiled and imprisoned • Emergency PLUS 2007 • End of Supreme Court March 2007 • Superior Judiciary in Chains • Army Operation in Balochistan 2005 to 2008 • Army Operation in Islamabad 2007 • Wave of Suicide Bombings • Political Murders – [Former Prime Minister, Governor, Chief Minister]

  13. Marriot Hotel Islamabad

  14. War on Terror • US Attacks in FATA 2003 – to date • Military Operation in NWFP 2007 • Military Operation in FATA 2004 to date • Internal Displacement About 2 million people • [Internal Displacement Monitoring Centre – No estimates]

  15. RETURN TO CIVILIAN RULE • Elections February 2008 • Resignation of Military Ruler August 2008 • Constitutional Amendments not Reversed • New Political Government - 55 federal ministers – 20 more to be appointed • Foreign Exchange Reserves Depleted • Financial Crisis • IMF loan obtained

  16. FROM DISCONTENT TO DESPAIR • Poverty and Destitution Increasing • Ever increasing Food Prices • Increasing Unemployment • Social Assistance as Political Patronage through elected representatives • Federal cabinet of 55 ministers • Import of 250 bullet proof vehicles

  17. Poor Sell Kidney for Survival

  18. PRIVATE SOCIAL ASSISTANCE • EDHILangar (soup-kitchen) in all major cities • Imran Khan 50% Subsidy on baked Bread • Private Charities – Food distribution • Zakat

  19. QUEUE FOR FREE FOOD

  20. Government InitiativesPlanned in April 2008 yet to be Implemented • Federal Programme: • Benezir Income Support Programme Federal Government - Rs.34 billion • Rs. 1,000 per month to 2.83 million poor • Provincial Government: • Punjab Government Food Stamp Rs. 21.9 billion for 1.8 million Poor

  21. Pakistan’s Public Expenditure on Social Assistance and War on Terror

  22. DISASTERS • Drought 1999 - 2003 • Floods in Balochistan and NWFP 2005 and 2007 • Earthquake in Northern Pakistan 2005 100,000 killed • Earthquake in Balochistan 2008 • Suicide Bomb Attacks 116

  23. Public Policy Issues • Respect and Acceptance of Constitutional Rights of Individuals by the State • Restoration of Independent Judiciary • Bring Transparency and End Corruption • Pro-poor Public Policy • Strengthening of Planning • Preparation of PRSP - 2

  24. THANK YOU

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