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Understanding Water Deficits and Climate Variation in Viticulture and Wine Production

This talk discusses the relationship between water deficits, climate variability, and viticulture and wine production. It covers the viticulture/wine system, water requirements, climate variability, and the impact of water deficits on vine development and wine quality.

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Understanding Water Deficits and Climate Variation in Viticulture and Wine Production

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  1. Gregory V. Jones Southern Oregon University U.S. Drought Monitor Forum Portland, OregonOctober 10-11, 2007 Understanding what Water Deficits and Climate Variability Mean to Viticulture and Wine Production

  2. Talk Outline • Viticulture/Wine System • Grapes, Wine, and Climate • Water Requirements • Climate Variability • Overview and Conclusions

  3. Viticulture/Wine System Overview • Weather/Climate • Mild winters, low freeze/frost risk • Stable, cloud-free conditions during bloom • Warm and dry summers • Dry maturation period with moderate to high DTR • Water • Low water need compared to other crops • Overall need or amount depends on location • If irrigated, mostly drip … very efficient • Greatest need in initial development (years 1-5) • Deficit irrigation practiced once mature • Some frost protection use Old World vs New World issues

  4. Vegetative Development Berry Development Dormant Stage Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Sap Bleeding Maturation/Harvest Full Dormancy Bloom Bud Break Berry Growth Véraison Leaf Fall Phenological Calendar with Weather/Climate/Water Issues • Cold hardiness limits • Spring frost limit • Adequate soil moisture recharge • Combination of air and soil temperatures initiate bud break • High solar potential • Stable conditions • Days 70-80°F • No rain • Irrigation starts in dry years/periods • Adequate heat accumulation • Days < 95°F, low heat stress • Little to no rain • Irrigation starts in wet years/periods • If irrigating, deficit ET practiced • Slow temperature decline best for latent buds • Adequate chilling • Stressed if soil moisture recharge is deficient

  5. Balance Zone Total Acidity Australian Viticulture from text: “Ripening berries – a critical issue” by Dr. Bryan Coombe and Tony Clancy (Editor, Australian Viticulture), March/April 2001. Illustration by Jordan Koutroumanidis and provided by Don Neel Practical Winery and Vineyard • Quality Wine Production results from the balance of four ripeness clocks running simultaneously but at different rates: • Sugar accumulation • Acid respiration • Phenolic ripeness • Fruit character Fruit character goes from vegetal, herbal, fruity, jammy to cooked.

  6. Water/Irrigation needs in any particular location in any particular year are controlled by: • Spatial variations in climate • Year-to-year variations in weather • Soil type • Topography • Management (variety/clone, rootstock, spacing, cover-cropping, etc)

  7. Water Deficit Issues: • Smaller canopy • Fewer and smaller clusters • Smaller grapes • Increased competition (ground cover, natives, between plants) • Soil salinity imbalances over the long term

  8. Water Deficit Issues: • Non-irrigated vines … Quality ~ ↑ ↑ … Yield ~ ↓ ↓ • Irrigated vines … Quality ~ ↑ ↑ … Yields maintained • However, if combined with high temperatures … • … increased plant stress/water demand and Quality ~ ↓ ↓ … Yield ~ ↓ ↓

  9. Too Cold Threshold Lower sugar levels, Unripe flavors, Unbalanced Too Warm Threshold Lower retention of acids, Overripe flavors, Unbalanced Varietal-Climate Thresholds Plasticity – Adaptation Management (short-term) Varietal (long-term) Optimum Zone Consistent sugar levels, Ripe flavors, Generally balanced - Vintage variations driven by seasonal climate factors (frost, untimely rain, etc.) Wine Production and Quality Metrics Yield/Production Balanced Composition Typical Varietal Flavors Vintage Ratings/Price Climate Metrics Growing Season Average Temperatures, Heat Accumulation

  10. Bordeaux Napa Rhine Valley Burgundy • Climate influences the style of wine an area can produce • Each variety is generally grown in specific regions and narrow climatic zones for optimum quality and production

  11. Global Viticulture Zones 1950 National Center for Atmospheric Research’s Community Climate System Model (CCSM) A1B (mid-range scenario): 1.4° x 1.4° Lat/Lon Jones (2007) in preparation

  12. Global Viticulture Zones 1999 National Center for Atmospheric Research’s Community Climate System Model (CCSM) A1B (mid-range scenario): 1.4° x 1.4° Lat/Lon Isotherms shift poleward ~80-240 km (from 1950) Some expansion NH, mostly declines SH Jones (2007) in preparation

  13. 1980-1987 1988-1995 1996-2003 Walla Walla Valley Willamette Valley Napa Valley Temporal & Spatial Variability in Growing Degree-Days Jones, White, and Myers 2007

  14. 1948-2004 15 Parameters 46 Climate Stations Aggregated to 11 Regions Puget Sound Columbia Valley, WA Columbia Valley, OR Willamette Valley Umpqua Valley Rogue Valley North Valley Foothills North Coast Central Coast Central Valley

  15. Puget Sound Columbia Valley, WA Columbia Valley, OR Willamette Valley Umpqua Valley Rogue Valley 700 Rogue Valley North Valley 500 North Coast Foothills 300 100 GrDD Anomalies (Apr-Oct, base 50°) -100 Central Valley -300 Central Coast -500 Linear trend 5 year moving average -700 1947 1951 1955 1959 1963 1967 1971 1975 1979 1983 1987 1991 1995 1999 2003 Year Growing Season Growing Degree-Days 326 = Mean 94 = Stdev

  16. Puget Sound Descriptive Statistics Trend Parameters Region Std. Decadal Overall 2 a Mean Max. Min. R P - value Dev. Trend Trend 2/25 16.7 3/30 1/14 0.13 *** - 3.8 - 20 Central Valley Columbia Valley, WA 3/5 16.9 4/8 1/17 0.09 ** - 3.3 - 18 North Valley 3/8 18.7 4/15 1/18 0.26 *** - 6.3 - 34 Central Coast 3/9 22.4 4/22 1/13 0.46 *** - 9.6 - 52 North Coast 4/6 17.9 5/12 2/18 – Foothills Columbia Valley, OR 4/9 15.2 5/7 3/4 0.31 *** - 5.0 - 27 Puget Sound 4/20 17.7 5/17 2/28 0.23 *** - 5.4 - 29 Umpqua Valley Willamette Valley 4/25 13.6 5/21 3/21 0.17 *** - 3.5 - 19 Willamette Valley 4/26 11.4 5/16 3/28 0.20 *** - 3.1 - 17 Columbia Valley, WA Umpqua Valley 5/5 10.6 5/24 4/9 0.06 * - 1.8 - 8 Rogue Valley 5/11 9.6 5/28 4/14 0.18 *** - 2.5 - 14 Columbia Valley, OR Rogue Valley 60 50 North Valley 40 North Coast 30 Foothills 20 10 Anomaly in Days per Year 0 -10 Central Valley -20 Central Coast -30 -40 Linear trend -50 5 year moving average -60 1945 1950 1955 1960 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 Year Median Date of Last Spring Frost (0°C) -24 = Mean 12 = Stdev North Coast

  17. 100 95 90 85 Vintage Rating 80 75 70 65 60 1993 1997 2001 1953 1957 1961 1965 1969 1973 1977 1981 1989 1933 1937 1941 1945 1949 1985 Year Napa Valley Cabernet Sauvignon Vintage Ratings (Wine Spectator)

  18. 140 120 100 80 Release Price (US$, 1998) 60 40 20 0 70 75 80 85 90 95 100 Vintage Rating (0-100 Scale) Napa Valley Cabernet Sauvignon Release Price vs Vintage Ratings Rating effects on price are exponential, with a 10-point increase from 80 to 90 resulting in a 200% price increase and an increase from 85-95 resulting in a 350% price increase

  19. PDO-ENSO Modulation Effects on West Coast U.S. Wine Regions and Wine Quality in Napa Valley

  20. Impact of ENSO on Climate • In general, ENSO phase not important factor in variability of wine region climate – likely indirect through soil-water balance Impact of PDO on Climate • PDO was highly significant (P << 0.05) for most wine region temperature variables (11 of 15) • No significant differences in precipitation (opposite of ENSO) • Cold PDO linked to increased spring frost, low GrDDs Impact of PDO-ENSO Modulation on Climate • Greatest effects seen in wine region climates during neutral ENSO-cold PDO modulations – significant for Tavg, Tmin, GrDD, spring frost variables and total frost free days

  21. Ratings and Teleconnections 1933-2002 Of the 7 worst years (ratings <71), 6 are neutral ENSO-cold PDO

  22. Wine Spectator - Napa Valley Cabernet Sauvignon Vintage Ratings 100 95 90 ?? 85 80 Vintage Rating 75 70 65 60 1989 1997 2001 1993 1973 1977 1981 1985 1949 1953 1957 1961 1965 1969 1945 1933 1937 1941 Year What about 1999-2002 and Beyond? • PDO has displayed more inter-annual variability since 1998 • Ratings 5-year moving average appears headed down since 1997 • 1998, 2000, and 2002 all much lower than 5-year moving average The 2005 and 2006 vintages have not been rated yet Climate structures during these years would point to highly rated vintages (>90) Early indications are for good wine quality, with 2005 a record for production

  23. Oregon Regional Irrigation Climatology for Winegrapes Roseburg 15 15 10 10 5 5 Jan-Jun Rainfall Anomaly (in) 0 0 -5 -5 -10 -10 1910 1915 1920 1925 1930 1935 1940 1945 1950 1955 1960 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 1910 1915 1920 1925 1930 1935 1940 1945 1950 1955 1960 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 Year Year 10 5 4 8 3 6 2 4 1 Jan-Jun Rainfall Anomaly (in) Jan-Jun Rainfall Anomaly (in) 2 0 -1 0 -2 -2 -3 -4 -4 -6 -5 1910 1915 1920 1925 1930 1935 1940 1945 1950 1955 1960 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 1910 1915 1920 1925 1930 1935 1940 1945 1950 1955 1960 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 Year Year Salem 1996 1996 1983 1998 1999 1983 Jan-Jun Rainfall Anomaly (in) 1985 1973 2001 1985 1977 2001 Medford Pendleton 1995 1998 1956 2000 1978 1996 1992 1964 1973 2001 1994 1985

  24. Simulated Soil Moisture and Cumulative Irrigation – Rogue Valley 1999 = dry/warm; 2000 = typical; 2005 = wet/cool Medford Agrimet, Ruch Gravelly Silt Loam Statewide Annual Variation in Irrigation Needs (1989-2006) Range of Replenishment Needed - 2.5 to 12.8 inches “Dry/warm” years 13-71% increase, 5-24 days earlier “Wet/cool” years 14-30% decrease, 11-22 days later

  25. Overview and Conclusions • The viticulture/wine production system is a unique specialty crop with strong value added components driven by a wide range of varieties. • Wine production is a climatically sensitive endeavor, with narrow zones providing the most optimum production and quality characteristics, which therefore puts the industry at great risk from both short term climate variations and long term change. • Desirably low summer/fall rainfall, low water requirements compared to other crops, and efficient irrigation methods make wine production more suited to regions prone to drought. • Some controlled water deficit is good for quality, however long term drought can bring about smaller yields and soil salinity imbalances.

  26. 70 Eastern Oregon and Washington Extreme Freeze Frequencies # of Days < 20 °F 60 # of Days < 5 °F Moving Average 50 40 Count 30 20 10 0 1927 1942 1957 1972 1987 2002 Winter (Oct-Mar)

  27. 30 ) °F 20 ( 10 0 Absolute Minimum Temperature -10 -20 -30 1927 1942 1957 1972 1987 2002 Winter (Oct-Mar) Eastern Oregon and Washington Extreme Minimum Temperatures

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