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The following temperatures are simply model information based They are not my forecast.!! morning of 9/23 the GFS Model shows: M- U 20s over central MB 30 to 32°... eastern MN northeast IA eastern WI M- U 30s... eastern ND eastern SD rest of IA northeast MO western ILL western WI
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The following temperatures are simply model information based They are not my forecast.!! morning of 9/23 the GFS Model shows:M- U 20s over central MB30 to 32°... eastern MN northeast IA eastern WIM- U 30s... eastern ND eastern SD rest of IA northeast MO western ILL western WI morning of 9/24 the GFS Model shows:M-U 20s... all of south-central Canada... eastern ND northern half of MN30 to 32°... the rest of ND all of SD northern NEB the southern MN all of IA all of WI northwest 50% of LL... M and U 30s... southern NEB KS MO IND eastern ILL OH morning of 9/25... the GFS Model shows:M-U 20s ... all of sw Ontario... all of MN all of IA western WI northern MO .30 to 32°... eastern ND eastern SD eastern NEB eastern KS the rest of MO all of ILL eastern WI all of IND ...all of KY most of TN and as far S as MO/ ARK state line. mike@themoneyfarm.com
North Dakota Corn • Ethanol production 300 million bushels • 50 million Red Trail • 50 million Blue Flint • 100 million Casselton • 100 million Hankinson • ND corn production 270 million bushels • Potential shortfall of 30 million bushels • Casselton & Hankinson not operating • 200 million bushel surplus mike@themoneyfarm.com
Chicago Corn Futures mike@themoneyfarm.com
US SOYBEAN OUTLOOK mike@themoneyfarm.com
Chicago Soybean Futures mike@themoneyfarm.com
WHEAT • US acres will decline • Winter wheat crop insurance guarantee price $5.44 vs $8.77 in 09? • Record spring wheat/durum yields • Very low protein • All of world stocks increase in india & china • Wheat LDP?? mike@themoneyfarm.com
Chicago Wheat Futures mike@themoneyfarm.com
FORCES BEYOND OUR CONTROL mike@themoneyfarm.com
US GOVERNMENT • Trade problems? (China tires) • Weak dollar policy? • Increased regulation of hedge funds and speculators? • Economic outlook? mike@themoneyfarm.com
WORLD ECONOMY • World economic growth returning? • Energy markets bottomed? • Era of “hot commodities” already over? • Reduced world planted acres? mike@themoneyfarm.com
CONCLUSIONS • World still needs consistently good crops • Volatility will stay with us • Market emphasis already shifting to southern hemisphere crops • Where does the cash go? mike@themoneyfarm.com
What have I done? • Sold all 2008 crop long ago • Sold 40% new crop soybeans • Sold 25% new crop canola & sunflowers • Sold 20% new crop wheat • Recommended buying call options on corn, wheat, soybeans in past few weeks mike@themoneyfarm.com
What didn’t I do? • Did not sell new crop corn • Target was December futures at $4.75 • December futures got to $4.73 • Late planting, increasing demand, super soybean demand, smaller corn acres in Southern Hemisphere • Best ethanol margins in 12 to 18 months mike@themoneyfarm.com
What would I do now? • Nothing • Wait for weather – freeze next week? • Consider covering new crop sales with call options • Put low protein wheat under loan • Demand getting better mike@themoneyfarm.com
World Population Density mike@themoneyfarm.com
Source: Hightower mike@themoneyfarm.com
Crude Oil Futures mike@themoneyfarm.com
Gold Futures mike@themoneyfarm.com
US Dollar Index mike@themoneyfarm.com
