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Next Generation Climate Action Plans. GHG Regulation and Policy Considerations. California Carbon Emissions. Current Cap and Trade regulations encapsulate approximately 85% of California’s emissions sources: Electric Generation Industrial Processes Transportation Fuels – Starting in 2015
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Next Generation Climate Action Plans GHG Regulation and Policy Considerations
California Carbon Emissions Current Cap and Trade regulations encapsulate approximately 85% of California’s emissions sources: • Electric Generation • Industrial Processes • Transportation Fuels – Starting in 2015 • Natural Gas Suppliers – Starting in 2015
California’s Carbon Future ? Downstream Financial Impact: • Current carbon prices do not reflect actual cost of mitigating emissions
Post 2020: ARB’s Scoping Plan Update Reviews nine (9) sectors: Advocates for “mid-term” emissions targets Sector specific emissions targets “Push” and “Pull” incentives
Short-lived Climate Pollutants Methane Emissions Black Carbon
Proposed Federal Regulations • Proposed 30% carbon reduction from 2005 by 2030 • State level caps • Return of the Western Climate Initiative (WCI) Regional Program? • Final regulations expected by June 2015 • States have until 2016 to come up with a strategy • Flexibility
Regulated Emissions Market Prices are expected to remain close to the auction floor and then rise relatively rapidly • The economic scenario for the “Trigger Point” is in relation to the next best alternative, which is emission mitigation. • More expensive than low-hanging fruit. Institutional and transformational change. • Pick Up in the Economy • Disruptions to current generation sources • Low Precipitation “Trigger Point”
