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Alfredo Campos Costa e Maria Luísa Sousa

Alfredo Campos Costa e Maria Luísa Sousa. Redução da vulnerabilidade e mitigação do risco sísmico. Aplicação à Área Metropolitana de Lisboa.

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Alfredo Campos Costa e Maria Luísa Sousa

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  1. Alfredo Campos CostaeMaria Luísa Sousa Redução da vulnerabilidade e mitigação do risco sísmico.Aplicação à Área Metropolitana de Lisboa Workshop projecto LESSLOSS –SP10 – Earthquake disaster scenario prediction and loss modelling for urban areas Curso de formação em modelação de perdas em consequência de sismos, técnicas para a redução da vulnerabilidade e risco sísmico LNEC, 25 de Maio de 2006

  2. Index • Choice of case study area • Vulnerability and inventory definition • Loss modelling for the Metropolitan Area of Lisbon - MAL 3.1 Reference situation 3.2 After mitigation • Conclusions

  3. Index • Choice of case study area • Vulnerability and inventory definition • Loss modelling for the Metropolitan Area of Lisbon - MAL 3.1 Reference situation 3.2 After mitigation • Conclusions

  4. Choice of case study area •Metropolitan Area of Lisbon - MAL 1909 eqM 6.9 1755 eqM8.75 3 x 106 inhabitants

  5. Choice of case study area •Metropolitan Area of Lisbon - MAL 96 km 90 km

  6. Choice of mitigation options •MAL • Main causes of losses • Human losses: severe and complete damage in most masonry buildings • Economic losses: damages on RC buildings with the highest exposure in the region (>1960) • Mitigation actions • Upgrading most masonry buildings • Upgrading of RC buildings >1960 mainly those located in soils correspondent of the higher exposure of buildings • Methodology • Develop new capacity and fragility curves; consider a possible range of modification techniques. • update LNECloss tool

  7. Index • Choice of case study area • Vulnerability and inventory definition • Loss modelling for the Metropolitan Area of Lisbon - MAL 3.1 Reference situation 3.2 After mitigation • Conclusions

  8. Housing Stock Masonry old buildings and traditional construction Buildings after arrival of RC Masonry with RC floors RC Vulnerability and inventory definition •Characterization of MAL housing stock

  9. Housing Stock Masonry old buildings and traditional construction Buildings after arrival of RC Masonry with RC floors RC Vulnerability and inventory definition •Characterization of MAL housing stock Traditional construction(rural) Masonry old buildings (urban)

  10. Housing Stock Masonry old buildings and traditional construction Buildings after arrival of RC Masonry with RC floors RC Vulnerability and inventory definition •Characterization of MAL housing stock Masonry old buildings (urban)

  11. Housing Stock Masonry old buildings and traditional construction Buildings after arrival of RC Masonry with RC floors RC Vulnerability and inventory definition •Characterization of MAL housing stock Masonry old buildings (urban) Before 1755

  12. Housing Stock Masonry old buildings and traditional construction Buildings after arrival of RC Masonry with RC floors RC Vulnerability and inventory definition •Characterization of MAL housing stock Masonry old buildings (urban)

  13. Housing Stock Masonry old buildings and traditional construction Buildings after arrival of RC Masonry with RC floors RC Vulnerability and inventory definition •Characterization of MAL housing stock Masonry old buildings (urban) “Pombalinos”

  14. Housing Stock Masonry old buildings and traditional construction Buildings after arrival of RC Masonry with RC floors RC Vulnerability and inventory definition •Characterization of MAL housing stock Masonry old buildings (urban)

  15. Housing Stock Masonry old buildings and traditional construction Buildings after arrival of RC Masonry with RC floors RC Vulnerability and inventory definition •Characterization of MAL housing stock Masonry old buildings (urban) “Gaioleiros”

  16. Housing Stock Masonry old buildings and traditional construction Buildings after arrival of RC Masonry with RC floors RC Vulnerability and inventory definition •Characterization of MAL housing stock Masonry old buildings (urban)

  17. Vulnerability and inventory definition •Characterization of MAL housing stock Housing Stock Masonry old buildings and traditional construction Buildings after arrival of RC Masonry old buildings (urban) Masonry with RC floors RC Unreinforced brick with RC floors “Placa”

  18. Vulnerability and inventory definition •Characterization of MAL housing stock Housing Stock Masonry old buildings and traditional construction Buildings after arrival of RC Masonry old buildings (urban) Masonry with RC floors RC

  19. Vulnerability and inventory definition •Characterization of MAL housing stock Housing Stock Masonry old buildings and traditional construction Buildings after arrival of RC Masonry old buildings (urban) Masonry with RC floors RC Confined masonry

  20. Vulnerability and inventory definition •Characterization of MAL housing stock Housing Stock Masonry old buildings and traditional construction Buildings after arrival of RC Masonry old buildings (urban) Masonry with RC floors RC

  21. Vulnerability and inventory definition •Characterization of MAL housing stock Housing Stock Masonry old buildings and traditional construction Buildings after arrival of RC Masonry old buildings (urban) Masonry with RC floors RC Without ERD

  22. Vulnerability and inventory definition •Characterization of MAL housing stock Housing Stock Masonry old buildings and traditional construction Buildings after arrival of RC Masonry old buildings (urban) Masonry with RC floors RC

  23. Vulnerability and inventory definition •Characterization of MAL housing stock Housing Stock Masonry old buildings and traditional construction Buildings after arrival of RC Masonry old buildings (urban) Masonry with RC floors RC After RSCCS code and before RSA code

  24. Vulnerability and inventory definition •Characterization of MAL housing stock Housing Stock Masonry old buildings and traditional construction Buildings after arrival of RC Masonry old buildings (urban) Masonry with RC floors RC

  25. Vulnerability and inventory definition •Characterization of MAL housing stock Housing Stock Masonry old buildings and traditional construction Buildings after arrival of RC Masonry old buildings (urban) Masonry with RC floors RC After RSA code

  26. Vulnerability and inventory definition •Characterization of MAL housing stock Housing Stock Masonry old buildings and traditional construction Buildings after arrival of RC Masonry old buildings (urban) Masonry with RC floors RC

  27. Vulnerability and inventory definition •Geographic distribution of exposure MAL

  28. Vulnerability and inventory definition•7 vulnerability classes x 7 nº floors Vulnerability classes 315 Adobe + rubble stone + others Masonry before 1960 49 Masonry 1961-85 Masonry 1986-01 RC before 1960 RC 1961-85 7 RC 1986-01

  29. Vulnerability and inventory definition •Vulnerability characterization 49 typologies

  30. Vulnerability and inventory definition •Soil classification 37 3 MAL

  31. Vulnerability and inventory definition •Exposureanalysis MAL

  32. Vulnerability and inventory definition •Exposureanalysis MAL

  33. Vulnerability and inventory definition •Exposureanalysis MAL

  34. Index • Choice of case study area • Vulnerability and inventory definition • Loss modelling for the Metropolitan Area of Lisbon - MAL 3.1 Reference situation 3.2 After mitigation • Conclusions

  35. Surface North site   OS R h x W y r O L  (x,y) z Rhipo Loss Modelling for MAL•Modelling earthquake ground motion SA [cm/s^2]

  36. 475 years RP Contrib. [‰] 50 years RP Contrib. [‰] Loss Modelling for MAL•Modelling earthquake scenario • Earthquake scenario  modal valuesderived from PSHA disaggregation

  37. Site effects •Soil dynamic amplification Sa [g] 1.2 1 0.8 0.6 0.4 0.2 0 0 5 10 15 20 25 Sd [cm]

  38. Loss Modelling for MAL•Modelling earthquake scenario 475 years RP scenario Tagus River PGA considering soil columns PGA for bedrock

  39. Loss Modelling for MAL•Modelling Building vuln. and damage evaluation • Capacity curve • Yield capacity (Dy, Ay) • Ultimate capacity Ay = Cs  / Dy = AyTe2 / (2)2 Au = Ay Du = Dy • Fragility curve • Drift ratio d

  40. Mechanic model •Capacity spectrum method x initial 0 Iteration 0: Te response spectra SA x 1 Iteration 1: T1 x 2 Iteration 2: T2 Capacity curve Spectral acceleration T f Performance point ( SD , SA ) max max x final demand f spectra after convergence T >T2>T1>Te f Spectral displacement SD

  41. Loss Modelling for MAL•Modelling Building vuln. and damage evaluation 49 typologies

  42. Loss Modelling for MAL•Modelling strengthening interventions Criteria derived from losses for thereference situation and 475 RP

  43.  Loss Modelling for MAL•Modelling strengthening interventions  

  44. Loss Modelling for MAL•Modelling strengthening interventions

  45. Loss Modelling for MAL•Loss estimates for modified city • Buildings (Masonry + RC) Completely damaged for the reference situation and for the 12 intervention strategies

  46. Loss Modelling for MAL•Loss estimates for modified city • Population killed (inhabitants of Masonry and RC buildings) for the reference situation and for the 12 intervention strategies

  47. Loss Modelling for MAL•Loss estimates for modified city • Modified urban region (Str.#8 for masonry and Str. #12 for RC) Mitigation Reference Severely damaged buildings

  48. Loss Modelling for MAL•Loss estimates for existing city • Disaggregation of economic losses, by damage state, for the 475 return period scenario

  49. Loss Modelling for MAL•Loss estimates for modified city • Modified urban region (Str.#8 for masonry and Str. #12 for RC) Mitigation Reference Completely damaged buildings

  50. kilometers Loss Modelling for MAL•Loss estimates for modified city • Modified urban region (Str.#8 for masonry and Str. #12 for RC) Mitigation Reference Killed population

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