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Analytic Tools in the Policy Process: What Works and What Does not?

Analytic Tools in the Policy Process: What Works and What Does not? . ESD 11 December 6, 2000. Outline. Available Tools for Policy Analysis Economic Political Business / Finance Negotiation Sociometric Cases and applications Health Harbors Water Telecom

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Analytic Tools in the Policy Process: What Works and What Does not?

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  1. Analytic Tools in the Policy Process: What Works and What Does not? ESD 11 December 6, 2000

  2. Outline • Available Tools for Policy Analysis • Economic • Political • Business / Finance • Negotiation • Sociometric • Cases and applications • Health • Harbors • Water • Telecom • Discussion of the ESD 11 Final Exam

  3. Economic and Financial Tools • Assumption: Homo economicus • Cost/Benefit Analysis • “Social Cost/Benefit” Analysis • Trade-off Analysis • Revenue Analysis • IRR

  4. Sociometric • Survey Analysis • Case Study Analysis • . • . Trade-off Analysis Negotiation

  5. Pareto Dominated Alternatives Attribute 1 Pareto Superior Alternatives Attribute 2

  6. Getting to Yes:The Principles • Separate the people from the Problem • Tomorrow is another day… • Focus on the Interests not the Positions • What is important to the negotiators? • What are the attributes of a good outcome? • Invent Options for mutual gain • Expand the alternative set • “What are we missing?…” • Insist on using objective criteria • How can we measure how we are doing?

  7. Political Paradigms • Analyses that ASSUME rational behavior • Again Homo economicus ? • Bounded Rationality ? • Satisficing behavior? • Conflict avoidance behavior? • The Simple Paradigm • Structural Functional Analysis

  8. The Cases – What did you use? • Transplant Case? • HarborCo Case? • Water In California Case? • African Telecom? • Other Courses this semester?

  9. Two Questions • What policy analytic tools did you use that you “brought with you?” • What policy analytic tools would you have wished to use that you did not, yourself or a team member, have sufficient knowledge to use?

  10. Policy Analysis: “Truths” • Question / challenge the assumptions • THE forecast is always wrong • Communication is the key: Make it more understandable not more complicated • Measure the important variables not the variables that are easy to measure

  11. Technology, not resource depletion, is the driving force for substition The consequences of poor strategies can be enormous and unpredictable Most forecasts are wrong, therefore robustness is a critical planning requirement The task of analysts is to lay out the options, not to tell the decision makers what to do Measure the right thing Do not confuse the systems approach with systems analysis Understand technologies and manage them accordingly Quality pays and cleaner is cheaper Don’t overemphasize science and de-emphasize engineering Government Sponsored R&D projects in areas where the government is not the user of the results are usually ineffective Lee, Ball and Tabors on Energy Policy

  12. The ESD 11 Final Examination • When: Friday December 15 • From: 9am to 4pm • Where: Your choice (but alone) • How: In and out on Email to BOTH tabors@mit.edu and farzana@mit.edu • Format: • General Problem: A policy analysis based on the policy process paradigm that we have discussed in class (and will discuss again on Friday). • Specific Problem: 5 to 7 stated issues around which your response can be structured.

  13. ESD 11 Final: Example • For your home country, or for a nation that you have studied, provide a policy analysis of one of the following issues. Focus your response on a concise statement of the background to the problem and then upon the “cast of characters” and the individual positions and the logic of those positions. Conclude with a discussion of a tactical strategy for implementation of the policy discussed. • Example of a proposed policy • Absorption of CO2 by forests is a desired means of reducing Global Warming.

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