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The main moisture flux sources in SAMS and evolution of the system

The main moisture flux sources in SAMS and evolution of the system. Iracema F.A.Cavalcanti Daniel R. Andres Adma Raia Silvio Nilo Henrique Barbosa. CPTEC/INPE. Models and simulations. AGCM CPTEC/COLA T62L28 (~200 km) 10 years simulation (1982-1991) 50 years simulation (using 1980-2002)

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The main moisture flux sources in SAMS and evolution of the system

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  1. The main moisture flux sources in SAMS and evolution of the system Iracema F.A.Cavalcanti Daniel R. Andres Adma Raia Silvio Nilo Henrique Barbosa CPTEC/INPE

  2. Models and simulations • AGCM CPTEC/COLA T62L28 (~200 km) • 10 years simulation (1982-1991) • 50 years simulation (using 1980-2002) • Eta Regional Model (40 km) • DJF simulation (1996-2000)

  3. CPTEC/COLA AGCM

  4. MODEL VERTICALLY INTEGRATED MOISTURE FLUX

  5. NCEP REANALYSIS

  6. NCEP VERTICALLY INTEGRATED MOISTURE FLUX

  7. REGIONAL ETA MODEL

  8. 1996 to 2000 DJF SIMULATION Eta Regional Model 40 km Downscale from CPTEC/COLA AGCM precipitation MOISTURE FLUX Moisture flux

  9. INTERANNUAL CHANGES

  10. EL NINO CPTEC/COLA AGCM

  11. LA NINA CPTEC/COLA AGCM

  12. EL NINO 82/83- LA NINA 88/89 CPTEC/COLA AGCM

  13. Eta Regional Model

  14. DIURNAL CHANGE

  15. PRECIPITATION DIURNAL CYCLE DJF 06 GMT 12 GMT 00 GMT 18 GMT

  16. DJF WIND FLOW AT 850 hPa 12 GMT 06 GMT 18 GMT 00 GMT

  17. ETA MODEL

  18. Submonthly monsoon variability LLJ ZCAS Dependence on the low level flow

  19. IMPROVEMENTS IN THE MODELS

  20. DJF 10 YEARS AVERAGE GRELL ENSEMBLE CONVECTION SCHEME MCGA CPTE/COLA

  21. MONTHLY AND SEASONAL CHANGES • MONTHLY CHANGES OF MOISTURE FLUX : LARGE DIFFERENCES IN DJF AND JJA. • MOISTURE FLUX FROM NORTH AND SOUTH ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AMAZON REGION AND THEN TO CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST BRAZIL AND FROM SOUTH ATLANTIC DIRECTLY TO SE, IN DJF. • IN JJA THE MOISTURE FLUX IS DIRECTED FROM ATLANTIC OCEAN TO NORTHWEST S.A.

  22. CHANGES IN MOISTURE FLUX /WIND FLOW AT LOW LEVELS • DIURNAL SCALE • SUBMONTHLY SCALE • SEASONAL SCALE • INTERANNUAL SCALE • INTRASEASONAL SCALE ?

  23. ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS VAMOS/CLIVAR, JOSS/UCAR

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