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American Community Survey: Break in Series Due to Controls

American Community Survey: Break in Series Due to Controls. Prepared for the 2010 SDC-CIC Joint Steering Committee Meetings February 24, 2010. Presented by: Mark Asiala Department of Commerce U.S. Census Bureau Washington, DC 20233. 1. Background.

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American Community Survey: Break in Series Due to Controls

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  1. American Community Survey: Break in Series Due to Controls Prepared for the 2010 SDC-CIC Joint Steering Committee Meetings February 24, 2010 Presented by: Mark Asiala Department of Commerce U.S. Census Bureau Washington, DC 20233 1

  2. Background • The 2010 Census offers the opportunity to greatly improve the accuracy of the population estimates. • As information is incorporated from the decennial census, the potential for significant shifts in the population estimates is present. • Because we use the population estimates as controls, these shifts can also cause a break in the series of ACS estimates.

  3. Education of Data Users • The Census Bureau will need to alert ACS data users to this issue to help prevent misinterpretation of the year-to-year change. • Outlets include: • Web site • Presentations • Partnerships with other groups

  4. Key Concepts for Handout • Postcensal estimates • Released annually • Identified by their vintage • Time series is recalculated for each vintage • Controls for ACS multiyear data are equal to the average of the population estimates. • No issues if all population estimates have the same census as their base.

  5. Key Concepts for Handout • Intercensal estimates • Typically release once per decade • Covers the time series from one census to the next census (e.g., Census 2000 to 2010 Census) • Smoothes out any error present in the postcensal estimates when compared to the next census (i.e., 2010) • The intercensal estimates for 2000—2010 make use of information from both Census 2000 and 2010 Census.

  6. Highlights from the Handout • The use of 2010 Census information will be phased in over time. • Release year 2011 (2010 ACS Data) • Simplified 2010 postcensal population estimates • Preliminary intercensal population estimates for 2006—2009. • Subcounty controls will use internal postcensal estimates based on Census 2000 adjusted to agree with updated county controls

  7. Highlights from the Handout (continued) • Release year 2012 (2011 ACS Data) • Establish the “steady state”, 2011 and 2012 ACS data should have no issues due to controls. • Use postcensal controls for year 2010 forward, vintage 2011. • Use final intercensal controls for years prior to 2010. • Subcounty controls will use the same source as the county controls

  8. Summary • What to expect? • In release year 2011, the use of updated county controls will have an impact on most estimates. • In release year 2012, the use of updated subcounty controls should have a more focused impact on subcounty estimates.

  9. Contact Information mark.e.asiala@census.gov

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