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Model Thinking

Model Thinking. Scott E Page. Prediction. Categories. Linear Models. Markov Models. Many Models. Diversity Prediction Theorem. Model Thinking. Scott E Page. Model Thinking. Scott E Page. Prediction. “Lump to Live”. Pear 100 Cake 250 Apple 90 Banana 110 Pie 350.

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Model Thinking

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  1. Model Thinking Scott E Page

  2. Prediction

  3. Categories

  4. Linear Models

  5. Markov Models

  6. Many Models

  7. Diversity Prediction Theorem

  8. Model Thinking Scott E Page

  9. Model Thinking Scott E Page

  10. Prediction

  11. “Lump to Live”

  12. Pear 100 Cake 250 Apple 90 Banana 110 Pie 350

  13. Pear (100-180)2= 6400 Cake (250-180)2= 4900 Apple (90-180)2 = 8100 Banana (110-180)2= 4900 Pie (350-180)2=28900 Total Variation = 53,200

  14. Categories

  15. DESSERT FRUIT

  16. DESSERT FRUIT Mean = 100 Variation = 200 Mean = 300 Variation = 5000

  17. Total Variation = 53,200 Fruit Variation = 200 Dessert Variation = 5000

  18. R-Squared % Variation Explained 1 – 5200/53,200 90.2%

  19. Linear Models

  20. Linear Model Z = ax + by + cz +….

  21. Calories in Sub Calories = bun + mayo + ham + cheese + onion + tomato + lettuce

  22. Calories in Sub Bun 300 Mayo 200 Ham 50 Cheese 100 Onion 5 Tomato 5 Lettuce 5 Total 665

  23. Model Thinking Scott E Page

  24. Model Thinking Scott E Page

  25. Prediction

  26. Diversity Prediction Theorem

  27. Amy predicts 10 Belle predicts 16 Carlos predicts 25 Average value = 17 Actual value = 18

  28. Error Amy: (10-18)2 = 64 Belle: (16-18) 2 = 4 Carlos: (25-18) 2 = 49 Average Error: 39

  29. Crowd (17-18)2 = 1

  30. Diversity (Variation) Amy: (10-17)2 = 49 Belle: (16-11)2 = 1 Carlos: (25-17)2 = 64 Diversity: 38

  31. Crowd’s error = 1 Average error = 39 Diversity = 38

  32. Diversity Prediction Theorem Crowd Error = Average Error - Diversity Crowd’s Error = Average Error - Diversity

  33. Diversity Prediction Theorem Crowd Error = Average Error - Diversity Crowd’s Error = Average Error - Diversity

  34. Osu.edu

  35. Crowd Error = Average Error - Diversity 0.6 = 2,956.0 - 2955.4

  36. Crowd Error = Average Error - Diversity 0.6 = 2,956.0 - 2955.4

  37. Model Thinking Scott E Page

  38. Model Thinking Scott E Page

  39. Reason # 1: Intelligent Citizen of the World

  40. Reason # 2: Clearer Thinker

  41. Reason # 3: Understand and Use Data

  42. Reason # 4: Decide, Strategize, and Design

  43. Model Thinking Scott E Page

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