Toronto’s Future Weather and Climate Drivers Study

1. Toronto’s Future Weather and Climate Drivers Study Request for Proposal January 16, 2009 Contract Start Date June 11, 2009 Completion Anticipated August 30, 2010 External Work Awarded to SENES Consultants Ltd By City of Toronto – Toronto Environment Office At Cost of $250,000

2. Why We Study? • If climate is changing – we need to know by how much and how soon, especially in respect to the extremes of weather. • IPCC Model outputs (GCM & RCM) do not include Great Lakes adequately AND cannot operate at resolution levels much smaller than ½ of Ontario • City needs resolution capable of “seeing” events such as the Finch Avenue Storm (Aug 19, 2005)

3. Rainfall amounts up to 175 mm recorded in Yonge/Steeles area 103 mm recorded in 1 hour at Environment Canada Downsview BUT only 41.4 mm at Toronto Pearson, 31.8 mm at Toronto City Estimated insured losses from August 19 storms: $500M Finch Avenue Toronto: August 19, 2005 Rainfall amounts up to 175 mm recorded in Yonge/Steeles area 103 mm recorded in 1 hour at Environment Canada Downsview BUT only 41.4 mm at Toronto Pearson, 31.8 mm at Toronto City Estimated insured losses from August 19 storms: $500M

4. Basic Concepts Behind The Study • We want to understand what forces & factors “drive” Toronto’s weather – now. • We want to see how these “drivers” change in future [based on IPCC based (GCM & RCM) model output] • We want to understand what future forces & factors will “drive” Toronto’s future weather and what the weather extremes will be – soon enough for us to adapt to such changes ahead of time.

5. How We Study? ….. (part 1) • Run Weather Research Forecast Model (WRF/ FRESH) “to match” Toronto’s weather of multiple extremes (2000 – 2009) • Identify Toronto’s Cause & Effect (C&E) “Weather Drivers” • Run IPCC (Hadley Centre) Regional Circulation Models (RCM – Hadley 3) for area including Toronto for 2050’s and 2070’s (under IPCC economic fossil use rates & population scenarios A2 & A1B) … ie the IPCC “Climate Drivers” • Identify Changes in Toronto’s C&E “Weather Drivers” – link to expectations of changes of magnitude, frequency and probability of future events

6. How We Study? ….. (part 2) • Use Hadley Centre RCM output to modify the “Cause & Effect Weather Drivers” for Toronto and Re-Run the 1990’s WRF/ FRESH model for 2050’s and 2070’s for Toronto with the future (Hadley 3) time period inputs • Extract Means, Standard Deviations and Extremes (Maximums and Minimums) of all parameters (eg rainfall, heat, … and indices)

7. What Do We Hope To Get? … (part 1) • Magnitude, Frequency and Probability of Current & Future Significant Weather Events AND the Degree of Certainty of Such Predictions • EG …. Intense Rainfalls (like Finch Ave., Aug 19, 2005) …. Heat Waves …. Freeze-Thaw Cycles …. Winds …. Snowstorms …. Droughts …. etc etc (180 parameters in all) • NB …. We will not “see” exactly where and when any such event will occur – but we do hope to “see” the likelihood within an area and timeframe of all occurrences by their predicted severity

8. What Do We Hope To Get? … (part 2) • Documentation from Consultants as Scientifically Defensible & Readily Understandable Reports • PLUS Documents from City Staff as Publicly Understandable & Illustrated Reports and Overview Summaries

9. What Use Will It All Be ? • For Climate Adaptation by City Divisions and by Others …. (including for example) • Transportation Services • Shelter, Support & Housing • Toronto Water • To Find the Best Balance and Budget Point Between Over Building and Under Preparing for Future Events

10. Early Results • More problems experienced than even we anticipated (data logistics, file matching, etc) • Comparison of Model Output w Monitor Data for 1999-2008 • Very Close Match for 179 of 180 parameters c.f. Model vs Monitor (Precipitation = our biggest issue, but this is not a surprise) • But even Aug 19 Storm located perfectly • Are our intensity issues  from model issues or monitor issues? • Project = On Track, On Time & On Budget • Full Results scheduled for early Summer 2010 • Final Product scheduled for late Summer 2010

11. WRF/FRESH “matches” Finch Ave Storm of August 19th ,2005

12. Post Study Next Steps • Outcomes = Purpose & Application (as above) • BUT (1) Does our Output truly meet Input needs of Future Climate Adaptation and Risk Assessment? • BUT (2) Is intended further evaluation & modification (as per 5 Year Plan) necessary, do-able and affordable? • Original Intent was to get results PLUS determine: • Was approach fully satisfactory for needs? • If not, what do we need to do? And, can we do it? • And does our acquired ability and information meet the City’s and the Community’s present and future needs ?

13. Mitigation and Adaptation Responses to Climate Change in the City of Toronto Christopher Llewelyn Morgan Toronto Environment Office City of Toronto April 15th, 2010

14. OUTLINE 1. The Basic Science of Climate Change 2. Modelling, Monitoring & Analysis 3. What is Changing? a) Global b) Toronto 4. What are the Consequences? 5. Policies and Actions 6. Mitigation Responses 7. Adaptation Responses 8. Conclusions and Solutions

15. Changed Forces  Changed Consequences • Longer Heat Waves  more A/C • Stronger Winds  more tree blow down • (which can also take out residential hydro!) • Longer Growing Season (& pests survive) • More Droughts  loss of habitat and species • More Frequent & More Intense Rain Events  more wash outs, more basements flooded • Changed Tracks of Hurricanes & Tornadoes  More Flooding and Property Damage

16. Changed Resistances  Changed Consequences • Infrastructure Has Become Very Old Pay me now or pay more later ? • Codes & Standards Are Becoming Outdated • Bridges Too Low & Culverts Too Small • Rail Lines Need Bigger Gaps • Houses & Towers & Wind Standards ? • Natural Habitat Stressed  Street Trees & Local Transmission Lines  Tree Root Zones Impeded by Pipes & Wires

17. Toronto: August 19, 2005Ontario’s Most Costly Weather Disaster Rainfall amounts up to 175 mm recorded in Yonge/Steeles area 103 mm recorded in 1 hour at Environment Canada Downsview BUT only 41.4 mm at Toronto Pearson, 31.8 mm at Toronto City Estimated insured losses from August 19 storms: $500M

18. Risks to Various Infrastructure Types from Changing Climate and Weather Extremes (Frequencies/Intensities)

20. CONCLUSIONS • Accelerated Climate Change due to Human Activities is a Scientific and Serious Truth • Climate Means & Extremes Will Change • Weather Forces + Weakening Resistances  Expensive Consequences • Local Actions Can Help the Global Problem • Significant and Measurable Integrated Local MANAGEMENT Actions are Needed!!

21. SOLUTIONS • Manage Mitigation • “Change is in the Air” -- Targets (80% by 50) • Manage Adaptation • “Ahead of the Storm” -- Adapt Before It Hurts • Ongoing Dynamic Assessment of Stress & Responses [Policies & Actions] • Employ Long Term Thinking • Employ Lasting Forceful Resolution • No More Bridges Too Low

22. The Final Word / Equation E =MC3 E = Environment M =Management C1 = Basic Continental Climate C2 = Climate Change C3 = Urban Heat Island Climate Plus C4 ? = Catastrophism [vs established Uniformitism] ?