Monitoring energy/carbon savings is crucial. Why?

1. Monitoring energy/carbon savings is crucial. Why? Rudy Rooth, KEMA Low Carbon Communities Conference London, 13 July 2011

2. Presentation outline The need for monitoring Monitoring and energy efficiency Examples Dutch energy performance of buildings standards (EPC) versus actual energy consumption District heat project in CONCERTO Conclusions

3. The need for monitoring "If you can measure that of which you speak and can express it by a  number, you know something of your subject; but if you cannot measure  it, your knowledge is meager and unsatisfactory." ~Lord Kelvin No results to show will results in unwillingness to invest.

4. European reliance on energy efficiency

5. The need for monitoring It forces one to establish a baseline and a protocol of measurement Essential elements based on International Performance Measurement and Verification Protocol (IPMVP) Solid statistical sampling Advanced engineering models Empirical measurements of real activities

6. The need for monitoring (approaches) Bottom-up: Good for the evaluation of specific project/program achievements, but expensive Top-down: Inexpensive, but does not give answer on the root cause of improvements Affordability of monitoring is crucial

7. The need for monitoring (three issues to solve) Clear Energy Efficiency Goals Measurement Methodology Evaluation Definitions See also: Measurement is critical to understanding, Palenc 2010, J.L. Stoops, R.A. Rooth

8. Example 1 Energy performance standard versus actual energy consumption

9. Example 2: New neighbour- hood with district heating

10. Zuidbroek

11. Example 2: Dwellings connected to DH

12. Example 2: Monitoring Results 17000 GJ heat annually, enough for 530 dwellings?)

13. Example 2: Heat demand dwellings Average is 32 GJ/(dwelling*year) Equals about 1000 m3 natural gas

14. Example 2: District heating results raw data

15. Example 2: District heating summary 2010 • 30% more natural gas consumption than reference situation with high efficiency boilers in every house • Reasons: • 51% heat loss because of start-up phase heating grid (<25% expected when complete) • Biofuel peak boiler not yet in place (2.5 MW expected by end of 2011 • Average 550 kW instead of 1 MW of biogas related heat

16. Example 2: expected end situation 1 MWth biogas, 2,5 MWth woodchips, 2500 dwellings, 25% losses

17. Example 2: Expected end situation summary and conclusions • Summary: • More than 20% better EPC for 2500 dwellings • Conclusions for this example: • Building crisis delayed reaching of expected situation • Heat losses become a more and more important issue for modern housing districts • Dutch approach of having green heat affecting the EPC results in a situation where the number of dwellings connected affects the registered performance

18. Conclusions The two examples prove the need for monitoring as a means to redirect developments and testing of assumptions Experience shows that ease of access to data should be improved, while respecting privacy issues Better regulation of data access could dramatically reduce cost of bottom-up approach monitoring and therefore acceleration of the learning curve Without more attention to monitoring, the EU will probably not reach its energy efficiency goals.