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Rip Currents-- Killer Currents Jim Lushine

Rip Currents-- Killer Currents Jim Lushine. Outline of Presentation. Rip Current Fatalities Data Forecasting Verification NWS Products Future Work. Rip Current Fatalities. Southeast Florida Rip Current Fatalities. Florida Rip Current Fatalities.

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Rip Currents-- Killer Currents Jim Lushine

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  1. Rip Currents--Killer Currents Jim Lushine

  2. Outline of Presentation • Rip Current Fatalities • Data • Forecasting • Verification • NWS Products • Future Work

  3. Rip Current Fatalities

  4. Southeast Florida Rip Current Fatalities

  5. Florida Rip Current Fatalities

  6. Florida Weather-related Fatalities1989-2003

  7. United States Rip Current Fatalities

  8. Weather-related Formation Factors 1. Local Gradient Wind 2. Swell

  9. Non-Weather-related Formation Factors • Time of Low Tide* • Persistence • Tidal Currents • Deep Water Currents (e.g. Gulf Stream) • Seismological Factors • *SE Florida Coast

  10. Data

  11. Florida Marine Observations

  12. Four Factors in Forecasting Rip Currents

  13. Wind Factor

  14. Gradient Wind vs Rip Current Fatalities along SE Florida Coast

  15. Gradient Wind vs Non-Rip Current Fatalities along SE Florida Coast

  16. Sea Breeze Effect

  17. Convective Wind Initiation

  18. Swell Factor

  19. Swell Height* vs Rip Currents • <2 Feet---No effect on rip currents • 2-7 Feet---Mdt Risk of rip currents • >7 Feet---High Risk of rip currents • *Swell Period also important

  20. Tidal Factor

  21. Faster Rip Current near Low Tide

  22. Tidal Variation of Fatalities

  23. Weaker Swimmers Can go Farther Offshore?

  24. Persistence Factor

  25. Days Between Initiation of Rip Currents and the First Fatality

  26. Gradient Winds vs Residual Rip Current Fatalities in SE Florida

  27. Beach Patrol Rescue Reports

  28. Daily Rip Current Risk 1=Low 2=Moderate 3=High

  29. Verification

  30. NWS Rip Current-Related Products • Surf Forecast • Hazardous Weather Outlook • Marine Weather Statement • Zone Forecasts (Headlines)

  31. Decision to Include in ZFP • Weekday vs Weekend/Holiday • Improving Weather from yesterday • Change in surf conditions from yesterday • Low Tide in the afternoon

  32. Future Work

  33. Tidal Variation of Fatalities= Hourly Rip Current Risk?

  34. Beach Geomorphology • Renourishment • Type of Sand • Persistence of Rip Channels

  35. Upcoming Rip Current Events • Technical Workshop (April 6-7, 2004) • NWS Media Event (May 24, 2004) • FACVB meeting (June 10, 2004) • COMET Module (Summer 2004)

  36. Florida’s Uniform Flag Warning System

  37. The End

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