1 / 24

HIV/AIDS in the Houston Community

HIV/AIDS in the Houston Community. Rukiya Middleton Chelscie Irby Loren Runnels April 28, 2005. AIDS Cases 1989. AIDS Cases 1997. Houston Background. HIV/AIDS has killed more than 58,000 Houstonians African Americans currently consist of more than 50% of the total AIDS population

ophira
Download Presentation

HIV/AIDS in the Houston Community

An Image/Link below is provided (as is) to download presentation Download Policy: Content on the Website is provided to you AS IS for your information and personal use and may not be sold / licensed / shared on other websites without getting consent from its author. Content is provided to you AS IS for your information and personal use only. Download presentation by click this link. While downloading, if for some reason you are not able to download a presentation, the publisher may have deleted the file from their server. During download, if you can't get a presentation, the file might be deleted by the publisher.

E N D

Presentation Transcript

  1. HIV/AIDS in the Houston Community Rukiya Middleton Chelscie Irby Loren Runnels April 28, 2005

  2. AIDS Cases 1989

  3. AIDS Cases 1997

  4. Houston Background • HIV/AIDS has killed more than 58,000 Houstonians • African Americans currently consist of more than 50% of the total AIDS population • African American women consist of 75% of the current female AIDS population

  5. Background Data Awareness has decreased AIDS in 30 year olds however teenagers have a constant number of AIDS cases per year

  6. AIDS Cases by Gender

  7. AIDS Cases by Race

  8. Blacks Dominate the AIDS Population

  9. Prevention Background • Most of the AIDS problem comes from people with many sexual partners • Even married people may contract HIV/AIDS if one spouse continues to have multiple sexual partners. • Black females think that they are not at risk

  10. Goals • Our specific aims are two fold: • Fit the model data to HIV/AIDS Surveillance Data • Use this deterministic model fit with a backtracking method to predict future HIV/AIDS dynamics • Also we will: • Motivatesocial policy as a valuable method for controlling HIV/AIDS transmission • Bring AWARENESS to the African American community who are disproportionately infected with HIV/AIDS

  11. HIV/AIDS Literature Parameter Estimate Parameters i.e. infection rate Transmission Model (Differential Equations) Loop until match model vs. reported values Predicted Populations Least Squares Fit Of HIV/AIDS Data Solve Using Forward Euler Method • This chart represents steps taken to compose AIDS model

  12. HIV/AIDS Literature • Government websites i.e. CDC, Department of Health, National Health Institute • Peer-review journals i.e. AIDS, JAMA • Pubmed website • Health and Human Services Department in Houston

  13. Components of Our Model • Parameters • Infection rate • Death rate • Birth rate • Migration rate • Poulations • Race • Gender • Sexual Preference

  14. Transmission Model • Differential equations are just rate of change • They can predict future population changes • We solve the equation using Forward Euler

  15. Forward Euler • Uses the slope to determine the next year’s population

  16. Matlab • Forward Euler implemented in Matlab • Matlab is a mathematical programming tool • We wrote a program in Matlab that predicted future AIDS populations

  17. Least Squares Fit • Compare the results of the model for each year to the actual data • Adjust the parameters to better fit the model results to the actual results

  18. Results Figure 1: PREVALENCE of HIV/AIDS. Number of persons living with HIV/AIDS by race in Harris County (1986-1991).

  19. Results, cont. Figure 2: INCIDENCE of HIV/AIDS. Number of cases diagnosed per year of HIV/AIDS in Harris County (1992-2001).

  20. Future Work • Fit our model to prevalence data • Predict future population dynamics • Infer possible policy changes to best deal with HIV/AIDS • Increase education • Increase access to protection • Increase abstinence awareness

  21. Bibliography • HIV/AIDS Surveillance, (March 31, 2005), http://www.cdc.gov/hiv/stats/hasrsupp.htm • AIDS Public Information Data Set, (March 14, 2005), http://www.cdc.gov/hiv/software/apids/apidsman.htm • Modeling HIV Transmission and AIDS in the United States, By Herbert W. Hethcote and James W. Van Ark http://biotech.law.lsu.edu/cphl/Models/aids/

  22. The road to research • Essay application • Weekly instruction-1st Semester • Introduced to Game Theory • Introduced to Matlab • Read chapters from book on Game Theory • Bi-weekly instruction-2nd Semester • Decided on research topic (AIDS) • Found source material online • Wrote computer program to simulate the spread of AIDS in Houston • Made and competed in a poster session with Rice college students

  23. Payoff • The Worthing/Rice experience • College experience • Increased awareness of HIV/AIDS • Learned better research techniques • Unexpected Benefits • Resume building • Potential scholarships • Working with college students

  24. Acknowledgements We would like to give special thanks to : Ms. Golia Howard Dr. Steve Cox Also like to thank: Fernando Acosta Jay Raol Nithin Rajan Zach Kilpatrick Andre T. Mosley Finally, Thanks to Our Parents

More Related