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Links of the Mediterranean Oscillation to mid-latitude and tropical climate dynamics

Links of the Mediterranean Oscillation to mid-latitude and tropical climate dynamics Jucundus Jacobeit, Stephanie Seubert, Armin Dünkeloh University of Augsburg. Correlations of the Mediterranean annual mean 500 hPa geopotential heigths with those of Algiers

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Links of the Mediterranean Oscillation to mid-latitude and tropical climate dynamics

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  1. Links of the Mediterranean Oscillation to mid-latitude and tropical climate dynamics Jucundus Jacobeit, Stephanie Seubert, Armin Dünkeloh University of Augsburg

  2. Correlations of the Mediterranean annual mean 500 hPa geopotential heigths with those of Algiers (inside the dotted lines: statistically significant at the 95% level of confidence) + _ Conte et al. 1989

  3. Pattern of the 500 hPa heights at the stations of Algiers and Cairo (8th order polynominal smoothing and superimposed linear trend) Cairo 500 hPa (m) Algiers Conte et al. 1989

  4. Pattern of the 500 hPa heights at the stations of Algiers and Cairo (with superimposed linear trend and 8th order polynominal smoothing) Palutikof 2003 (after Conte et al. 1989)

  5. Mediterranean Oscillation Index Conte et al. 1989

  6. Mediterranean Oscillation Index (Conte et al. 1989): Difference of normalized geop. height anomalies at Algiers and Cairo Mediterranean Pressure Index (Palutikof 2003): Difference of normalized pressure anomalies at Gibraltar and Lod Mediterranean Circulation Index (Brunetti et al. 2002): Difference of normalized pressure anomalies at Marseille and Jerusalem

  7. Luterbacher et al. 2002: Objectively reconstructed North-Atlantic-European grids of SLP and 500 hPa geopotential heights, early versions of temperature and rainfall grids since 1659 with monthly resolution

  8. MO since 1660 winter (DJF) Algiers/ Cairo Gibraltar/ Lod Marseille/ Jerusalem

  9. Representation of the MO by large-scale circulation patterns

  10. 500 hPa level 20.1% 1000 hPa level ONDJFM 1948-98 r = 0.60 with AO r = 0.72 with NAO Precipitation 30.4% first canonical correlation patterns for winter r ~ 0.80 with various MO indices Dünkeloh & Jacobeit 2003

  11. r = 0.92 Smoothed time coefficients of thefirst canonical correlation patterns for winter Dünkeloh & Jacobeit 2003

  12. SLP EV = 21.1% first canonical correlation patterns winter (DJF) 1660-1990 Precipitation EV = 14.6%

  13. 500 hPa EV = 11.7% r = 0.50 with NAO first canonical correlation patterns for winter (DJF) 1660-1990 r ~ 0.7 with various MO indices Precipitation EV = 13.4%

  14. Smoothed time coefficients of the first canonical correlation patterns r = 0.89 winter (DJF) 1660-1990

  15. spring (AM) 1000 hPa level 500 hPa level r = 0.85 p = 0.000 EVgpot = 10.5 % EVprec = 19.8 % precipitation second canonical correlation patterns r = 0.55 with NAO r ~ 0.5/0.6 with various MO indices Dünkeloh & Jacobeit 2003

  16. r= 0.85 Smoothed time coefficients of thesecond canonical correlation patterns for spring Dünkeloh & Jacobeit 2003

  17. summer (JJAS) 500 hPa level 1000 hPa level r = 0.67 p = 0.000 EVgpot = 12.2 % EVprec = 10.1 % precipitation second canonical correlation patterns r = 0.45 with NAO r < 0.4 with various MO indices Dünkeloh & Jacobeit 2003

  18. r= 0.67 Smoothed time coefficients of thesecond canonical correlation patterns for summer Dünkeloh & Jacobeit 2003

  19. 500 hPa third canonical correlation patterns summer (JJAS) 1660-1990 Precipitation

  20. Seasonal correlation coefficients between NAO and MO: Winter: 0.72 Spring: 0.37 Summer: (-0.13) Autumn: 0.30 (with Gibraltar/Lod, from Palutikof 2003)

  21. Conclusions Part I: The MO is strongly linked to the NAO during winter, this relationship fades away towards summer and recovers afterwards in terms of canonical correlation patterns, the MO patterns show - from winter to summer - a gradual weakening with respect to CC coefficients and % of explained rainfall variances within this seasonal sequence, the MO is primarily an upper-level phenomenon

  22. Teleconnection studies (StephanieSeubert): • March to November • 1951-2000 • Domain: 20°S – 70°N, 90°W – 150°E

  23. Diagram of seasonal sections for the period March to November: 45 seasonal sections including 1-month up to 9-month sections Current number of seasonal section Length of seasonal section (number of months) Starting month of seasonal section

  24. Teleconnection - PCA Input variables:correlation maps of 15 regional prec-indices and 45 seasonal sections cases:grid points 5 levels 13589 1000 hPA 850 hPA500 hPA250 hPA 100 hPA ... 13589 Extraction of 9 teleconnection PCs Varimax-rotated, multi-level PCA: Scores: Major teleconnection patterns Loadings: Correlation coefficients between PC-Scores and correlation maps

  25. EV = 23 % Leading teleconnection mode (TPC 1) 250 hPA 500 hPA 1000 hPA

  26. Loadings of TPC 1for the 15 prec.-indicesand the 45 seasonal sections (α=0.01)

  27. Affinities between ENSO and the MO (JJAS) Iberian Peninsula Eastern Medit. Correlations with 250 hPa level MOI NINO3.4 3 TPC 1

  28. Pearson – Correlationbetween MOI and NINO3.4 -0.73 for JJAS

  29. Pearson – Correlations for all the 45 seasonal sections between NINO3.4 and different indices of the MO

  30. 1000 hPa 500 hPa Algiers/ Cairo Gibraltar/ Lod Marseille/ Jerusalem

  31. Correlations of MOI (500) with geopotential heights 1000 hPa 250 hPa 850 Pa 100 hPa 500 hPa JJASO

  32. Correlations of MOI (1000) with geopotential heights 250 hPa 1000 hPa 850 Pa 100 hPa 500 hPa JJASO

  33. Correlations of NINO 3.4 – index with geopotential heights 1000 hPa 250 hPa 850 Pa 100 hPa 500 hPa JJASO

  34. Conclusions Part II: There are indications for ENSO impacts on the MO: with negative sign for late summer/early autumn with positive sign for spring Opposite centres in the western and the eastern Mediterranean are confined to the lower troposphere, in the upper troposphere there is a change of sign above the eastern Mediterranean

  35. Links of the Mediterranean Oscillation to mid-latitude and tropical climate dynamics Jucundus Jacobeit, Stephanie Seubert, Armin Dünkeloh University of Augsburg

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