Probabilistic Technology Initiative for NASA

1. Probabilistic Technology Initiative for NASA Pam Caruso Technical Assistant to the Director, Engineering NASA/Marshall Space Flight Center Presented to the Conference on Quality in the Space and Defense Industries Cape Canaveral, Florida March 2008

2. The Vision for Space Exploration After the completion of the International Space Station and the retirement the shuttle fleet by 2010, NASA will rely on the Constellation Program to meet its vision. New techniques need to be pioneered in the Program in order to satisfy this vision in a safe and cost effective manner. The Vision for Space Exploration calls for humans to return to the moon by the end of the next decade, paving the way for eventual journeys to Mars and beyond.

3. NASA Strategic Goals 1. Fly the Shuttle as safely as possible until its retirement, not later than 2010. 2. Complete the International Space Station in a manner consistent with NASA’s International Partner commitments and the needs of human exploration. 3. Develop a balanced overall program of science, exploration, and aeronautics consistent with the redirection of the human spaceflight program to focus on exploration. 4. Bring a new Crew Exploration Vehicle into service as soon as possible after Shuttle retirement. 5. Encourage the pursuit of appropriate partnerships with the emerging commercial space sector. 6. Establish a lunar return program having the maximum possible utility for later missions to Mars and other destinations. NASA is Shifting Gears Big Time

4. 2008 Technical Excellence Initiative • The NASA Office of the Chief Engineer awarded a proposal for Probabilistic Technology Initiative as part of their Technical Excellence Initiative • Marshall Space Flight Center is the lead for the effort with participation from all of the other NASA Centers • One year effort and will be a benchmarking for how Probabilistic Technologies can be used to support the design of the next vehicles

5. Probabilistic Technology Initiative • The effort will really heavily on what the Army has already accomplished with their Probabilistic Technologies • We will spend the first month or two of the effort determining an engineering issue from Ares 1 to focus on • This will be a team effort with all the NASA Centers and with the Army to fully vet the selection of the focus design effort • We will work with the Army to help us provide Probabilistic Technology Applications to the focused design effort • If we are successful, we will show the value to NASA of utilizing Probabilistic Technologies into future design If we are successful, we will demonstrate to NASA the advantages of utilizing Probabilistic Technologies in design of future architectures and elements.