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Hydrology Lab Overview George Smith July 13, 2004

Hydrology Lab Overview George Smith July 13, 2004. Work Areas in the Hydro Lab. New NWSRFS software architecture (CHPS) Overall ensemble forecast research & tools AWIPS Regular Releases (3.1, 3.3, 4.0, 4.x, 5, 6) - NWSRFS enhancements, WHFS enhancements, IHFS DB conversion (Postgres)

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Hydrology Lab Overview George Smith July 13, 2004

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  1. Hydrology Lab Overview George Smith July 13, 2004

  2. Work Areas in the Hydro Lab • New NWSRFS software architecture (CHPS) • Overall ensemble forecast research & tools • AWIPS Regular Releases (3.1, 3.3, 4.0, 4.x, 5, 6) • - NWSRFS enhancements, WHFS enhancements, IHFS DB conversion (Postgres) • HSD Bug List & Consultation • Precipitation Frequency Analysis • HADS • Hydromet Forcing • - PE estimates, gauge QC, prob. QPE, NEXRAD improvements, RCA/CSSA, temperature forcing • Distributed Hydrologic Modeling • - Frozen ground, large scale hydro modeling DHMS project, DMIP2, Flash flood stat distributed hydrologic model, soil parameters, calibration • River Mechanics models/tools • - DamCrest/DamAT, FLDVIEW/FLDXS, FLDAT, FLDWAV/SHRT, coastal river modeling, other GIS • OHD/NSSL collaborations • - QPESUMS evals, QPE-to-estuary modeling, NMQ, Satellite QPE, Dual Polarization

  3. Outline • Hydrologic Operational Service Improvement Process • OHD End-to-end Projects • Distributed Hydrologic Modeling • Range Correction Algorithm • FLDWAV Update for FLDVIEW • Probabilistic QPF/QTF • Site Specific (add SAC-SMA) • Precipitation Frequency Studies • NWS Integrated Water Science

  4. Hydrologic Operations & Service Improvement Process (HOSIP) Status • Definition & Implementation of a Requirements-based Process that Ensures Field Review of Science Infusion and Software Engineering Projects • Basic Process and Controls Defined • Implementation on Selected Projects • Distributed Hydrologic Modeling System • Statement of Need (SON) & Concept of Operations (CONOPS) Developed • Operational Requirements (ORD) Developed & Field Review Scheduled • Flood Mapping • SON, CONOPS, & ORD Developed & Field Review Underway • WSR88D Range Correction Algorithm • SON, CONOPS, ORD • RFC Forecast Verification Re-host on the RAX • Requirements analysis, design specifications, reviews, system/user documentation • Automated Tool Set Adaptation to Scientific Process • Adapting Software Engineering Tools to Streamline Development • Requirements Definition Before Development Activities

  5. HOSIP Plans • Develop & Implement Quality Assurance Procedures • Institutionalize HOSIP • Use on All Projects • Ensure Field Review & Verification of Projects • Develop Support Documentation in Accordance with Development Plans • Develop Common Plans & Plan Review Procedures • Tie to Quad Charts • Tie to NOAA & NWS Strategic Plans • Complete Adaptation of Automated Tools to HOSIP • Continue to Coordinate with NWS OSIP

  6. Distributed Hydrologic Modeling System (DHMS) Status • Collaborated with ABRFC and a contractor (Apex) to develop DHMS 1.0, a prototype operational distributed hydrologic modeling system, to help define functional requirements for DHMS 2.0 (the AWIPS-ready version) • Compiled ABRFC and WGRFC feedback on DHMS 2.0 functional requirements after 4 months of operational testing • Conducted a software engineering functional requirements analysis using the “use-case” approach • Defined Users (8)  Use Cases (26)  Functional Requirements (150) • Initiated a peer review of the derived use cases and functional requirements

  7. DHMS Future Work • Finish Research and Analysis, HOSIP Stage 3 • Complete requirements review to validate, refine, and prioritize functional requirements • OHD, OCWWS/HSD, ABRFC, WGRFC • Get OHD/HL approval to move to HOSIP stage 4 • Conduct Operational Development, HOSIP Stage 4 • Derive system level requirements (technical/architectural) • Design DHMS • Design overall DHMS • Take advantage of CHPS where possible • Design initial components for DHMS 2.0 • Create test plans/procedures for DHMS 2.0 • Develop and Test DHMS 2.0 • Submit DHMS 2.0 to AWIPS

  8. Range Correction Algorithm (RCA) Project Status Field evaluation at 6 WFOs completed on June 11: • Charleston, WV; Portland, OR; Norman, OK; Pleasant Hill, MO; Minneapolis, MN; Pittsburgh, PA • Level II data delivered from WFOs to clone RPG systems at NWSHQ; web interface provided for field participants to review data • Purpose of field evaluation: • to validate science using real-time data from NWS sites around the nation • to solicit feedback from operational forecasters • Results: • Overall impression: positive • Some minor adjustments in logic needed to take into account unforeseen situations Formal project documentation underway: • Concept of operations (1st draft complete) • Operational Requirements definition • Scientific Algorithm description Independent Validation & Verification (IV&V) of science at Radar Operations Center (ROC) System resource issue: • ROC engineering analysis says software consumes too much cpu • HSEB NEXRAD Development Group currently focusing on improving source code efficiency

  9. RCA Project Plans Schedule delays: • Postpone from AWIPS OB6 to OB7 (pending outcome of OB6 AWIPS SREC) • Postpone from RPG Build 8 to Build 9 (system resource issues requires more effort) • Deploy Spring 2006 July 2004: ROC completes IV&V July 2004: Presentation to NEXRAD Technical Advisory Committee (TAC): • committee to review field evaluation results and cost benefit • committee to provide recommendation for proceeding to operational implementation August 2004: • Develop strategy for improving system resource usage • Revise project plan October 2004: presentation to NEXRAD System Recommendation Evaluation Committee (SREC) for RPG Build assignment

  10. FLDWAV Update for FLDVIEW Project Status • Accomplishments: • Incorporated the features of the HSMB Prototype FLDWAV into the OB4 baseline. • Allowing FLDVIEW input data to be generated by baseline FLDWAV • Added significant regression test cases for FLDWAV to AWIPS software baseline. • Formalized a process to migrate FLDWAV capabilities to the AWIPS baseline. • Decreasing the time it takes for Prototype features to get into the baseline (specific process steps derived from HOSIP)

  11. FLDWAV Update for FLDVIEW Project Plans • Underway: • Adding the capability to generate multi-scenario FLDVIEW input to the OB5 baseline via the FLDWAV Migration Process. • Wrap-up FLDWAV Update Project. • Further River Mechanics tasks will be part a new end-to-end projects. • Implement Simplified Hydraulic Routing Technique (SHRT). • Put FLDVIEW into AWIPS.

  12. PQPF-PQTF Project Status • Within HOSIP Stage 3, aims at enhancing the Ensemble Pre-Processor of the ESP system to: • Produce seamless probabilistic forecasts for precipitation and temperature for all lead times (1 hour to 1 year) • Incorporate skill of deterministic forecasts (QPF/QTF), correct forecast bias, and account for forecast uncertainty • Provide an interim step until global/regional ensembles are skillful enough to be used directly • Current status: • Integrated new science for short-term (days 1-5) using the RFC QPF/QTF • Unified the processes for all lead times (including days 1-365 climate adjustments from NCEP/CPC) • Set up prototype at 3 demo RFCs for testing and feedback • Developed a probabilistic verification program to do retrospective verification of short-term PQPF/PQTF

  13. PQPF-PQTF Project Future Work • Ensemble generation: • Enhance short-term functionality: integrate HPC QPF if no RFC QPF available, improve PQTF methodology • Enhance medium-term functionality : include procedures for incorporating CPC days 6-14 forecasts • Ensemble calibration: • Enhance short-term calibration programs • Deliver a calibration prototype for all lead times • Ensemble verification: • Integrate more diagnosis measures • Deliver a probabilistic verification program for short- and medium-term PQPF/PQTF • Communication: • Papers to present short-term methodology and verification results • Experience shared with other global/regional ensemble projects • Plan to move ensemble pre-processor components through operational development to deployment

  14. Site Specific Status • AWIPS OB4 – to be deployed September, 2004 • Added SAC-SMA rainfall-runoff model, which requires • Parameter and state data transfer from RFC • Significant RFC involvement for calibration and state maintenance • Still includes MBRFC API • Provides graphical editing of MAP, with immediate forecast hydrograph recalculation and display • OB4/ Field Test Sites • SERFC/SJU, MBRFC, NWRFC pending • End Site Specific SAC-SMA Project

  15. Precipitation Frequency Studies

  16. Precipitation Frequency Estimates • Durations • 5 minutes to 60 days • Annual Exceedance Probabilities • 1 in 2 to 1 in 1000 • Annual Maximum and Partial Duration Results • High Resolution Spatial Estimates • 30 arc second • Confidence Limits • upper and lower 90%

  17. Precip Frequency Products & Delivery • Web Based Delivery • “Precipitation Frequency Data Server” • response is very favorable • High Quality Maps Produced Using GIS • Interactive Tables and Charts • Base Grids • Seasonality • Areal Reduction Factors • Temporal Distributions • Documentation

  18. Example map from Precipitation Frequency Data Server hdsc.nws.noaa.gov/hdsc/pfds/

  19. NWS Integrated Water Science Planning • Objective • Carry out a wide-ranging assessment of NWS water science and technology development necessary to implement a comprehensive suite of high-resolution digital hydrology and water resources analysis and forecast products in the next 5 to 10 years • Activities (Apr through Aug) • Review relevant NWS water science activities by OHD/HL, OCWWS/NOHRSC, NCEP/EMC, and RFCs • Assess whether current activities can support efficient and effective delivery of new science for operational implementation of high-resolution gridded water resources products, and if the ongoing R&D efforts are adequate to overcome the foremost science challenges in meeting the objective • Recommend approaches to maximize the strengths of each NWS water science component with respect to interactions with other NOAA freshwater researchers and with the external community to streamline science-to-operations paths in meeting the objective • Deliverable (end of Aug) • An executable plan compatible with the NWS Science and Technology Infusion Plan • Membership (Gary Carter, Mentor) • D.-J. Seo (OHD/HL), Don Cline (OCWWS/NOHRSC), Ken Mitchell (NCEP/EMC), Jiayu Zhou (OST), Rob Hartman (RFC)

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