Future demands on the local state

1. Future demands on the local state Johnny Kelleher Tavistock Institute, London

2. The DCLG project “A review of what society is likely to be like in 2015 and its implications for local government and local governance.”

3. Future demands • Drivers of change and pressures on government • Society in 2015: the building blocks • The key functions of local governance in 2015 • Some personal reflections drawing on the project

4. Major drivers of change • Globalisation creates greater competition • Knowledge and service sectors dominate • More & more varied households • Diverging educational attainment • Extreme weather events • Pressures on land use • Demand for ‘clean solutions’ • More elderly and disabled • Greater difference within and between areas • Rising expectations of quality of life • All pervasive ICT • Conflict around service, privacy and security • New forms of politics

5. Pressures on Government fiscal & taxation; education & skills; employment & productivity; environment & habitat; health, public health & social services; housing & land use; leisure culture & media; localities and neighbourhoods; public order, justice and security; social protection & benefits; trade & industry; transport & travel;

6. Society in 2015 Pulling together all the views we have collected, we have identified 4 building blocks of society in 2015: • More households and more varied types of household; • A more diverse society with, for example, more elderly and more disabled people, wider differences in wealth and ethnic divides; • Continued technological development and global change [with a particular impact on those with poor educational attainment]; • More “extreme” weather and growing environmental pressures.

7. More households and more varied types of household

8. Household types and size, England UK households Source: ONS

9. Population by age

10. A more diverse society with, for example, more elderly and more disabled people, wider differences in household wealth and ethnic divides;

11. Text Only Search Home HOME Regulator's expenditure allowances and Network Rail's March, June and September forecasts (£ million) TOP OF PAGE INFORMATION POLICY Site map On this site Advanced Search Glossary FAQ News & publications Links About the ORR Vacancies About the railway Contact us Network operation FOI Monitoring Network Rail Licensing & access International regulation Making & investigating complaints Public register Appeals Households by religious affiliation Source: ODPM

12. Quality of life by region The Variation in Quality of Life Factors Across the English Regions Source: DEFRA

13. Continued technological development and global economic change

14. Text Only Search Home HOME Regulator's expenditure allowances and Network Rail's March, June and September forecasts (£ million) TOP OF PAGE INFORMATION POLICY Site map On this site Advanced Search Glossary FAQ News & publications Links About the ORR Vacancies About the railway Contact us Network operation FOI Monitoring Network Rail Licensing & access International regulation Making & investigating complaints Public register Appeals Economicallyactive by qualification level Economically Active Population

15. Text Only Search Home HOME Regulator's expenditure allowances and Network Rail's March, June and September forecasts (£ million) TOP OF PAGE INFORMATION POLICY Site map On this site Advanced Search Glossary FAQ News & publications Links About the ORR Vacancies About the railway Contact us Network operation FOI Monitoring Network Rail Licensing & access International regulation Making & investigating complaints Public register Appeals Western markets less significant in 2015 Population 2015, Ranked China 1 India 2 USA 3 Indonesia 4 Pakistan 5 Japan 10 Germany 17 France 23 UK 24 Italy 25 1409.1 M 1211.7 M 310.8 M 251.8 M 224.5 M 125.8 M 82.1 M 60.2 M 59.0 M 54.6 M 3 4 5 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 0 1 2 6 7 8 Hundreds of Millions Source: UN, Economist In 2015 the EU, USA and Japan combined will equal less than half the Chinese population

16. More extreme weather and growing environmental pressures

17. Text Only Search Home HOME Regulator's expenditure allowances and Network Rail's March, June and September forecasts (£ million) TOP OF PAGE INFORMATION POLICY Site map On this site Advanced Search Glossary FAQ News & publications Links About the ORR Vacancies About the railway Contact us Network operation FOI Monitoring Network Rail Licensing & access International regulation Making & investigating complaints Public register Appeals Waste Waste Arisings and Management Source: DEFRA and others

18. Text Only Search Home HOME Regulator's expenditure allowances and Network Rail's March, June and September forecasts (£ million) TOP OF PAGE INFORMATION POLICY Site map On this site Advanced Search Glossary FAQ News & publications Links About the ORR Vacancies About the railway Contact us Network operation FOI Monitoring Network Rail Licensing & access International regulation Making & investigating complaints Public register Appeals Temperatures Change in summer temperature for the 2020s, 2050s and 2080s for low emissions and high emissions scenarios Source: UK Climate Impacts Programme

19. Functions of local governance Five core tasks: • Coping with stark differences within and between communities (taking choices about how to respond to the differences within and between communities); • Caring for a significant proportion of the population (for example older people and those with who do not have the skills to prosper in the changing economy);

20. Functions of local governance • Controlling and regulating human and physical flows (from ASBOs to traffic, from access to town centres to drink and entertainment licensing); • Promoting economic growth and performance (including making a reality of lifelong learning in areas sufferent from economic collapse); • Strategic marketing (in many areas action by individuals will be as important as action by the state – eg waste recycling).

21. Functions of local governance These all reinforce the need for “joined up government” and led to two further tasks for local governance: • Brokering, marshalling and relationship building between key actors; • Planning and mobilising local resources.

22. Functions of local governance Community leadership crucial to: • Build acceptance of difference and responses to it; • Secure ownership of regulation; • Achieve changes in behaviour. It hinges on two further tasks: • Providing and making complex information transparent and accessible • Representation of the locality and community

23. Reflections Scale: • The importance of the conurbation/sub-region; • Need to ensure that neighbourhood structures don’t entrench inequalities; • The will always be difficult boundaries; no single arrangement will suit everyone: the challenge is how to manage boundaries.

24. Reflections The key question: “Given the trends we have identified, and in particular the development of more acute differences within and between communities, which approach is most likely to ensure that the different needs of different groups are met – a strong focus on national minimum standards, or more scope for local decision-making to respond to the different needs of different groups?”

25. Reflections “It’s not what you do it’s the way you do it” High quality local political leadership key to: • Securing legitimacy for difficult decisions; • Promoting changes in behaviour; • Co-ordinating local players and resources. Need a more coherent framework for allocating responsibility for the key locally delivered public services

26. Reflections • Joined up government will become more rather than less important over the next ten years; • To meet the challenges that society is likely to face greater citizen engagement with the structures of local governance will be essential, not simply desirable; • Importance of strategic choice within government.

27. Some implications for C&Y • Skills and education • Well being (including health) • Rights and diversity • Social regulation