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June 2010

Proximity Talks: What’s Next?. June 2010. York University. The Reut Institute. Vision 21st Century Zionism Mission Significant & Substantive Impact Strategy Be Israel's Primary Resource for Decision-Support Grow Israel's Future Strategists. Israel’s Challenge: Balancing Clash of Logics.

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June 2010

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  1. Proximity Talks: What’s Next? June 2010 York University

  2. The Reut Institute Vision 21st Century Zionism Mission Significant & Substantive Impact Strategy Be Israel's Primary Resource for Decision-Support Grow Israel's Future Strategists

  3. Israel’s Challenge: Balancing Clash of Logics What is the main threat from the Palestinians? IL Stays: Political Threat Political Logic: Leave Military Logic: Stay IL Leaves: Security Threat Demographic Burden Militarized PL State Erosion of 2SS Foreign forces using PL Logic of Implosion Terrorism and Rocket fire

  4. Palestinians: Frustration & the Search for Strategy PL Disenchantment with Political Process Negotiation by Proxy Fayyad’s State Building Economic Measures vs. Israel ‘White’ Intifada

  5. Obama Administration: Raising Bar Too High? The Middle East peace process has not moved forward. And I think it's fair to say that for all our efforts at early engagement, it is not where I want it to be…If we had anticipated some of these political problems on both sides earlier, we might not have raised expectations as high Arab States: Normalization Israel: Settlement Freeze Palestinians: Greater Security / End Incitement Negotiations Leading to Permanent Status Agreement within 2 Years

  6. The Structure of the Political Process How to reach Permanent Status? Permanent Status (Definition): • End of Israeli Responsibility • A Palestinian State alongside IL • Historical Issues: agreed resolution

  7. How to end control over the Palestinians? Permanent Agreement Palestinian State First (agreed) End of Conflict, Finality of Claims PSPB(Return to Roadmap) First Agreement, then PL State 2nd Phase: PSPB 3rd Phase: PSA Annapolis and Oslo The Road Map

  8. Package Agreement: Structural Issues Serious Disagreements on Historic Issues + Security Constitutional Crisis: Abbas lacks Legitimacy Increasing Division between Gaza & WB PL Division IL Govt. Weakness No ZOPA Shaky Center Right Coalition PSA

  9. PSPB Approach: Structural Problems Hamas may support: Part of Phased Plan; Fatah Not a Partner Growing Split Between Gaza & WB How Will the Agreement be Ratified? Palestinian Split No ZOPA No Palestinian Ratification means No Israeli Ratification An Unratified Agreement May Bring About PA Collapse PSPB

  10. Vacuum Filled by Other Suggestions Status Quo Promotes 1SS Economic Peace Unacceptable Obama Parameters Unilateral Recognition Arab Peace Initiative Borders First Agreed PSPB: No Partner PSA Unobtainable

  11. How to end control over the Palestinians? Permanent Agreement Palestinian State First (agreed) Palestinian State First (de-facto) End of Conflict, Finality of Claims PSPB(Return to Roadmap) No Agreement: Upgrading the PA First Agreement, then PL State 2nd Phase: PSPB 3rd Phase: PSA Systematic Buildup; PL State; Permanent Agreement Building PL State bypasses Constitutional Crisis

  12. How to Advance the Creation of a State? Gestures Strengthen PA Upgrade PA Only Israel Can ‘Upgrade’ the PA Consolidating the Status of Moderate Forces Inside the System Without Strengthening the PA Actions aimed at strengthening PA’s powers & authorities of within framework of existing agreements. Systematically transferring powers & authorities above those that exist by virtue of the Interim Agreement Remove Checkpoints, Ease Restrictions, Promote Investment Power to Establish Consulates Abroad, Issuing Currency Dayton and Blair’s Actions for Restoring the Palestinian Police

  13. To Lead or be Led? That is the Question Without a Plan Israel gets Led With a Plan, Israel Leads If Israel Wants to Lead – it needs a New Political Strategy If wants to be Led - Not at Expense of ‘Special Relations’

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