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Model Fit Analysis E1b1a & R1b Figures 1-6

Visualization of model fit to observed data for E1b1a & R1b using rectangular units in various colors. Each represents good, intermediate, or poor fit. Analysis based on 1,000 simulations. Grid shows expansion times and lengths. Black squares indicate TMRCA >20,000 or 15,000 years ago.

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Model Fit Analysis E1b1a & R1b Figures 1-6

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  1. Length of Expansion in Years

  2. Supplementary Figure 1. Fit between model and observed data – E1b1a. The color of each of the smallest rectangular units indicates the value of AND measuring the fit between the model and the observed tree: red = good fit, yellow and green = intermediate fit, blue = poor fit. Each is based on 1,000 simulations. These small units are assembled into sets with differing values of StartN and EndN to form the grid of intermediate-sized rectangles separated by grey/white borders. This grid shows differing Times when expansion ended and Length of expansion. The units with a TMRCA > 20,000 years ago are marked with black squares.

  3. Length of Expansion in Years

  4. Supplementary Figure 2. Fit between model and observed data – E1b1a. The color of each of the smallest rectangular units indicates the value of AND measuring the fit between the model and the observed tree: red = good fit, yellow and green = intermediate fit, blue = poor fit. Each is based on 1,000 simulations. These small units are assembled into sets with differing values of StartN and EndN to form the grid of intermediate-sized rectangles separated by grey/white borders. This grid shows differing Times when expansion ended and Length of expansion. The units with a TMRCA > 20,000 years ago are marked with black squares.

  5. Length of Expansion in Years

  6. Supplementary Figure 3. Fit between model and observed data – E1b1a. The color of each of the smallest rectangular units indicates the value of AND measuring the fit between the model and the observed tree: red = good fit, yellow and green = intermediate fit, blue = poor fit. Each is based on 1,000 simulations. These small units are assembled into sets with differing values of StartN and EndN to form the grid of intermediate-sized rectangles separated by grey/white borders. This grid shows differing Times when expansion ended and Length of expansion. The units with a TMRCA > 20,000 years ago are marked with black squares.

  7. Length of Expansion in Years

  8. Supplementary Figure 4. Fit between model and observed data – E1b1a. The color of each of the smallest rectangular units indicates the value of AND measuring the fit between the model and the observed tree: red = good fit, yellow and green = intermediate fit, blue = poor fit. Each is based on 1,000 simulations. These small units are assembled into sets with differing values of StartN and EndN to form the grid of intermediate-sized rectangles separated by grey/white borders. This grid shows differing Times when expansion ended and Length of expansion. The units with a TMRCA > 20,000 years ago are marked with black squares.

  9. Length of Expansion in Years

  10. Supplementary Figure 5. Fit between model and observed data – E1b1a. The color of each of the smallest rectangular units indicates the value of AND measuring the fit between the model and the observed tree: red = good fit, yellow and green = intermediate fit, blue = poor fit. Each is based on 1,000 simulations. These small units are assembled into sets with differing values of StartN and EndN to form the grid of intermediate-sized rectangles separated by grey/white borders. This grid shows differing Times when expansion ended and Length of expansion. The units with a TMRCA > 20,000 years ago are marked with black squares.

  11. Length of Expansion in Years

  12. Supplementary Figure 6. Fit between model and observed data – E1b1a. The color of each of the smallest rectangular units indicates the value of AND measuring the fit between the model and the observed tree: red = good fit, yellow and green = intermediate fit, blue = poor fit. Each is based on 1,000 simulations. These small units are assembled into sets with differing values of StartN and EndN to form the grid of intermediate-sized rectangles separated by grey/white borders. This grid shows differing Times when expansion ended and Length of expansion. The units with a TMRCA > 20,000 years ago are marked with black squares.

  13. Length of Expansion in Years

  14. Supplementary Figure 1. Fit between model and observed data – R1b. The color of each of the smallest rectangular units indicates the value of AND measuring the fit between the model and the observed tree: red = good fit, yellow and green = intermediate fit, blue = poor fit. Each is based on 1,000 simulations. These small units are assembled into sets with differing values of StartN and EndN to form the grid of intermediate-sized rectangles separated by grey/white borders. This grid shows differing Times when expansion ended and Length of expansion. The units with a TMRCA > 15,000 years ago are marked with black squares.

  15. Length of Expansion in Years

  16. Supplementary Figure 2. Fit between model and observed data – R1b. The color of each of the smallest rectangular units indicates the value of AND measuring the fit between the model and the observed tree: red = good fit, yellow and green = intermediate fit, blue = poor fit. Each is based on 1,000 simulations. These small units are assembled into sets with differing values of StartN and EndN to form the grid of intermediate-sized rectangles separated by grey/white borders. This grid shows differing Times when expansion ended and Length of expansion. The units with a TMRCA > 15,000 years ago are marked with black squares.

  17. Length of Expansion in Years

  18. Supplementary Figure 3. Fit between model and observed data – R1b. The color of each of the smallest rectangular units indicates the value of AND measuring the fit between the model and the observed tree: red = good fit, yellow and green = intermediate fit, blue = poor fit. Each is based on 1,000 simulations. These small units are assembled into sets with differing values of StartN and EndN to form the grid of intermediate-sized rectangles separated by grey/white borders. This grid shows differing Times when expansion ended and Length of expansion. The units with a TMRCA > 15,000 years ago are marked with black squares.

  19. Length of Expansion in Years

  20. Supplementary Figure 4. Fit between model and observed data – R1b. The color of each of the smallest rectangular units indicates the value of AND measuring the fit between the model and the observed tree: red = good fit, yellow and green = intermediate fit, blue = poor fit. Each is based on 1,000 simulations. These small units are assembled into sets with differing values of StartN and EndN to form the grid of intermediate-sized rectangles separated by grey/white borders. This grid shows differing Times when expansion ended and Length of expansion. The units with a TMRCA > 15,000 years ago are marked with black squares.

  21. Length of Expansion in Years

  22. Supplementary Figure 5. Fit between model and observed data – R1b. The color of each of the smallest rectangular units indicates the value of AND measuring the fit between the model and the observed tree: red = good fit, yellow and green = intermediate fit, blue = poor fit. Each is based on 1,000 simulations. These small units are assembled into sets with differing values of StartN and EndN to form the grid of intermediate-sized rectangles separated by grey/white borders. This grid shows differing Times when expansion ended and Length of expansion. The units with a TMRCA > 15,000 years ago are marked with black squares.

  23. Length of Expansion in Years

  24. Supplementary Figure 6. Fit between model and observed data – R1b. The color of each of the smallest rectangular units indicates the value of AND measuring the fit between the model and the observed tree: red = good fit, yellow and green = intermediate fit, blue = poor fit. Each is based on 1,000 simulations. These small units are assembled into sets with differing values of StartN and EndN to form the grid of intermediate-sized rectangles separated by grey/white borders. This grid shows differing Times when expansion ended and Length of expansion. The units with a TMRCA > 15,000 years ago are marked with black squares.

  25. Length of Expansion in Years

  26. Supplementary Figure 7. Fit between model and observed data – R1b. The color of each of the smallest rectangular units indicates the value of AND measuring the fit between the model and the observed tree: red = good fit, yellow and green = intermediate fit, blue = poor fit. Each is based on 1,000 simulations. These small units are assembled into sets with differing values of StartN and EndN to form the grid of intermediate-sized rectangles separated by grey/white borders. This grid shows differing Times when expansion ended and Length of expansion. The units with a TMRCA > 15,000 years ago are marked with black squares.

  27. Length of Expansion in Years

  28. Supplementary Figure 8. Fit between model and observed data – R1b. The color of each of the smallest rectangular units indicates the value of AND measuring the fit between the model and the observed tree: red = good fit, yellow and green = intermediate fit, blue = poor fit. Each is based on 1,000 simulations. These small units are assembled into sets with differing values of StartN and EndN to form the grid of intermediate-sized rectangles separated by grey/white borders. This grid shows differing Times when expansion ended and Length of expansion. The units with a TMRCA > 15,000 years ago are marked with black squares.

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