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Cochise College CENTER FOR ECONOMIC RESEARCH. Sierra Vista Economic Outlook 2011. Gross Domestic Product. Seasonally Adjusted Annual Rate. Inflation (CPI). Compared to same month previous year. National Outlook. Inflation/high oil will weigh on consumer confidence—may slow growth
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Cochise CollegeCENTER FOR ECONOMIC RESEARCH Sierra Vista Economic Outlook 2011
Gross Domestic Product Seasonally Adjusted Annual Rate
Inflation (CPI) Compared to same month previous year
National Outlook • Inflation/high oil will weigh on consumer confidence—may slow growth • Excess reserves present inflation risk • Much depends on international events • Replacement purchases will help growth
The Local Economy Cochise County & Sierra Vista
Retail Sales Growth Inflation adjusted; compared to same month previous year
Retail Sales Recent Activity • Cochise County • 2011: -7.9% * • 2010: -4.8% • 2009: -4.2% • 2008: -6.5% • 2007: -1.3% • Sierra Vista • 2011: -17.8% * • 2010: -1.1% • 2009: -1.4% • 2008: -6.6% • 2007: 2.6% * January only; comparison to same period the previous year
Restaurant and Bar Sales Growth Inflation adjusted; compared to same month previous year
Restaurant & Bar Sales Recent Activity • Cochise County • 2011: 2.7% * • 2010: 0.0% • 2009: 0.3% • 2008: 0.2% • 2007: 0.1% • Sierra Vista • 2011: -0.6% * • 2010: 3.1% • 2009: 2.1% • 2008: -2.0% • 2007: 2.9% * January only; comparison to same period the previous year
Accommodation Sales Growth Inflation adjusted; compared to same month previous year
Accommodation Sales Recent Activity • Cochise County • 2011: -10.7% * • 2010: 8.3% • 2009: -9.0% • 2008: 1.0% • 2007: 19.7% • Sierra Vista • 2011: 19.5% * • 2010: 11.0% • 2009: -2.0% • 2008: 19.4% • 2007: 21.1% * January only; comparison to same period the previous year
Sales Outlook • Instability in countywide/city retail sales; trend is flat in negative territory • Continued instability in countywide/city restaurant and bar sales • Strong growth trend in city accommodation sales; instability countywide • Still much uncertainty; inflation danger
Unemployment Rates * Seasonally adjusted; U.S., Jan-Mar; AZ, Jan-Feb
Cochise CountyNonfarm Job Growth Compared to same month previous year
Cochise CountyJob Gains/Losses By Industry 12 months ended February 2011 * Includes mining
Cochise CountyJob Growth Rate By Industry 12 months ended February 2011 * Includes mining
Employment Outlook Local unemployment still on the rise Job losses have moderated, but continue Much uncertainty remains
New Home Construction Single Family Residential Building Permits
New Home Construction (Sierra Vista) Single Family Residential Building Permits
Median Home Price (SITE-BUILT) *Jan-Mar only
Outlook • New residential construction recovery stalled • Foreclosures becoming more of a problem • Existing home sales on the rise from foreclosures/lower prices • Commercial construction boom coming to end
Conclusion Recovery picking up steam nationally, slow locally Employment showing improvement Foreclosures helping existing home sales volume (but not price), hurting new construction